Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/22/15

Editor's Note: Say hello to new DFSR contributor Brent Holloway. No like really, say hello. Don't be rude. We are excited to have him on board writing up baseball this season. You can follow him @thebholloway

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Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw - FD 12000 DK 12500 DFSTR 3100 SpTradeX A
Madison Bumgarner - FD 9900 DK 9800 DFSTR 3100 SpTradeX A
Expecting ace-on-ace crime in the San Fran tonight. Kershaw’s the clear play of the night on a pure points basis, as he’s a better bet for big K numbers. But Bumgarner rates higher on value, because Kershaw’s price is nearing prohibitive levels. Tough call, but based on some of the bad matchups for high-dollar hitters, I’m leaning toward Kershaw and seeing what I can scrape together to fill out the lineup. But obviously the biggest problem here is that they face each other, with lowers the win expectation for each. This is a very tough slate all around and will require quite a bit of finagling no matter what direction you choose.

Cole Hamels - FD 9800 DK 9200 DFSTR 3100 SpTradeX A
Or you could skip it and take your chances here. Hamels has struggled with his command through three starts, but don’t be overly influenced by that. He’s still putting up a K per inning and Marlins will be the lightest-hitting bunch he’s faced so far. Very much wish this game was in Miami, and he'll have to clear through Giancarlo who dines on the inner organs of lefties, but this could be a K upside day for Hamels.

Dillon Gee - FD 6600 DK 6500 DFSTR 3100 SpTradeX A
This is mostly if you want to go contrarian and try to load up on expensive bats. This is only a tournament play, but the Braves offense is so light hitting and Citi Field depresses power (even with the walls moved in some) that Gee could make for an interesting play if he can throw enough innings.

Catcher

Evan Gattis - FD 2800 DK 3600 DFSTR 5300 SpTradeX D
Despite all the whiffs and the SafeCo factor, the projection system is pretty geeked about the Astros facing J.A. Happ. Gattis is mostly a GPP guy for me right now, but tonight looks like a good night to play him in those formats – and maybe others. His strikeouts are the subject of much hand-wringing, but he’s also had some really bad luck when he makes contact (.185 BABIP).

Dioner Navarro - FD 2400 DK 3700 DFSTR 3100
Unless you’re buying into the Ubaldo renaissance, Navarro makes a good play in your cash games tonight. His K-rate so far is even better than his already strong career averages, and his lower OPS is in part the product of weak BABIP. Low ceiling, but a respectable floor at this price especially considering the ballpark.

 

First Base

Chris Davis - FD 3600 DK 4700 DFSTR 6000 SpTradeX C
Davis gets the rare elite points/elite value combo projection, which makes sense. He’ll be on the positive side of the split, and hitting in a big fly paradise against an unproven young arm in Aaron Sanchez who’s been shelled in his first two starts. Davis hasn’t been outstanding so far this season, with the K's a real concern, but the upside for a massive night is there.

Joe Mauer - FD 2900 DK 4000 DFSTR 5800 SpTradeX D
On a night with so many studs taking the mound, those hitters with favorable matchups are even more valuable than usual. That’s what we’ve got here, as our projection system sees good things happening for the Twins against Jeremy Guthrie. Mauer’s not a GPP play, but he’s a solid low-cost guy for those cash games where you’re spending big on pitching as his walk rate is acceptable against righties.

Hate the ballpark but you can consider David Ortiz against Karns. Also, Edwin Encarnacion makes a more expensive upside play against Ubaldo.

 

 

Second Base

Tough night at the keystone. Might be a good spot to get out as cheaply as possible.

Neil Walker - FD 3200 DK 4100 DFSTR 6100 SpTradeX C
Walker’s off to a tepid start, like most of his teammates, but he’s slowly rounding into the player his track record tells us he is. Jason Hammel’s penchant over the last couple of years for giving up the long ball may be enough to entice you here. Walker is still hitting near the top of the order and sandwiched in between Harrison and McCutch has its advantages.

