Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/3/15

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Pitcher

James Shields - FD 8600 DK 9900 DFSTR 8500
I gave you all Morrow against the Rockies in Petco last night, and as of this writing, I have no idea how that turned out. Regardless, Shields is a pitcher in a totally different league from Morrow, and he's been utterly lights out this season. The 12 Ks/9 are insane, and he's actually running bad in terms of homers allowed per fly ball, so his overall line could look even better. I made this case yesterday - but the Rox are 15th in the league in terms of road wOBA against righties, and Petco will obviously make them even worse than their standard outing. I think Matzek could also have a hell of a time against the new-look Padres' righty-stack, and I think this game actually could get out of hand in the Dads' favor.

Johnny Cueto - FD 10600 DK 11000 DFSTR 9600
I think Shields has considerably more upside, but it's hard to ignore what Cueto can offer from a safety perspective. He's averaging more than 7 innings a start this season, and has posted a modest 7.6:1 K:BB rate in that time. Teheran is a fine starter on the other side in his own right, but he's struggled a bit this season, and he may have a tough time against the Reds' hard hitting left handers. But the opposing pitcher isn't usually a huge consideration with Cueto. If you can get a pitcher who's going like this, and find ways to fit the money in good elsewhere, it's usually a good buy.

Everyone will play one of the above guys, but if you feel like going contrarian, Jason Hammel makes for an interesting play. His 23 Ks against 1 BB are fantastic, and throwing with that kind of control carries a lot of upside. Julio Teheran is also a system favorite, but the upside is limited by the fact that Cueto is just so good, and getting the win would be tough. Still, no one will play him, and he could make for an interesting GPP play.

 

Catcher

Evan Gattis - FD 3200 DK 4000 DFSTR If you're a subscriber to our projection system, you hopefully kept a steady hand with Gattis as he struggled earlier this season. He's still a lefty killer like you read about (and just bombed a homer as I'm writing this), and while Happ has shown promise early this season, he won't be able to keep Gattis down in Houston. Huge, huge upside here - and Happ's low strike-out total should push Gattis' floor a lot higher than usual.

Derek Norris - FD 3000 DK 3600 DFSTR 5800
Norris is basically the same exact player as Gattis, and is situation is very similar today. Matzek is a worse pitcher than Happ, but San Diego is a worse place to hit, making Norris rank slightly behind Gattis from a points per dollar perspective. Still, Matzek's utter lack of command will play right into Norris' strengths, and he has bell tower power in the right match-up. This is one of those.

Brian McCann - FD 3300 DK 4200 DFSTR 6200
Another situation just like the above guys, but arguably the worst spot of the three. McCann will be hitting in the best park of the bunch, and has had a couple of great fantasy performances in the last week. So what's keeping him down? I can't believe I'm saying this, but Joe Kelly. While he's a righty (and McCann prefers righties), he's actually flashed a plus K rate this season, and he's a decidedly tougher spot than Matzek or Happ above. McCann has a similar ceiling to the above guys, but a much lower floor. Hence the ranking!

First Base

David Ortiz - FD 3200 DK 4800 DFSTR 6800
Wrote this about Papi last night:
While Papi hasn't put up a monster triple-slash line this season, there's still a lot to like about what he can do for you from a fantasy perspective. First, his BABIP is almost 60 points off his career levels (though we need to be a little cautious there, because he had similar luck last season too). Next, he's still hitting for plenty of power, and showing big platoon splits favoring hitting against righties.

And that was against Nathan Eovaldi. Ortiz went 2/4 with no counting stats, but the was locked in in every at bat. Today? He'll be against Adam Warren. How can I say this delicately? His 12 Ks against 8 BBs in 20 IP are less than inspiring. Dude should just be a reliever. This could be a feast for the Sox.

