Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 5/10/15

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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. the Chicago Bulls

Analysis

Oh God, I don't know how Cleveland will bounce back from a heart-breaking loss in game three, but I can't wait to find out! Watching Rose bank home the game winner after JR Smith hit the clutchest three of his career was just insane. I'm not sure why I'm ranting all fan-like when none of this makes any difference for daily fantasy basketball purposes, but leave me alone! I'm psyched, here!

But we did learn a lot about how these teams intend to deploy their players in game 3, which is really where we're making our money. The major intrigue here is the Gasol injury. If he's out, it really shakes things up. Let's get to it.

Top Plays

Derrick Rose - FD 8300 DK 7500 DFSTR 6000
Rose finally had a break-out fantasy performance in game three, and it happened in spite of him shooting a dismal 10 of 26 from the field. One thing is clear - the Bulls are riding Rose to the finish line, and he's happy to go down (or up) swinging. I expect more of the same against Kyrie's less than stellar D in game 4.

LeBron James - FD 11300 DK 11200 DFSTR 9200
We're now on 5 straight playoff games with 52 or more fantasy points, and getting the best player in the world who also presently has the highest usage seems like a pretty reasonable bargain. Lebron's basically like a rich man's version of Rose in this series - insane volume, low efficiency, but just has the ball in his hands so much that it's hard to ignore him. I'll go ahead and call him the safest big money play of the day, and with some nice cheap options, I'll try and play him wherever I can. A full LeBron God-mode game is coming. I think this will be it.

Nikola Mirotic - FD 2000 DK 3300 DFSTR 4800
If Gasol is out for game 4, Mirotic becomes the must-play of must-plays. I am not sure why FanDuel elected to change its pricing algorithm, but its left some glaring inefficiencies in its wake. Mirotic would be case #1. Playing him means you can spend up elsewhere, and if he's not a 100% start for game 4 with Gasol out, the faders are simply dead money.

Quick note: Kyrie Irving saw a price jump after game one and I don't know if I'm going back there at his tag - especially after seeing him defer to LeBron in games 2 and 3.

Value Plays

Tristan Thompson - FD 5300 DK 5000 DFSTR 4400
Thompson played 41 minutes in game 3, and it's clear that the Cavs like his max-effort game down low. He put up a fantastic line on these prices - 10 and 13 with 3 blocks - and he'll be out there patrolling the paint for 40+ minutes again here.

Mike Dunleavy - FD 4300 DK 4900 DFSTR
We gave you Dunleavy in the last game of this series, and he put up better than 7x points per dollar on this price tag. It's clear that he fits in to whatever Thibs' scheme is for this series, and

Considered: Iman Shumpert. His minutes didn't take a hit in Smith's return, but his usage was way down. I may look elsewhere, but I think his game 3 performance was beneath any floor we should reasonably expect of him if the minutes stay this high.

Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Analysis:

I can't explain game 3 any better than anyone else. Austin Rivers goes all Jason McElwain on the Rockets, and suddenly the Clips are up 2-1 after getting 21 minutes of CP3 through three games. Word is that he'll be back for more minutes in game four, which throws a monkey wrench in everyone's projections - but we'll do our best.

Top Plays:

Blake Griffin - FD 11300 DK 10500 DFSTR
Griffin's averaging 59 fantasy points a game in non-blowouts during the playoffs - the highest of any player, by far. It's clear that the Rockets have no answer whatsoever for him, and the only thing that could hold him down is another blow-out. No need to ramble here - just play the man.

Dwight Howard - FD 9000 DK 8300 DFSTR 6700
Super-Dwight had a relatively quiet game 3, but he's still gone off for better than 47 fantasy points per game in this series, and it's clear that he's going to be anchoring the Rockets on the glass and in the paint on D. There's upside for more if they elect to use him a little bit more aggressively on offense, and since their lone win in the series came when Dwight had his best scoring game, it stands to reason that they may do so.

Trevor Ariza - FD 6200 DK 5700 DFSTR
Ariza was bad in game 3, but most of that came down to a cold night from the field and randomly not getting any boards. I'll trust the totals he put up in the first 2 games of the series, where he paid 5x points per dollar in each. Still a great play.

I won't be playing James Harden once again. He's just the worst big money guy on a points per dollar basis with the way he matches up against the Clips. That's all there is to it.

Value Plays:

Jason Terry - FD 3100 DK 3700
Playing 28-30 minutes per game with Beverley sidelined, and it looks like his floor is going to be 5x points per dollar on these prices. Another guy you can get in at an otherwise awful position and make a run at the big money plays elsewhere. I'll play him almost everywhere, I imagine.

J.J. Redick - FD 5000 DK 5300
We wrote this in the last game:
Don't be surprised if JJ Redick has a coming out party one of these games. He's running bad from the field, and still playing a fortune of minutes. A huge game could be right around the corner. Well, you saw what happened. I don't see any reason for that not to continue in game 4.

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