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Early
Early slate pitching is a tough shout.
Jeff Samardzija - FD 9000 DK 9200 DFSTR 3100
Not a hero move for me to just choose the most expensive guy on the slate and call it a pick. And it doesn't help that the Shark hasn't been able to strike anyone out this year. Of all his numbers, that's the most concerning one. His fastball velocity is still there but he's completely gotten away from his two seam fastball. Don't know how much to read into that data, but it is a stark drop. He's added more of a cutter and that could be contributing to the dip in strikeouts. Not exactly sure. But I do think you can play him against the O's today as he's the most live arm on the slate by a mile. I'll take the strikeout upside (if he can still do it) and pray.
Consider Matt Garza
Late
Gerrit Cole - FD 8800 DK 8800 DFSTR 8300
He's been super solid this season striking out close to ten batters per nine with a walk rate about 2.5 per nine. The xFIP is right in the area of his 2.19 ERA and Cole is coming significantly cheaper than the other two big arms on the slate. The only issue with Cole is that he's facing a real solid offense in the Cubs. Chicago strikes out a lot which helps the K upside. But they have a good team OPS against righties. It's a tougher call, but I think the upside outweighs the downside for Cole.
Felix Hernandez - FD 11100 DK 10600 DFSTR 10700
This is big arm to spend up for if you can save enough with the bats (which I think you can). The Rangers are one of the worst offenses in the league against righty pitching on the season though some of that is definitely Babip related. Hernandez has been masterful this season, striking out over 10 batters per nine and walking almost no one. It's simply a cost question at this point.
Consider Carlos Martinez against the Phillies
Early
Derek Norris - FD 3000 DK 3600 DFSTR 5500
Dallas Keuchel has posted nice numbers against righties in a reverse split but I'm still willing to target Norris simply because of what the latter does to lefties. Norris has an .863 OPS and 148 wRC+ in this split over the last season and change. He's not the perfect price, but since all pitching is coming cheap on this slate, fitting his salary is no thing at all.
Victor Martinez - FD 3600 DK 4200 DFSTR 6800
The same can be said for VMart. I don't love the matchup against Hughes of course, but Martinez is such a solid hitter than when/where you can get him as catcher eligible you need to consider it.
Late
Yasmani Grandal - FD 2400 DK 3800 DFSTR 5300
He's had success against right-handed pitching over his career and is facing a weaker arm in Ryan Vogelsong. Grandal is one of a few cheaper options at catcher that are enticing on this slate. His .781 OPS and 124 wOBA against righty pitching over the last year plays really well for a guy behind the dish.
Mike Zunino - FD 2200 DK 3800 DFSTR 4000
Makes an interesting cheaper play on the late slate. Zunino hits at the bottom of the order. So we don't love that. But he's much better against lefty pitching for his career and is priced like a guy who rarely gets to face said lefty pitching. Really like buying on the extreme splits guys when possible because their price reflects their overall performance. He's also somewhat necessary if you are paying up for King Felix.
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Early
Jose Abreu - FD 4100 DK 5300 DFSTR 7500
Adam LaRoche - FD 2700 DK 4600 DFSTR 6300
I suppose there is no guarantee this game is played today, though it does seem like they will work hard to get the game in. If it is played I am all over both of these White Sox who qualify at first. Abreu crushed righties last season and that kind of success doesn't look fluky at all. His wOBA was right up near .400 and he's one of the premiere hitters in the game. Laroche meanwhile is in an excellent in spot against Jimenez who is a flyball pitcher. Laroche's OPS against righty pitching is hovering near .900 over the last year and Camden Yards plays as one of the best parks in all of baseball for lefty power.
If they don't play this game consider Adam Lind as a cheaper option.
Late
Matt Adams - FD 2700 DK 4300 DFSTR 5700
He's hitting cleanup for the Cardinals against Aaron Harang who is the very definition of average over his career. While Harang has posted some nice lines early in the season, he isn't anywhere close to the sub 2.00 ERA you are seeing on the back of the partial baseball card. The xFIP is more than two runs behind that. Adams on the other hand is coming very cheap considering the opportunity.
Mark Teixeira - FD 3700 DK 4600 DFSTR 6800
He's much better against lefty pitching for his career and ran bad with Babip over the course of last season which served to crush his split. Still liking him in on this slate as a slightly contrarian play.
Early
Brandon Phillips - FD 2300 DK 3700 DFSTR
I don't take any great pride in making this pick, but the early slate is awfully rough for second basemen. Phillips has been trash this season and he is well past his prime. I do think he is actually a little underpriced considering he's running bad in Hr/FB and the rest of his batted-ball profile looks somewhat promising (for him). This is the kind of spot you want to just spend the least and move on with your life. (Note: As I was writing this, he homered. Guess that makes me feel better. But not really. )
Ian Kinsler - FD 3900 DK 4200 DFSTR 6500
The case for Kinsler is that you have to spend so little at pitching on this slate that fitting his salary isn't any big thing. The case against him is Phil Hughes is a real tough pitcher at home as everyone just flies out.
Late
Rickie Weeks - FD 2200 DK 3600 DFSTR 5000
IF you are spending up for some of the pitching on the evening slate then a guy like Weeks makes things a bit easier. He's facing lefty Wandy Rodriguez in a solid hitters park in Arlington. Weeks has had solid success against lefties and over the last season or so has a .381 wOBA in that split. Love that number considering his prices and the lack of real talent at second base on this slate (Every slate). (Note: Ha, as I was writing, Weeks went yard. Getting good at this piece. Next paragraph I'll write about how I think a million bucks will be great to have.)
