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James Shields - FD 8100 DK 9600 DFSTR 3100 SpTradeX A
I’d guess we’re likely to see David Price get a lot of run tonight, but Shields is our pick, and it’s really not close. He’ll be twirling in one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly parks against one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly lineups. Just kidding. Sort of. The Astros pack some home run punch, but Petco will keep that in check. They’ll also work the count, but Shields isn’t the type to walk the ballpark. Most importantly, they strike out more than any team in the league, which could yield DFS gold for Shields tonight.
John Lackey - FD 7400 DK 8000 DFSTR 3100 SpTradeX A
Once upon a time the guy going against Cole Hamels was likely to be avoided due to the win difficulty. But then the Phillies offense happened. The Phils don’t strike out a ton, but the other things they don’t do a ton include getting on base and scoring runs. In fact, they’re worst in the league in both categories entering Sunday’s games. Lackey got slapped around a bit last time out, but this lineup ain’t the Nats. Plus, the ballpark favors pitchers and the price is on the cheap side. Not a bad pick at all if you wanna save on pitching.
Dillon Gee - FD 6200 DK 6400 DFSTR 3100 SpTradeX A
Only five teams strike out more than the Marlins, and though the park is about league average overall, it suppresses homers with the best of them. To be clear, this is not a safe play. But if you’re looking for some differentiation with upside for your GPPs, Gee might be your guy.
Victor Martinez - FD 3400 DK 4800 DFSTR 6900 SpTradeX B
Seems like V-Mart might be playing through some pain following offseason knee injury, but the point is he’s playing, and at this price, he’s a bargain. Sure, he’s off to a slow start, but the guy simply mashes left-handed pitching (1.123 OPS vs. LHP since 2014), and Tommy Millone has been mashed by far lesser hitters than this. And with all those big right-handed bats in the Detroit lineup, Martinez should be in prime position for run production hitting cleanup.
Brian McCann - FD 2800 DK 3900 DFSTR 6200
If spending on catcher isn’t something you’re comfortable with, there’s plenty of choices if you wanna go a little cheaper, starting with McCann. He should be back in the lineup after getting a day of rest on Sunday, and he’ll be stepping into a favorable matchup against Tampa’s Austin Karns, who has strikeout stuff but can’t be bothered to throw it in the vicinity of the strike zone. Of course, McCann’s numbers haven’t been great as a Yankee. Some of that’s due to the shift he’s stuck facing, but there’s no defensive alignment that can account for the short porch in right at Yankee Stadium and this looks like a good chance for Mac to take advantage of it.
Wilson Ramos - FD 2600 DK 3700 DFSTR 5700
We’d like him hitting a little higher in the order, but Ramos rocks a steady .820 OPS since 2014 against left-handed pitching, and Eric Stults remains the below-average MLB pitcher he’s always been. Look for the Nats to put up some runs in this one, and Ramos should every opportunity to be a part of it.
Let’s start spending. Going relatively cheap at pitcher today is gonna leave room for some big bats, and it’s a good day to throw down some money on offense.
Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4500 DK 5700 DFSTR 8000 SpTradeX B
Pretty simple stuff here. Goldschmidt is one of the league's best hitters playing in a hitter-friendly park against a pitcher with a cool 6.00 xFIP on the season. Yeah, yeah, sample size, but still. Matzek isn’t very good by pretty much any measure, and Goldschmidt sports a 1.022 career OPS against lefties. Deploy him at will.
Miguel Cabrera - FD 4100 DK 5100 DFSTR 7700 SpTradeX B
Pretty similar situation to that of Goldschmidt, except the D-backs have the park advantage. Of course, you have to pay for that, so if you need to save a couple hundred but still want the high floor/high ceiling, Miggy’s a good pick. As we mentioned with V-Mart, the Tigers are loaded with right-handed bats and could be in for a big day against a sub-standard southpaw. And though Cabrera is potent on either side of the R/L split, he’s especially destructive against lefties (career .988 OPS, .414 wOBA).
Chris Davis - FD 3300 DK 4700 DFSTR 6000 SpTradeX C
Davis is heating up lately, but recent trends aren’t as important as his established track record for our purposes here. Davis strikes out a ton; that’s part of the package. But his lifetime slugging percentage against righties is .510, and Camden Yards is second to only Coors Field and Yankee Stadium in terms of home run park factors for left-handed hitters. Also, there’s Hector Noesi, he of the 4.53 career xFIP. There are certainly safer plays than Davis, but his ceiling is as high as anybody’s.
Ryan Zimmerman - FD 3000 DK 4500 DFSTR 6300
Personally, I can’t see a scenario in which I wouldn’t play one of the three above, but Zimmerman is coming at a value as the Nats could be scoring in bunches against what’s left of Eric Stults tonight. His slow start is BABIP driven, and he’ll be hitting in the middle of the order, greatly increasing the chances he’ll be involved in whatever carnage is wrought upon the Braves.
