Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/30/15

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Pitcher

Chris Sale - FD 10000 DK 11300 DFSTR 9900
He's looking like a big favorite in Minnesota today. The White Sox hitters get to face Trevor May while Sale takes the mound against a team that's ranked in the bottom third of the league against lefty pitching. And I don't expect them to climb much over the course of the year. The Twins are a real rough offense and Sale should be able to cruise through parts of their lineup. His K's are down a bit on the early season, but I'm not overly concerned with that. The control is still there and the xFIP is in the acceptable range. Worth the money on this short slate.

Stephen Strasburg - FD 9200 DK 10400 DFSTR 8700
I know, I know. You are thinking, "Doug, you sexy devil, why are you headed down this hole again?" The answer is, I'm willing to do it but with less conviction than in previous writeups on Strasburg. Call it getting burned by the guy, or possibly feeling like the underlying numbers are misleading. I'm not sure. I think it's the former, but like I said, I'm hesitant. The K's are a bit down and he's been crushed by a .403 Babip so far. The Mets are in the bottom half of the league against righties, but they don't strike out a ton. I will use him in some tournaments to get away from Sale.

James Paxton - FD 6400 DK 6800 DFSTR 5800
If you want to shoot some upside on the cheaper this is your guy. He's right around a strikeout an inning on the season and his xFIP is three full runs lower than his 6.86 ERA. Paxton is cutting down on the walks which is a great sign and he's facing a Houston team that strikes out 24% of the time against lefty pitching this season. It's risky, but if you want to load up on bats Paxton fits a need with a higher ceiling.

 

Catcher

Victor Martinez - FD 3500 DK 4300 DFSTR 6900
He'll cost more of course and I am going to run into a problem of picking a ton of Tigers on this slate. I'll save the reasoning for later and some other dudes, but know that VMart hits lefties real well and has a crazy 9% K rate in that split. That means a ton of balls put into play. Last season he was one of the very best hitters in the game against lefty pitching with a crazy OPS over 1.100.

Evan Gattis - FD 2700 DK 3900
Not the best matchup in the world against James Paxton (I know I just recommended him) but catch is awfully thin on this slate so getting a cheap guy with a good split might just be what you need to do. Gattis has had success against lefties in his career with an OPS over .800 in that platoon. He strikes out a lot for sure, but you are getting a lot of upside for little cost. He hits in the middle of the order and has power. That's all you can ask for at his punt prices as the ceiling is fairly high.

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion - FD 4000 DK 4500 DFSTR 7300
Even with a lower .263 Babip in his split against lefties, E5 has stil managed an OPS close to .900 over the last season. He's a great hitter in this platoon and makes for a big power upside guy. Encarnacion is struggling to start this season but some of that has to do with his .177 Babip that surely can't continue. He's popping up on the infield a little too much, which isn't the best sign in the world. But the season is still so young. I'm still going with him in the matchup against T.J. House who is brutal against righty hitters.

Freddie Freeman - FD 3400 DK 4700 DFSTR 6600
Probably a little too expensive on DraftKings, but very affordable on FanDuel if you are spending on pitching. Will face Mike Leake who doesn't strike out many batters even though he does induce a fair amount of groundballs. Atlanta is actually putting some runs on the board which seems like a miracle. Freeman is a solid middle of the order bat.

Consider Carlos Santana

 

Second Base

Robinson Cano - FD 3500 DK 4600 DFSTR 6700
Don't need to tell you too much about Cano at this point. He's one of the best, most consistent hitters, in all of baseball. It is very tough for righties to strike him out which plays well against a guy like Scott Feldman who K's right around five batters per nine. That number is of course horrible and Cano has a high likelihood of having the ball put in play a bunch during this game and Houston plays up power to lefties. Love him as a safe play and the salary isn't crushing.

Ian Kinsler - FD 3700 DK 4300 DFSTR 6500
An all-righty Tiger team against the lefty Duffy is going to mean a bunch of Detroit writeups on this slate. That's fine. It's why baseball was made to stack. Kinsler is better against lefty pitching and I will have bits and pieces of him today. He makes a nice natural hedge if you play multiple sites as he's more expensive than Cano on FanDuel, but cheaper on DraftKings.

 

Shortstop

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2600 DK 4500 DFSTR 5100
Coming real cheap against David Buchanan who, if I haven't mentioned it already, is horrible. Peralta is fine enough against righty pitching putting up a 112 wRC+ over the last year or so. That gets the job done at his salary and position. That he hits in the middle of the order is also a big boost to his value compared to many of the other shortstops on any slate. I suspect he will be a big start on the early slate.

Mike Aviles - FD 2400 DK 3200 DFSTR 5400
Just make sure he's getting the start on this slate and then feel free to use him as a nice little punt play. The Indians will sometimes hit him at the top of the lineup against lefties and is he's in the two hole against Norris then he gets a big bump from the chance at the extra plate appearance.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson - FD 4200 DK 5700 DFSTR 6900
Danny Valencia - FD 2400 DK 3500 DFSTR 4900
I'm putting these two together only because they are on the same team, not because I think they are comparable talents or anything. Donaldson is one of the great lefty killers in all of baseball. Over the last year he's put up a .429 wOBA and 1K OPS in that split. And that's with about half his games coming in a pitcher's park. Today he gets T.J. House who's been rocked by righty pitching. This is a matchup made in heaven for a guy like Donaldson and I'll be working every which way to get him into lineups.

Valencia on the other hand offers a cheaper option who qualifies at second on DraftKings in a matchup on the better side of his platoon. If he's in the lineup against the lefty then he is a solid punt play considering his .835 OPS against lefties over the last year.

Consider Kyle Seager but I'm not straying too far from the Blue Jays guys

 

Outfield

J.D. Martinez - FD 3400 DK 4300 DFSTR 5900
Yoenis Cespedes - FD 3200 DK 4800 DFSTR 6300
Rajai Davis - FD 3200 DK 4200 DFSTR 7000
Like these guys if you are running Tigers' stacks and just as much in regular cash games. Both of these guys have had a lot of success against lefty pitching in their careers. Martinez put up over a 1K OPS in that platoon over the last season while Cespedes is well over .800 even with some Babip issues. Danny Duffy isn't a big strikeout guy and can issue his fair share of walks. Both Cespedes and Martinez are affordable in the outfield and let you spend up for pitching if you are going that way.

Jose Bautista - FD 5000 DK 5300 DFSTR 7400
Only down this far on the list because of price. He is close to breaking the bank but it makes sense considering what he can do against leftes (and really everyone). Bautista will be tough to fit if you playing the bigger arms. But if you go even a step down from those pitchers then he is nearly a must add in the lineup.

Jerry Sands - FD 2200 DK 3100 DFSTR 5000
He doesn't have the biggest major league sample size, but we take what we are given. In 116 plate appearances against lefties Sands has an .863 OPS and 143 wRC+. It doesn't look like the luckiest thing in the world either. Like him as a cheaper option on this slate and he's been getting into the lineup for the Tribe. (Update: Sands was sent down to the minors. A shame, he was playing well.)

Consider Seth Smith and Peter Bourjos if they are at the top of their respective lineups

 

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