Albert Pujols - FD 3000 DK 4100 DFSTR 3100 I find the decline of Tim Lincecum downright awkward. We're three years into this thing, and it's like impossible to remember that he was a 240 K a year guy year in year out. Well, now he isn't. And Pujols is no Spring chicken either, but like I wrote when I recommended him last night, his BABIP just won't stay at .200 for the whole year. Well, Pujols skipped the whole "balls in play" thing against Hudson by launching a 400 foot bomb over the fence instead. Lincecum's reduced stuff will play down to Pujols' reduced bat speed, and I think he's a high floor play again today.

Chris Davis - FD 3800 DK 4500 DFSTR 6100
Full disclosure: My brother's name is Chris Davis. So I might be biased here. Okay, let's get serious. It feels odd to recommend a guy who's struck out in 38% of his at bats this year. But he's also struck out 32% of his at bats for his careers, and he's put up some huge fantasy nights. So why do I think this will be one of them? Two words: Nate Karns. His Achilles heel (aside from generally sucking) is the long ball - he's allowed a 23% hr/flyball rate for his career, and he's also struggled with his command this year. This is one of the higher upside plays I've bumped into in a while.

Also considered: Jose Abreu will be a huge play against Mike Pelfrey.

 

Second Base

Brian Dozier - FD 3200 DK 4600 DFSTR 7000
I may be the last guy in the daily fantasy baseball industry still banging the Dozier drum, but here I am. And he's been turning it on in the last week - averaging 5 fantasy points a game for the 6 games before last night's o-fer. He's done it exactly the way he did it last year, using his positionally unique combination of power and speed to put up fantasy numbers in bunches. He tops the ranks here because he's not only facing a lefty (by far his preference), but the lefty he's facing in particular. Danks has averaged a 4.6 xFIP for two seasons, and while my great-grand-pappy told me Danks was good once, it doesn't seem like it was in my lifetime. Fantastic spot to grab Dozier in all formats.

Dustin Pedroia - FD 2900 DK 4200 DFSTR 6600
We gave you Pedroia last night, and he played about as we expected. He made contact every time, and while the guys around him didn't have much luck, Dusty did manage to sneak one over the fence for us. Like Ortiz, the recommendation only doubles down in the same situation against a worse pitcher. Very high floor here if Dozier's up and down nature scares you, or you just want to grab a Red Sox stack against Warren.

Howie Kendrick - FD 3100 DK 4100 DFSTR 5600
Kendrick is thriving from a fantasy perspective in the heart of the Dodgers' order, and our projection system thinks the Dodgers are going to bruise Chase Anderson again this time around. I love this spot because Kendrick is relatively platoon neutral, but the guys around him can really throttle right handed pitching. Could be a great counting stats performance for him.

For big spenders Robby Cano is a great play again today against Bert Hernandez. Just pricey for me, and I think I can get similar upside with Dozier.

Want to punt the position? Odor Odor Odor Odor.

 

Shortstop

Disclaimer: Shorstop sucks, as usual. This is a spot to spend little and hope for the best.

Jimmy Rollins - FD 2700 DK 3500 DFSTR 5900
A lot of overlap in the last two night's picks. Probably because the prices haven't changed, and thus the opportunities are basically the same. Rollins' writeup from last night:

I've covered this here before, but I personally think Rollins looks terrific this year. His ISO is slightly up, his walks are up, and he's batting atop the league's toughest offense. His BABIP has been .80 points off of its career norms, and the way he's striking the ball, that will almost surely turn.

That write-up was based on a match-up with Jeremy Hellickson, but it applies against the league average Chase Anderson as well.

Brad Miller - FD 2300 DK 3200 DFSTR 4800
Playing a dude who bats last is always a weird call, but Miller has actually posted a respectable .736 OPS against right handers for his career, and I like the speed he's flashed this year. I think he could be in an interesting spot to produce on minimum prices by setting up the likewise lefty heavy top of the Seattle order against Hernandez.

Erick Aybar - FD 2400 DK 3300 DFSTR 5100
It'd be tough to be less exciting than Erick Aybar has been this season, but there really is still a good case here from a daily fantasy baseball perspective. He'll likely be leading off (for some reason) again against Lincecum on Sunday, and hitting in front of such notable players as Michael Trout and Alberto Pujols. And he's a season away from hitting 7 homers and swiping 16 bags. That's actually pretty good upside for a minimum priced player, and especially a shortstop. Okay, I'm bored just writing about him. Moving on.