Ian Kinsler - FD 3400 DK 4300 DFSTR 6400 SpTradeX C
I’m betting we’ll see more than a few Tigers stacks tonight. Kinsler’s another righty who can get you points in a variety of ways. He makes his home in the No. 2 hole, right in front of Miggy and V-Mart, he’s got extra-base pop, and still has enough speed to swipe a bag here and there. What I really like here is the career .374 OBP against lefties, because if he gets on, I like his chances to score.
Aaron Hill - FD 2200 DK 3800 DFSTR 5300
Keep an eye on the lineups with this one. Josh Lamb is on the DL, but the recent promotion of Yasmany Tomas means Hill still doesn’t have a clear shot at playing time. If he’s in the game, he stands a good shot at returning value coming at minimum prices. He may not be the player he once was, but if you can get a guy with his run-producing pedigree at this price with a good matchup in hitters park, you’ve at least gotta think about it.
Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4300 DK 5200 DFSTR 8500 SpTradeX B
For Tulo, this counts as a depressed price. And on a night when you’re not breaking the bank on a pitcher, it makes an awful lot of sense to pay it. It’s not Coors Field, but Arizona is a very nice place to hit. And while Chase Anderson looks like a fine young pitcher at this early stage in his career, he’s not enough to scare me off one of the game’s best hitters.
Ian Desmond - FD 3400 DK 4500 DFSTR 5900 SpTradeX D
We’ve got three clear tiers of picks at SS tonight, and Desmond is your choice if you want to split the difference. Going against Stults, he’s got the power/speed combo that can nearly match Tulo’s upside, if not his safety. At the price, that’s not a bad deal – especially since you won’t be getting taxed for the defensive gaffes he’s quickly becoming known for.
Asdrubal Cabrera - FD 2200 DK 3900 DFSTR 5300
This recommendation is mostly the product of the fact that a guy who hits No. 3 in the order can be had for minimum prices – that’s just something we don’t see often in DFS. Cabrera isn’t going to put up huge numbers, but it wouldn’t take much for him to return value, and he’ll have a very nice chance to do it, going against Adam Warren’s less-than-pedestrian 5.26 xFIP.
Josh Harrison - FD 2800 DK 4300 DFSTR 6500 SpTradeX D
This price has come down hard on some of the slumping Pirates hitters, and those that have jumped on the bargain with Harrison have enjoyed some pretty solid outings over the last few days. Our projection system is likewise sticking with him against Jason Hammel. Hammel probably isn’t as bad as his current 5.19 ERA, but he also isn’t the kind of pitcher you need to hide from when a value like this presents itself.
Nick Castellanos - FD 2500 DK 3700 DFSTR 4900 SpTradeX D
Listen, right now Castellanos is just a dude. But he’s coming super cheap and on the safer side of the R/L split and is part of an offense that our projection system thinks is gonna go bananas tonight. We’d like him a whole lot better if he could escape the No. 8 hole, but for these prices, you could still be getting a a good deal tonight.
Conor Gillaspie - FD 2200 DK 3600 DFSTR 3100 SpTradeX D
Quintessential low-risk, low-reward guy. Gillaspie’s value is derived partly from the lefty-friendly confines of Camden Yards, partly from the minimum price level, and partly from the possibility that Ubaldo Jimenez walks seven guys less than four innings.
Andrew McCutchen - FD 3800 DK 5200 DFSTR 8200 SpTradeX B
Another case of the price getting too low on a slumping Pirates hitter. McCutchen is one of the best players in baseball and he’s coming in at mid-tier prices. His sub-.200 batting average is the product of a BABIP that’s trending at about .150 points below his career averages. It’s going to be on the rise soon, and so is his price. Travis Wood is a non-threatening matchup, and the floor/ceiling here far exceeds the price.
Ryan Braun - FD 3100 DK 4700 DFSTR 6500
Braun’s off to an uninspiring start to 2015, and his price has fallen quickly as a result. But matched up against Jason Marquis (4.57 career xFIP) in Cincinnati, one of the best home run parks in the league for righties, I think I’m taking my chances.
Jayson Werth - FD 2800 DK 4300 DFSTR 6900 SpTradeX C
Werth rakes against lefties to a startling degree – career OPS .935 – and he should have a chance to add to those numbers against Eric Stults. He’s hitting third in the order, making him a prime candidate to drive in some runs and to be driven in. The price is a product of his slow start since returning from injury and doesn't reflect what he's capable of.
Mark Trumbo - FD 2700 DK 4300 DFSTR 5500
Hey, I’m not trying to tell you what to do. Just know that our projection system is really excited about Mark Trumbo against Tyler Matzek. Like, really excited. Trumbo owns a .512 career slugging and .822 OPS against lefties, and as mentioned previously, Chase Field breeds big offensive numbers. Trumbo’s power potential hasn’t presented itself yet this season, but it's there, and at these prices the upside is hard to match.
Consider: Alejandro De Aza and Gerardo Parra for the savings.
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View Comments
Curious as to what the projection system sees in Hamels tonight. FD & DK projections both have him scoring more than Lackey.