Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 5/11/15

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards

Analysis

If you'd said game three was going to go down like that then you are either crazy or a liar, or both. The Wizards, sans John Wall, somehow found a way to go up big on the Hawks on their way to a big blowout. Then they found a way to squander said lead, having the game come down to a buzzer beater by Paul Pierce. It was a ridiculous game and a huge, huge knock on the Hawks that they couldn't take care of a Wizards team without it's best player. I know Millsap was sick and played limited minutes, but come on. It was a let down game no matter which way you shake it.

A lot hinges on game four. The Wizards gave themselves some breathing room in terms of Wall's injury as they extended the chance that he gets to see the court again. It seems unlikely of course, but not completely out of the question. Meanwhile, the Hawks have a ton of pressure on them. They basically need to win a road game against a team that for sure has a lot of confidence right now as they appear to be playing with house money.

Top Plays

Jeff Teague - FD 6900 DK 7000
He's anything but consistent and struggled through a tougher shooting game last time out. But he also saw an increased volume with Millsap off the court for so much of the game. I only wish he played a few more minutes, but the Hawks do play Schroder for longer stretches. If I knew Teague's minutes would be at about 35 or even a tick higher he'd be a must play. As it stands he is just a real good one at his current salaries.

Nene Hilario - FD 3800 DK 4200
He only needs the minutes. And last game he got them. What did he do with this new-found run? A 17/7/4 line that crushed his price tags. He was the play of the day and is wasn't close. He was definitely buoyed by Millsap's relative absence so I'm not convinced a repeat performance is coming. But if this game gave him a boost then you can definitely roll him again in game four.

Bradley Beal - FD 7700 DK 7900
Because it's basically between him and Klay Thompson. The latter has been reduced to a shadow of his former self so we will go Beal. He took way less shots than I thought with Wall out. But I can see him jacking shots up all over the place in this game as that is generally his style.

Value Plays

Otto Porter - FD 5100 DK 5600
Paul Pierce - FD 4900 DK 5300
These guys remain the safest at the small forward position because their minutes and roles in the offensive. Though it was Pierce who hit the game winner, it's been Porter who's made the leap in this series. The last two games have seen him average a 16/9/5. He will be a popular start and with good reason. I'm fine starting them both on two small forward sites.

Kent Bazemore - FD 2000 DK 2300
This is a deep dive if you are going to shoot some upside. He has an offensive game that allows him to put up some points in short stretches. Only seeing minutes in the teens but there is a scenario (especially if Demarre Carroll can't go) where he could really bust it out of the box.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors

Analysis:

Man these playoffs are awesome. Despite the injuries derailing some team's chances and hopes, the games have been competitive and exciting. Except game three in this series where the Grizzlies just seemed to ruin the Warriors. They took Golden State completely out of their offensive rhythm while sicking Tony Allen on Klay Thompson and reducing the latter to the fetal position. It was tough to watch the Warriors on some possessions as it looked like they had no hope of scoring. They made a flurry of shots late to pull it close, but Memphis was simply too much and too good.

One game does not a series make, but the Grizzlies are for sure in the Warriors' heads right now. They've dictated the pace and made the Warriors adapt to their game. It's been fun and tough to watch at the same time.

Top Plays:

Stephen Curry - FD 10100 DK 10300
I don't subscribe to a gambler's fallacy of a guy being "due" because of past performance one way or the other. But it doesn't stand to reason that Steph can keep up with how bad he's been shooting from beyond the arc. The last two games have him 4-21 from three. I know the Grizzlies are giving him very tough looks. And he's forced some shots. But this is Curry and he's one of the best ever in this phase of the game. The series isn't over and his last two games have kept his price in check. This is a time to buy him. He's the most expensive play on the slate and I'll happily pay for him.

Zach Randolph - FD 7200 DK 7500
This guy's been a round mound of consistency in this series. Look at the freaking game log. The games are unnervingly similar. 36 minutes, 20 points, 8 rebounds 4 assists. No game has deviated more than two off any of those numbers. It's crazy. No reason to think it stops tonight as he's feasting on Draymond and company.

Marc Gasol - FD 8700 DK 8100
Because you have to play a center and he's the most consistent in terms of performance and minutes. That's really all I'm looking at with Gasol. There aren't a ton of big money options on this slate so fitting his salary isn't much of a thing.

Value Plays:

Harrison Barnes - FD 4300 DK 4500
The minutes have really been there for him the last two games and he saw a slight jump in shot attempts last game with Klay shadowed around the perimeter. The minutes are the key consideration for Barnes. He makes things interesting when deciding between him and the Wiz small forwards.

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