The playoffs are finally here and they are shaping up to be damn entertaining. Instead of publishing daily picks (as we suspect very little changes in these first round matchups) we are putting up a playoff preview for the first round. These picks are from our system and barring some injury or a major lineup shake-up, we suspect many of the value plays will stay put. We'll be updating this as the first round moves along, especially if something glaring comes to light. We'll also update when Sunday's games are posted on the major sites. Now let's enjoy some playoff NBA!
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[table id=147 /]
It what may prove to be the most boring of all the first round series, Washington and Toronto match up to see who can erase the stink of an ugly second half. One of these teams will advance, thereby washing away some of what troubled them over the last couple of months. But that will really only be by default.
Toronto’s rotations are kind of a mystery at this point and the first game of the series will likely dictate some of their value going forward. That is especially true at power forward where minutes have been split among a bunch of different guys.
On the Washington side of things, Beal, Wall and Gortat appear locked into their minutes though there are some question marks at small forward and power forward. Pierce and Nene sat a bunch or played reduced minutes down the stretch.
Kyle Lowry
He was back in time from inury to start four games and it didn’t take him long to top out in his minutes by the last game of the season. He’s seen his price travel all over the map this season essentially dictated by if Derozan was in the lineup. The good news down the stretch was that he was getting his shot up. The bad news is said shots weren’t going in. But if the minutes and volume are going to be there he has a real shot to exceed value in these first couple of games.
John Wall
This series will be dictated quite a bit by the point guard play. There’s reason to suspect Wall plays huge minutes in this series as there is almost no reason to hold him back. He’s expensive, but even at a high salary the points/$ coming back on him is acceptable. Has the ability to put up monsters but the shot volume has to be there. If he’s seeing 15+ shots and working to limit the turnovers then paying for him makes sense.
Bradley Beal
This one is all about the minutes. Randy Whitman has little concern for running Beal into the ground when the games are meaningless. Imagine what happens when the situations are actually high leverage. Could play the whole game. Price climbed a little on some later season shooting, but still a solid shooting guard option.
Terrence Ross
Few players do less fantasy-wise with more minutes than Ross. He is a value play strictly because in the playoffs it is awfully tough to find those punt plays. If he is going to play more than thirty minutes at near minimum prices then he become a nice roster filler with hints of upside if he can get the three to drop.
Nene Hilario
If he’s in the starting lineup and expected to play close to thirty minutes then he is the same value zone as Ross. The price came down later in the year as his production and health were all over the place. Toronto isn’t big on the interior and whoever is getting run for the Wizards at the four is in a great spot.
Paul Pierce
The Wizards have really managed his minutes and he’s been playing basically 25 or less throughout the regular season. If they bump that even to like, 28 then I love the value.
[table id=149 /]
Derrick Rose was able to return with just enough time before the playoffs started to work his way way slightly back into game shape. But the Bulls do come limping into this series a little banged up with Rose not fully healthy and Noah nursing some injuries. These games will have some of the lowest over/ unders you will see in all of the playoffs as neither team plays particularly quickly and both are stingy on defense. While they may be interesting to watch as an older and experienced Bulls' squad faces a group of young and relatively untested Bucks. But from a fantasy perspective, there isn't a whole lot to love about what's going down in this series.
The one thing you can probably set your watch to is the amount of minutes Thibs will run his starters. This philosophy helps in prognosticating some of the Chicago value as the run will be there for the starters. The same cannot be said of Jason Kidd and we will need to see what kind of rotations he uses once the rubber hits the road. The Bucks are a team you could see swing wildly in value if Kidd all of a sudden commits to playing the starters enormous minutes. But I don't totally trust it.
Pau Gasol
From a bigger money standpoint, he's really the only guy I can get behind and even then it's close. Right now we have him projected for about 35 minutes. That could be low and if he pushes up to 40 then he really could top out on the upside. But power forward/ center is the one place the Bulls have some depth so I'm not totally certain we see it play out like that. He will have an offensive advantage inside, but he's not blowing it out of the box in terms of points per dollar.
