Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 5/9/15

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors

Analysis

The Warriors enter the Grindhouse after being somewhat stunned in Game Two. I'll be honest, I thought the Warriors would essentially coast to the Western Conference Semifinals and I don't think I was alone there. But the Grizzlies came out swinging and upset the Warriors on their home court. A big part of that was the play of Mike Conley and Tony Allen on opposite ends of the court. Conley shot an unreal 75% from the field (50% from three) while Allen exasperated Klay Thompson on the other end.

All that being said, there is some reason to expect the Warriors to bounce back in game three. They shot only 23% from three in game two. And I don't care who the defense is, you aren't going to get many games in which Steph and Klay shoot 3-17 from beyond the arc. That was basically the difference in the game. That isn't to say it was bad luck, the Grizz has a plan for sure. But I think game two proves a wake up call for GSW more than anything.

Top Plays

Stephen Curry
He's playing tons of minutes and that isn't likely to change for this game. It's tough to totally trust the other options on the Warriors beyond Steph (the team has admitted as much in the last two days). He will continue seeing a high volume of shots and should be played in your lineups as the highest upside play on the slate.

Zach Randolph
I think you end up with him almost by default on this slate. He is much cheaper than Millsap and putting up somewhat similar numbers. Golden State is a great defensive team, but the one area that were below average defending was the opposing power forward who put up above average production during the regular season.

Marc Gasol
Like Z-Bo, I basically have Gasol on here by default. None of the centers on this slate are particularly exciting or offer too much upside. I'll take Gasol because I think the game will be closer and he doesn't cost as much as Horford. That latter piece is as much about his value as anything else considering that fantasy-wise the dudes aren't dissimilar.

Draymond Green
Power Forward is just so bad today, and you are going to have to pick someone. If you are picking between the poo-poo platter of dudes today, our projection system likes Green a lot better than Millsap. It's expensive, and you may be better off trying to find a cheap guy who's going to get minutes, but for better or worse, I'll likely roll with Green in cash games.

Value Plays

Courtney Lee
He found a way to get up a bunch of shots in game two. If he get 35 minutes and double digit shot attempts then you really like his price on this slate.

Harrison Barnes
He's playing a lot of minutes, and he has posted better than 5x points per dollar in three of his last four. He was a little more limited in game two, and still didn't kill you. There really aren't a lot of great small forward options today, but I like Barnes.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards

Analysis:

The Wizards were dealt the blow of all blows when it was announced John Wall had broken some bones in his hand and wrist. And while that obviously sounds terrible, it isn't so terrible that the Wizards have definitively ruled him out for game three, yet. I don't expect Wall to play and that's going to make an interesting minutes situation for Washington. I'll get to that a little bit below.

Obviously the Wizards are in big trouble without Wall. This showed in game two when they were effectively blown out by Atlanta who really pulled away in the fourth quarter. Consider too that Washington shot over 50% from three and still lost by 16. While Washington will be playing in front of the home crowd, Atlanta might just have too much firepower. The Wizards need Wall.

Top Plays:

Ramon Sessions
While his price is a punt price, I'm putting him in the elite play category simply because this kind of pricing opportunity doesn't come along very often in playoff DFS. You need to take advantage and I'd venture a guess that (if Wall doesn't play) anyone not playing Sessions in your league is darn close to dead money. He's far and away the best points per dollar play on this slate if he's starting and playing forty minutes. It isn't close.

Jeff Teague
A rough night of shooting is the only thing that kept him from shredding his price in game two. He put up a 25% from the field and still ended up with 9/8/7 line while playing minutes in the mid 30's. I think he'll see the same shot volume in this one and is a fantastic mid range price.

Bradley Beal
Was already a favorite to take a ton of shots and play a million minutes. Now he's come out and said that he needs to put the team on his back with Wall shelved. Translation? He might put up 30 shots. Beal is the one guy you can count on to see every minute he can handle, blowout be damned.
 

Value Plays:

Otto Porter
Value play, and a top play as well. Porter's bizarre playoff coming out party continued in their last match-up, as he built upon his 6x points per dollar performance in game one with a staggering 9x points per dollar performance in game 2. God bless Porter, because given the terrible options at some other positions today, Porter will allow you to spend up elsewhere.

Paul Pierce
Weird to call him a value play considering how many minutes and how well he's playing for the Wiz. Is, for sure, effected by the loss of Wall but the price is still too low for how integral part of the offense he is now.
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