Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 5/8/15

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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. the Chicago Bulls

Analysis

After a vintage LeBron soul-crush, the series is knotted up at 1-1, and it's really looking like anyone's series. Side note - is it not crazy how mental the game is, even at the very highest levels? LeBron goes from shooting 2 shots in the first quarter in game 1 to shooting 29 in game two, demanding the ball, and going max-effort on the Bulls like it was a mid-2000s Cavs playoff run instead of a 2015 run.

Now, with JR Smith returning, it's relatively tough to say what the Cavs will do minutes wise in this game. But we'll venture our best guess!

 

Top Plays

Derrick Rose - FD 8000 DK 7500 DFSTR 6000
Rose has yet to have a truly transcendent performance in this series, but he's been solid in each of the first two games, at least from a fantasy perspective. Interestingly, there is room for a LOT more fantasy wise if everything clicks for one game. Over the first two, Rose has jacked 46 shots, and made just 17 of them. Now, some of that could be him pressing. But it seems crazy to think that a rate that bad should continue, and if it doesn't, you can build in 5x-6x upside on this still reasonable price against Kyrie's less than effective defense.

LeBron James - FD 11300 DK 11200 DFSTR 9200
Welp, it's looking like James isn't going to let this series slip away without his hand in things. LeBron put up 29 shots in game two, and it almost looked like he was just getting started. We're now on four straight playoff games with 52 or more fantasy points, and getting the best player in the world who also presently has the highest usage seems like a pretty reasonable bargain.

Quick note: Kyrie Irving saw a price jump after game one and I don't know if I'm going back there at his tag - especially after seeing him defer to LeBron in game 2.

 

Value Plays

Iman Shumpert - FD 4700 DK 4700 DFSTR 3600
JR Smith
Shumpert has proven he's a guy that the Cavs can go to war with, and with 5x and 6x points per dollar on these salaries, he's proven to daily fantasy owners that he can go to war as well. Now, we're obviously worried about the groin situation, but he's still priced so safely that I am willing to roll the dice if the Cavs keep him in the starting lineup. If he's out and JR Smith gets the nod, Smith becomes a pretty clear play.

Mike Dunleavy - FD 4200 DK 4900 DFSTR
Dunleavy was trash in game two, but to be fair, LeBron was busy going all GodMode and Dunleavy didn't get his full run of minutes. Those should return in game three, and I think game 1's performance is a reasonable expectation, meaning he'd be a sick points per dollar play.

 

Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Analysis:

I should probably post the Gchat transcript we had the other night when Doc took DeAndre out of the game because of two quick fouls. We were just losing our minds. Adhering to old school NBA "strategy" of taking a guy out early so as to not incur more fouls is already a losing strategy. It was even more of one for the Clippers because the Rockets became a totally different team on offense when Jordan wasn't on the court. Howard was able to work down low with impunity and Harden was able to penetrate more. Add on that in his twenty-five minutes DeAndre went 16/12, was the only starter with a +/- on the positive end (+3) and finished with two fouls to spare just further illustrates what a mess this was in terms of strategy.

On the flip side, Kevin McHale tried his very hardest to see Rivers' mistake and call by benching Harden for most of the third and you saw a game in which neither coach appeared interested in winning. Now we get a game three with CP3 still doubtful and all bets off from a weird coaching standpoint. Should be interesting.

 

Top Plays:

Blake Griffin - FD 11300 DK 10500 DFSTR
This one needs no explanation. Until something drastic happens to the guy (like he gets hit by a bus or something) I see no reason to even consider fading him in any type of format. He put up a 34/15 in game two and is basically the entire Clips team when Paul isn't around. I suppose if CP3 were back I'd knock Blake a bit in the usage department. But the Rockets really have no answer for him.

Dwight Howard - FD 9000 DK 8300 DFSTR 6700
Got a huge boost when DeAndre sat for long stretches and finished game two with a 24/16. The Clips made him pay a bit at the free throw line as he went only 8-21. But all in all he is imposing his will on the Clips, and frankly, he's been doing it all playoffs long. Welcome back, Super-Dwight. Expect more of the same in game three.

Trevor Ariza - FD 6200 DK 5700 DFSTR
Ariza has now topped 5x on his price in the first two games of the series, and it's clear that the Clippers' wings just don't have enough depth with Paul down to keep track of everyone. And if the Rockets are going to play him 38-45 minutes, it will be awfully tough for him not to continue this against a Clippers' team that is by far weakest at defending the small forward position.

Look, you can't start all the high-priced guys. Because of that I think fading James Harden is ok, though it's tough to watch when he's not in your lineup.

 

Value Plays:

Austin Rivers - FD 3600 DK 2200
Jamal Crawford - FD 5100 DK 4500

Doug gave you these guys when he wrote up this match-up the last time around, and not a whole lot has changed since. Jamal went out and built upon his game 1 performance, exceeding 6x points per dollar and being a mandatory part of winning lineups. Rivers kinda went all Rivers on us in the last game, but there's still considerable safety and value in a guy who will have the ball in his hands a ton. I'd call Jamal a must, and Rivers and interesting look.

Jason Terry - FD 3000 DK 3700
Only on here because of the price and the minutes. He doesn't do a ton on the court, but he can help fit in another higher priced star if that's how you want to take your lineups. He went ahead and put up 5x points per dollar on this paltry number last time around, and I don't see any reason that can't continue.

Matt Barnes - FD 4500 DK 4400
Barnes cooled off considerably after his transcendent game 1, but still managed to put up 23.7 FanDuel points in a stat-stuffing effort, and that after going 0-5 from 3 and fouling out early. He's definitely got another big game in him on these prices, especially if Chris is out and the other guys need to step it up.

Don't be surprised if JJ Redick has a coming out party one of these games. He's running bad from the field, and still playing a fortune of minutes. A huge game could be right around the corner.

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