Ersan Ilysaova
If he gets thirty or so minutes of run starting at the four then Ersan becomes one of the best values on the slate. Coming pretty cheap all things considered (about as cheap as any starter with offensive "skills") and helps to fit some of the higher-priced guys. There is definitely some other value at power forward coming in this round so I don't consider him a must play, but if you are playing some GPPs on these playoff slates then Ersan deserves a look.
Michael Carter-Williams
Falls into much the same category as Ersan. I don't totally trust the minutes will be there, but I also don't expect Kidd to run like a 10 man rotation in the playoffs (though I wouldn't bet my life on that). MCW has been rounding into form, his old Philly-like fantasy upside surfacing now and then down the stretch. Can't shoot at all, but does little (or lotta) bits of everything else. Coming solidly in that middle tier and if he's just the man at PG then he is very cheap for the upside.
If you listen to the BS Report at all, or really read anything from Simmons and ESPN then you are already more than well-versed on the Boston Celtics. More than you would ever need to be. But hey, it’s a nice story, a Celtics team that jettisoned most of its “talent” only to get better and better as the season wore on. And now they are in the playoffs about to get their doors blown off by the Cavs.
Lebron and company seem to be firing on all cylinders right now, having worked and molded their team into just the kind of the pieces they need to make a championship run. This series, I think, will be over rather quickly barring some kind of miracle or injury or both. Though Brad Stevens is an excellent coach, the talent discrepancies are just too stark. In terms of fantasy value from a daily perspective there are a couple of guys we can look at below for the first few games. But in general, I doubt we are talking about this series for too long.
Kyrie Irving
The Celtics haven’t been great at defending opposing point guards this season as they’ve allowed above average production to that position all season long. Part of this is because opposing guards are able to penetrate and get to the hoop because the Celtics lack much in the way of interior defense. Irving is one of the best in the league at this and our system likes his points per dollar in this first round.
Note: I think it’s a little tough to pay up for Lebron in this first slate of games.
Marcus Smart
If Brad Stevens is going to trust him to run some of the offense in this playoff series then this as about as close as you will get to a punt play in the early round of the playoffs. He is coming very cheap considering what his role might be in this series. Can’t really score but chips in around the other areas. Not safe by any means, but I think they will call on his defense in this series.
Timofey Mozgov
If the Cavs decide to go big against a smaller Boston frontcourt then Timofey could be in store for some big lines. His size could give the Celts trouble on the interior, but it’s just his minutes that are in question.
[table id=153 /]
Analysis:
The Hawks were dealt a blow at the end of the season Paul Millsap suffered a shoulder injury. He returned for the last game of the season, but there are lingering concerns that he isn’t fully healed. It will be interesting to see how the Hawks use him in the playoffs. The Hawks are a tough fantasy team to pin down for a couple of reasons. One: they employ such a team-oriented approach that no player stands out in terms of overall fantasy production. Additionally, they rested so many guys over the stretch that it is a bit tough to pin down exactly how their rotations will work. I suspect the starters log heavy minutes with Schroder and some of the bigs coming off the bench, but that remains to be seen. That is all to say that they should have an easier time with Brooklyn who has almost no talent depth and struggles defensively.
On the Brooklyn side, Brook Lopez really turned it on near the end of the season as Lionel Hollins ditched the timeshare between he and Plumlee and had Brook out there for insanely long stretches. It turned Bro-Lo into one of the elite offensive center options over the last couple of weeks. Deron Williams also showed flashes, but after that the Nets are a sinkhole of fantasy production.
Jeff Teague
There is a bunch of point guard value in this opening round which is the only thing tempering me on Teague. Otherwise, expect him to see many more minutes than what was happening down the stretch as the Hawks prepared for a playoff run.
Al Horford
I am mostly counting on here is that his minutes bump to about 33 which would put him in a fantastic spot against Bro-Lo. Lopez is an offense-first center and the Nets have allowed about 10% more scoring than league average to opposing centers this season. Horford’s minutes have been managed this season, but expect him to see a bump in this series.
Note: I don’t see myself playing any of the Nets on this slate except as a contrarian play in a big tournament.
No one stands out here, but keep an eye on how the Hawks use Millsap in this series and who gets some of his extra minutes if Atlanta eases him back in.
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