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Quail Hollow Club - Charlotte, North Carolina
Par 72, 7442 Yards
This week the PGA Tour travels to Charlotte, North Carolina and the Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship. The course is home to probably the toughest 3 hole closing stretch on the PGA Tour. The Green Mile, as it's known as, takes players through a 3 hole stretch of HELL. Hole 16 is a Par 4, 480 yard hole with a fairway bunker which requires an accurate drive to get any chance at a GIR on the most difficult putting surface on the course. Hole 17 is a Par 3, 2017 Yard hole which requires a 200+ yard carry over water to a sloping green. Hole 18 is a Par 4, 478 Yard hole which players will be happy to get par on. Tough tee shot with water on the left and bunkers on the right leading to a green protected by hazards on both sides. Yikes! Scores over the last few years have been -14, -8, -14, -15, -15. With the setup of this course, the players will be looking to get most of their scoring through the 4 Par 5's which can all be reached if you have distance off the tee. I will be targeting players who are ranked highly in Driving Distance, GIR, Par 5 Performance, Scrambling and Strokes Gained: Putting. Good luck this week.
My first Tier this week only has 9 golfers in it so I am really focused on getting a T5 from all 3. I actually like the chances of all the golfers in Tier 1 this week for different reasons. I am fading Rory this week(hope it doesn't bite me in the ass!!)because his price is $2800 more than the next highest golfer. He is in the middle of a very busy schedule and this seems like a week in the middle of it all where he might not perform up to his price. I will be highlighting 2 guys highly ranked in the 5 stat categories and 1 guy who is a horse for the course.
Patrick Reed - $9100 (Vegas Odds – 34/1)
Reed comes in first in my rankings this week for a few reasons. He is having a great year with a WIN to start the year followed by 9 Top 30's & 2 Top 10's. Reed has played here twice and finished T32 both times. He is a much better golfer now than he was 2 and 3 years ago so I love his chances at placing at least T10 and a great shot to win. With all the young guns winning big tournaments lately(Spieth, Mcilroy, Fowler) you know he will be fired up this weekend. When looking at his stat ranks going into this week he is elite in Par 5 performance, Scrambling and Putting. I will have multiple shares of Reed this week.
Hideki Matsuyama - $10,600 (Vegas Odds – 26/1)
I gave you Matsuyama last week as a Tier 2 pick and he finished T17 and if not for a 74/72 Fir/Sat he would have been there in the cluster at the end. His current form is great and he is very consistent(T17,T9,5th,T21,T23,T4 last 6). He played this tournament for the first time last year and finished T38. I can see him improving on that result this week as his stats ranks are elite this year. If he can find a the cup with a few putts this week he could definitely grab the win.
Phil Mickelson - $10,400 (Vegas Odds – 21/1)
To close out Tier 1 I am going with the Phil Mickelson. Lefty absolutely loves playing this course and has the results to prove it. He has never missed a cut here in 11 attempts with 7 Top 10's. This seems like a good spot for him to finally ink the win here. He missed the cut last week at the PLAYERS, which might drive a people away form him. Use this to your advantage as before the MC he finished T2 at the MASTERS and 4 Top 30's before that. He is right up there in Driving Distance as always and average in the other stats.
There are 20 golfers in Tier 2 and all between $8000-$8900. I will highlight 3 guys I like out of the group. You may recognize 2 of them as I wrote about them last week.
Daniel Berger - $8500 (Vegas Odds – 81/1)
I put Berger 1st in Tier 2 mainly because of his missed cut last week. That, combined with his increase in price should drive his ownership down a bit and makes him a nice GPP play. Looking past the MC from last week he he picked up 4 Top 10's and 6 Top 20's this year. He is a poised young man and with his game he is ready to strike. When looking at his average rank of all 5 stats I am targeting this week Berger 38th which is 3rd among all golfers in this tournament.
Ryan Moore - $8000 (Vegas Odds – 41/1)
Moore is my #1 value play across the board. His odds are similar to guys that are in the $9K range and his course history here is pretty solid over the last 4 years(T18,T6,T5,T33). He also missed the cut last week but has a nice run going before with 5 T22 or better in 7 attempts with no missed cuts. He is the first guy I am writing about that isn't a Driving Distance guy but averages 88th in all 5 rank categories. At this price point he will probably be fairly high owned so I will probably only use in cash games.
Justin Thomas - $8600 (Vegas Odds – 51/1)
Gave you Thomas last week in my Tier 2 write up and he didn't disappoint with a T24 and was with a 75 Sunday and 73 Thursday. The upside with this kid is amazing. He has missed 3 cuts this year but also has 5 finishes of T12 or better. His stats profile fits the bill for what I am looking for and I will be fitting him in a few GPP lineups this week again.
This is another Tier with alot of golfers separated by less than $1000. I will narrow the Tier down to 3 this week.
Hunter Mahan - $7900 (Vegas Odds – 51/1)
Another guy who's Vegas Odds don't match the price. There are other golfers around him sporting 80-120/1 odds. Most of those guy don't come in with the talent and consistency Mahan does either. Before missing the cut at the PLAYERS he finished T9 back to back at the Match Play Championship and the MASTERS. He has made 7/11 cuts here with not the greatest results the past 3 years but 3 T22 or better the 3 years before that. I believe Vegas has placed his odds so high due to his great stat ranks so far this year. Check them out. Pretty solid across the board.
Jason Kokrak - $7100 (Vegas Odds – 101/1)
Ok, I realize I am picking alot of the same guys as last week. For some of them it is due to staying on the wagon, while for others its trying to get on the wagon before it takes off again. The latter is the case with Kokrak. He has missed 2 of his last 6 cuts but when he plays the weekend he is grabbing top finishes(T18,T11,T6,T7). This makes for a nice GPP "boom or bust" play. His stats fit the profile as well.
Martin Laird - $7300 (Vegas Odds – 101/1)
The final Tier 3 pick this week is another bomber who is ranked high when it comes to average ranking of my 5 stats I am targeting. Laird missed the cut at the Zurich but before that has a streak of 7 straight cuts made highlighted by 3 straight Top 20's back in Late Jan/Early Feb. He has had mixed results here(T30,Cut,T26,cut,cut last 5) but with his current form I think he can get inside the Top 30 this week. At this price it makes a nice value play for cash or GPP.
Aaron Baddeley - $6400 (Vegas Odds – 251/1)
My low priced GPP gamble this week is Baddeley. He has been up and down this year and his price reflects this inconsistency. He has had mixed results here at Quail Hollow but made his last 2 cuts here. When looking at his average stats ranking this week he comes in at 65 which is 12th best in the field this week. I will definitely be using him a few times in GPP contests.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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