Chase Utley - FD 2500 DK 3700 DFSTR 6200
He's running some kind of terrible in Babip on the early season with the number sitting at .096. That's about as low as you'll see that stat. Don't love the matchup against Martinez because of the latter's ability to K hitters, but this is very much a discount for Utley.
Early
Danny Santana - FD 2600 DK 3800 DFSTR 5000
Only one option I'm even considering on this slate and it's Santana. He's hitting leadoff against a pitcher in Shane Greene who is only striking out four batters per nine innings in his first four starts. Now Santana is far from a lock. For starters, he hasn't drawn a walk yet this year and is striking out 30% of the time. For the uninitiated, those numbers are horrible. But Greene is the kind of pitcher to turn it around against. The K potential is greatly decreased in this one.
Late
Jimmy Rollins - FD 2700 DK 3800 DFSTR 5900
The Dodgers' offense has been firing on all cylinders this season and it doesn't look to be totally luckbox stuff. Unfortunately Rollins hasn't really been part of the good times as he's stunk. But a lot of that is his .214 Babip. The K's are up a bit, but so are the walks. There's a some stuff to like about him going forward and considering his spot in the lineup I think we are buying him at a slight discount right now thanks to the run bad.
Erick Aybar - FD 2200 DK 3600 DFSTR 5100
Coming at the minimums. I've written about the guy a decent amount already this season, but a shortstop who hits around the middle of the order and is coming at punt prices will have some value in my book. The floor is a bit higher because of the contact rate, but there's a hard ceiling because he has no power.
Early
Aramis Ramirez - FD 2400 DK 3700 DFSTR 6200
He's slowly starting to come out of the abyss that was the beginning of his season. Still hitting in the lower third of the lineup thanks to a poor first month, but starting to get the power stroke back. He'll face a groundball pitcher in Mike Leake on the wrong side of the former's split, but we are hamstrung by choices on this slate. I'll take the power upside and move on here.
Late
The hot corner on the late slate has you choosing between good hitters in tough matchups or weak hitters in slightly better situations. But remember, the latter stink.
Josh Harrison - FD 2800 DK 4300 DFSTR 6400
This is kind of the lesser of all evils kind of thing. He's been terrible to start the season and I don't love the matchup against Kyle Hendricks who is pitching like a crazy control freak. Buying on Harrison mostly because of the leadoff position in the order and that he has been running a little bad to start the season. Again, third is a minefield on this evening slate. It is tough to make a strong case for anyone. Getting a leadoff hitter at a slight discount in a suboptimal matchup is fine considering the other options.
Early
Ryan Braun - FD 3000 DK 4500 DFSTR 6600
He's a far cry from his old, juicing self. But Braun is also getting a little unlucky in this early season. His Hr/FB rate is sitting at a crazy low 5%, down from a career 18%. Is some of that the drugs man? Maybe. But it also means some of those long outs should start scraping over the wall. Not totally gambler's fallacy in that statement as it doesn't stand to reason he will run that low over the course of the season. Now's a good time to buy.
Melky Cabrera - FD 2300 DK 4500 DFSTR 6800
Because I pick him everyday. And at his FD price it makes sense every day.
Oswaldo Arcia - FD 2600 DK 4300 DFSTR 5200
Torii Hunter - FD 2500 DK 4200 DFSTR 5400
Both of these guys are coming at nice prices against Greene who doesn't seem like he could strike a parking cone out this year (a tall parking cone with a big strike zone). Arcia is especially adept at hitting righty pitching and I like his power upside.
Late
Nelson Cruz - FD 4900 DK 5500 DFSTR 6100
He's really expensive so take that into mind. But with some other looser pricing in the other positions, fitting Cruz might be something you can do. Cruz has slaughtered lefty pitching over the last season with an OPS close to 1.000 and a .416 wOBA. The Ballpark in Arlington plays up power to righties and Wandy Rodriguez is a journeyman pitcher who could be in trouble here.
Mark Trumbo - FD 3200 DK 4200 DFSTR 5500
Ender Inciarte - FD 2700 DK 3500 DFSTR 3100
David Peralta - FD 2300 DK 3900 DFSTR 5400
This group is in a good spot against Jordan Lyles. While Lyles is an extreme groundball pitcher, each of these guys is coming at a reduced rate in a great hitter's park. It isn't Coors of course, but man it's close. Chase Field boosts power to all directions. Trumbo is better against lefty pitching, but I'll take him on the cheap. The other two guys are much better in this split. Check the starting lineup before lineups lock because Arizona likes to jack around their dudes. But these guys make solid value plays.
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View Comments
I appreciate your picks and analysis. I have one question. Is it ever advisable to have a lot of salary left over? For example, If I go with the following line-up for the FanDuel late slate of games, I end up with $1700 left to spend:
P Hernandez 11100; C Grandal 2400; 1B Adams 2700; 2B Weeks 2200; 3B Harrison 2800; SS Aybar 2200; OF Cruz 4900; OF Inciarte 2700; OF D. Peralta 2300
It seems like 1700 is a lot of salary to leave unused, but then again, if these are the best picks does it matter? What would you do in a case like this?
Thanks.