CallaAlberto Callaspo - FD 2200 DK 2500 DFSTR 3100 spo
As long as the Braves stink and insist on (or are forced to) hitting guys like Callaspo in the two hole then he will have some value because of the number of plate appearances he stands to see. That's about the only reason to play him, but on a rough night where you'll need to save for some arms you are going to be playing losers like this.

Other bargain bin plays to consider Rougned Odor if he can hit near the top of the order. And Omar Infante because second base stinks.

 

Shortstop

Shortstop might be even worse than 2B tonight.

Everth Cabrera - FD 2600 DK 3200 DFSTR 3100 SpTradeX DEverth Cabrera
Could be a great play, but his value is tied strongly to his place in the batting order. At the top of the lineup, he’s a steal at these prices in what could be a high-scoring game for the O’s. If he’s in the bottom third of the order, tread lightly.

Asdrubal Cabrera - FD 2500 DK 3700 DFSTR 5200
Asdrubal is off to a rough start and took a seat last night. If he’s back in his customary slot as the No. 3 hitter, he’s a fine play for the price. He's been right around league average over the last season plus against righty bats with a 99 wRC+. That's nothing to go crazy for obviously, but the price what you're looking at here.

Consider Danny Santana The system likes him against Guthrie, but the price is a little high for me, considering his somewhat limited upside.

Third Base

Josh Harrison - FD 3000 DK 3900 DFSTR 6200 SpTradeX D
After a breakout year in 2014, Harrison’s had some bad BABIP luck so far. Our system isn’t fully trusting of the numbers Hammel has put up in a Cubs uni, and Harrison’s pretty much split-neutral, so don’t fear the righty v. righty matchup. Harrison went yard last night, and though we don't really buy into recent performance as an indicator of future value it is at least nice to know he's getting the bat on the ball.

Yangervis Solarte - FD 2700 DK 3700 DFSTR 6800
The Padres really seem to want to give the 3B gig to Will Middlebrooks, and lack of consistent playing time is the only thing holding down Solarte’s price right now. I suspect he'll be in the lineup against the righty Kendrick tonight and hopefully hitting in the two hole. If he’s in San Diego’s lineup, put him in yours.

Consider Pablo Sandoval

 

Outfield

George Springer - FD 3500 DK 4300 DFSTR 6600 SpTradeX C
Chris Carter - FD 2400 DK 3700 SpTradeX C
Remember what we said about the system teeing off on Happ? It’s really liking all those right-handed Astros sluggers tonight. Carter’s more of a pure GPP, boom-or-bust guy until he gets on a heater, and at near-minimum prices, that’s not a bad deal. Springer? Feel free to roll him out there in any format. Despite the lackluster overall numbers this year, as of this writing, it’s been nearly a week since Springer had a zero-point game in FanDuel scoring. Combine that with the upside you get from his power and stolen base potential, and you’ve got a strong play for a mid-priced guy.

Travis Snider - FD 2900 DK 3900 DFSTR 6200
Snider hasn’t lived up to the hype he had nearly a decade ago, but he was a solid producer for the Pirates last year and has continued to hit in Baltimore. Not a big power guy, but Rogers Centre boosts power numbers pretty significantly.

Oswaldo Arcia - FD 3000 DK 4200 DFSTR 5300
Not a bad cheaper option all things considered. But this is the kind of day we are talking about. Arcia was pretty good against righties last season with a 135 wRC+ and .850 OPS in that split. The K rate is a little high but we don't worry too much about that with a guy like Guthrie on the mound.

Jay Bruce - FD 3200 DK 4400 DFSTR 6300 SpTradeX C
Our system doesn't totally trust the early performance of Jimmy Nelson. Bruce is strictly a GPP play because of the potential for multiple K's, but the ballpark lends itself really well to power all around.
Will Venable
If he gets the start, that speed/gap power could yield another nice night in Coors.

Consider Michael Cuddyer and Torii Hunter

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