Also considered: Asdrubal Cabrera.

Third Base

Evan Longoria - FD 3200 DK 4300 DFSTR 6300
For some reason, I sort of take it personally that Evan Longoria didn't turn in to the best player ever. Just had to throw that out there. But for all of his lack of living up to the yearly MVP upside he was purported to have, Longoria still does a number of things very well. One of them is defense, which, who cares? But the other is hitting left handed pitching. Even in a down year, Longoria managed a .351 wOBA (and .824 OPS) against left handed pitching last year, and he's firing lasers off them this season also. Chen looks for all the world like a bubble fixing to burst - his 2.78 ERA is better than 2 runs ahead of his 5.16 xFIP. Here's to hoping Longoria starts correcting that on Sunday.

Trevor Plouffe - FD 2400 DK 4000 DFSTR 5700
Plouffe is a daily DFSR recommendation when he's facing a left hander, and all of the stuff I wrote about Dozier applies here as well. John Danks sweepstakes!! If you like numbers and stuff, Plouffe has put up an .800+ OPS against southpaws for his career, and with 2 homers in his last 4 games, it looks like he's on one of those tears that leaves people wondering "the F was this guy priced near the minimum, again?"

Kyle Seager - FD 2900 DK 3500 DFSTR 6000
A Seattle stack is looking pretty interesting against the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona. Seager's pretty much been garbage this year, but I don't think that will stick during his age 28 season. And really, this is the ideal spot to grab him. Hernandez is barely a major league pitcher, and Minute Maid Park is a million times better place to hit that Safeco. I love this as a spot for Seager to get things going again.

 

Outfield

Brandon Moss - FD 3400 DK 4700 DFSTR 6000
Moss slugs about 70 points higher over the course of his career against right handed pitchers, and while Drew Hutchison has flashed decent peripherals at times, he's simply never gotten it together at the major league level. On a day where I'm likely to spend up away from outfield, Moss is a guy I'm still targeting heavily.

Justin Upton - FD 4000 DK 4400 DFSTR 6200
Matt Kemp - FD 3700 DK 4500 DFSTR 6400
Wil Myers - FD 3500 DK 4200 DFSTR 5900
It's yesterdays picks, redux! Neither went off against the Rockies on Saturday, but they're seriously tempting fate by trotting Matzek out right after the Padres got to size of De La Rosa. All of these guys are pricey, but they'll be big plays based on the upside alone, terrible park or not.

Jay Bruce - FD 3000 DK 4300 DFSTR 6100
Our projection system has been waiting for Bruce to turn it around all season. His walks are up, he's maintaining his power, and he's been the victim of some of the worst BABIP luck in the league - his .178 number is pitcher-esque. Now, Teheran isn't an ideal match-up for anyone, but the strike outs are down and the walks are up in the early part of this season. Never a good sign. What's more, Teheran is very prone to leaving balls up in the zone (just a 31% ground ball rate), meaning Bruce should get more than his usual opportunity to deposit balls over the fence. Huge upside play here, but he could obviously also K four times.

Torii Hunter - FD 2400 DK 4000 DFSTR 5600
Another repeat from last night's picks. Last night it was Noesi, but Hunter gets an even better spot against John Danks. He's been a hair better against lefties over the course of his career, and it was refreshing to see him come throw with a bomb on Saturday. A nice play for near minimum salaries once again.

Melky Cabrera - FD 2400 DK 4300 DFSTR 6400
Our projection system just begs us to take Melky Cabrera every single night at these prices, and it downright insists on it against Pelfrey. Grabbing a great line drive hitter at the top of the order against a guy who put up a staggering 6.55 xFIP (samll sample size) last season is a deal that's going to be awfully tough to pass up on.
 

Also considered: Matt Kemp, Yoenis Cespedes, Mookie Betts.

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