Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/25/15 - Early Slate

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Pitcher

Stephen Strasburg - FD 9600 DK 10000 DFSTR 8900
It's Strasburg left, right and center for me today and it really isn't close. People love to hate the guy and he's been through some stretches where he's probably burned you at some point or another. But this guy has a 2.69 xFIP over the last season-plus while striking out more than a batter an inning. He's facing a Marlin team that strikes out close to the most in the league against righties and the ballpark is made to keep run scoring down. I'm hesitant to recommend really anyone else on this slate considering Stras's upside and relative affordability. I know his numbers are down a bit this season, but some of that is Babip and Strand rate that should normalize.

CC Sabathia - FD 7600 DK 8400 DFSTR 6800
He's the one other guy I would consider here and he makes for an interesting play. His peripherals remain awesome, striking out almost a batter and inning and walking less than two per nine. The Mets are a nice story but they don't exactly mash. CC is very affordable and the only downside for him really is that he's matched against Matt Harvey meaning getting the win will be tough.

Catcher

Salvador Perez - FD 3000 DK 4000 DFSTR 5600
He's been horrendous against lefty pitching over the last season or so, but some of that is thanks to a very low Babip. He's very tough for lefties to strike out and has a solid contact rate. John Danks isn't a strikeout machine and U.S. Cellular Field boosts power in all directions. Perez is coming at a nice price.

Victor Martinez - FD 3400 DK 4200 DFSTR 6900
Man has his price come down of late which could be, in part, due to some lingering knee issues. But's crazy to think about this guy coming below $3500 on FanDuel even if he's an aging version of the once solid slugger. Even at say 80% this is a solid play considering his contact rate and really low K%.

Consider Jason Castro and Evan Gattis as high risk/high reward plays.

First Base

First base is tough on this slate as there are a ton of solid options. I might recomment mixing and matching here as there are a bunch of guys coming affordable in solid matchups.
Jose Abreu - FD 4200 DK 5600 DFSTR 7500
Edinson Volquez isn't a bad pitcher, but he's nowhere near the dude his sub 2.00 ERA this season would suggest. Abreu has hammered righties in his brief major league tenure with a wOBA near .400 and an OPS over .900 in that split. Because pitching won't really cost you today, getting Abreu into lineups shouldn't be tough.

Adam Laroche - FD 2800 DK 3900 DFSTR 6100
I don't think he will continue striking out at a 40% clip. I wouldn't bet my life on it, but it just seems unsustainable (in a good way). Laroche has had a lot of success against righties over the last season, putting up an OPS close to .900 with a 146 wRC+. Expect to see to see the walks climb and the strikeouts decrease as the season wears on. Great park against an average pitcher in Volquez.

Brandon Moss - FD 3100 DK 4700 DFSTR 5700
He's hitting fifth for the Indians and behind a couple of real good on base guys. That's a great spot in terms of RBI expectation with a pitcher like Alfredo Simon on the mound who really doesn't possess strikeout stuff. Moss is above average against righty pitching and should be in a spot to knock some runs in.

 

Second Base

Jason Kipnis - FD 2800 DK 4600 DFSTR 5900
What has happened to this guy? It's been over a season of below average hitting and 2015 has been just dreadful to start. It's left his price coming down into the punt range. I am tempted to buy heavily over the short term, but there is some downside considering his OPS has fallen off a cliff. But he still has some power and speed upside. Interesting spot here but I like the matchup against Simon.

Consider Omar Infante as a cheap option against the lefty Danks. And Ian Kinsler won't break the bank on you.

 

Shortstop

Oof, it is a rough one here. I'm going to bullet list some possible plays, but I'm not spending much at this position.

Marcus Semien - FD 2700 DK 3800 DFSTR 5300
He hit leadoff last night, but that may have been simply a right/lefty thing. If he's in the same spot today I like his expectation based on potential plate appearances.

Junh Ho Kang - Righty hitting a lefty in a good park.

Indians shortstops - Mike Aviles or Jose Ramirez come cheap in a matchup against a bad pitcher.

Third Base

Kris Bryant - FD 3500 DK 4700 DFSTR 3000
Hasn't had one bit of trouble adjusting to major league pitching and is basically killing it since being called up. Bryant is a singular talent and we will be writing about him for quite some time. Even with the small sample size, I'm liking him today as he's been hitting cleanup for the Cubs and making the most of it. Won't cost you a ton and though he's better against lefty pitching, I'm not sweating the splits too hard this early.

Conor Gillaspie - FD 2200 DK 3000 DFSTR 4900
Brett Lawrie - FD 2300 DK 3700 DFSTR 4900
A couple of cheaper guys our system likes today. Both are more tournament plays because they aren't big time hitters. But the prices are super cheap and they aren't exactly dogs. They each are slightly above league average against righties over the last season and when you are getting players at the minimums who hit in a split like that is where you snag a little value on the margins.

 

Outfield

Jorge Soler - FD 3400 DK 4900 DFSTR 6700
It's a small sample size but sometimes that's all we have to work with. And in his major league time Jorge Soler has really hit righty pitching well. His OPS is well over .900 in that split and it isn't too Babip driven. Soler strikes out a little too much, but Anthony DeSclafani isn't a big K guy and the sub-1.00 ERA is an aberration. His xFIP is three runs higher on this short season. I like the idea of stacking some Cubs on this slate.

Melky Cabrera - FD 2400 DK 4300 DFSTR 6600
Adam Eaton - FD 2200 DK 3900 DFSTR 5700
I basically recommend these guys every single day so why would this random Saturday in April be any different? I am kidding, sort of. I like playing these guys in cash games because while their ceilings are low, their basements are high. Both are contact guys hitting at the top of the lineup and above average against righty pitching. If you look at their game logs they are consistent mostly because they find ways to get on base and score a run here or there. Again, the power isn't their for the big upside so they don't rate out as tournament plays. But from a safe cash game perspective

 

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