Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/16/15

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Madison Bumgarner - FD 10500 DK 10500 DFSTR 3100
Bumgarner got hit around a little bit in his first start, but it looks like noise to me. The 7 Ks to 1 BB were solid, and these things happen some time. We all know the story from last season for the Giants' ace: the 219 Ks against 43 BB speak for themselves. What you really have to like about Bumgarner today (especially for cash games) are the match-up and the park. The Giants' home park depresses power hitting quite a bit, and the Diamondbacks managed just a .299 wOBA against left handed pitching last year. He's the only clear ace going today, and investing this much salary on a high multiplier in a game where the Giants should be favored is looking pretty good, to me.

Archie Bradley - FD 7400 DK 6400 DFSTR 3000
If you're looking to just go off board for an interesting punt play, Archie Bradley is somewhat fascinating. He's clearly a dog to register the win here, but the park is great, the Giants aren't exactly teeming with pop, and he posted some pretty nice K rates in the minors. There's absolutely a scenario in which he posts the highest points per dollar performance of any pitcher on the board.

Big Gap

Also considered: It's tough to give you any other pitcher in good faith, today. Our projection system thinks Dillon Gee is an interesting play in a good park against a team that strikes out against righties a ton, but I would have a heck of a hard time pullingt he trigger there. It also like Cole Hamels, but he looks like a poor man's version of Bumgarner to me, so I'm not sure why you'd do that.

 

Catcher

Wilson Ramos - FD 3000 DK 3400 DFSTR 6000
Our top catcher selection from yesterday stuffed the stat sheet against Boston, going 2/5 with 2 runs and 3 RBI, and generally sent ripples of delight throughout the industry. Tonight's match-up is decidedly less rosy, as Cole Hamels is no slouch. But Ramos is simply good against left handed pitching - posting a .355 wOBA against southpaws last season. Throw in the anecdotal nice pop he's shown so far this season, and I'd be comfortable grabbing him here on a day where catcher is pretty thin.

Carlos Ruiz - FD 2300 DK 3500 DFSTR 4800
If you're looking to escape the position cheaply tonight (and I don't blame you if you are, it really does suck), I am going to take a hard look at Ruiz. His high contact style is perfectly suited to Fister's no K style, and he went 2/5 with a run and an RBI when the Phils faced Fister on the 11th. After taking a game off against the Mets, I'd expect Chooch will be back in full force against Fister on Thursday.

Early slate consideration: Jonathan Lucroy. He's been terrible this year so far, but he's basically platoon neutral, and I really like him against the awful stuff Lackey is throwing out there so far this year in the Spring and his first regular season start.

First Base

Early slate special:
Kendrys Morales - FD 3000 DK 4700 DFSTR 5300
Morales is off to a killer start to the season, and there's some part of me that wonders if he's finally healthy again after notoriously breaking his leg while stomping on home plate. He's showing that bell tower power again, smacking line drives, and drawing walks. While he hits for better power against right handed pitching, Milone's lack of stuff should more than make up for it. The once "crafty lefty" posted a 4.56 xFIP last year, and couldn't strike out my 2 year old son. Well, he probably could. But Morales is a lot better than my 2 year old. Love this play today.

Brandon Belt - FD 3200 DK 4000 DFSTR 6200
While I think Bradley has some promise, the similarly unpolished Belt was made for match-ups like these. His patient approach should put him into some hitters counts against the young D-Backs prospect, and while he may put some Ks up, some long balls are absolutely in play as well. I expect that Belt will be a very heavy start today.

Ryan Zimmerman - FD 3500 DK 4100 DFSTR 6500
Yeah, so, it's a pretty weird slate we're looking at today. Zimmerman is off to a pretty lousy start from a triple slash perspective, but there's still a lot to like. The two homers are very promising after hitting just 5 last season, and the walk rate is looking excellent as well. Zimmerman has seen the ball a lot better against lefties over the course of his career, and even in a tough match-up with Hamels, he's one of the best 1B options from a points per dollar perspective today.

Second Base

Early Slate:
Brian Dozier - FD 3200 DK 4700 DFSTR 6900
Dozier is back down to very affordable prices for what he can potentially do. He hit 23 homers and swiped 21 bags in 2014, which is plain ridiculous upside production for a second baseman. He also did almost all of that damage against lefties. He'll square off against Jason Vargas in this one - who isn't exactly a banner left hander - and should be in great position to crush.

Joe Panik - FD 2400 DK 3300 DFSTR 4700
Panik has been pretty darn lousy so far this season, but this isn't a play you're taking for its incredible upside. He doesn't hit for power, and he doesn't really run, but he DOES bat 2nd against right handed pitchers, which counts for something. His high contact approach will lead to base-running opportunities (and eventually runs and RBI), and his spot in the order should give him a pretty high floor. If you want to escape the position cheaply, he's your guy.

Chase Utley - FD 3700 DK 4000 DFSTR 6300
He's expensive, but your 2nd base options are just so terrible today that he's your guy if you are looking for upside. Utley showed a .30 wOBA point split favoring hitting against right handers last year, so we can only really consider him in those spots. Fister happens to be right handed, which is nice. And we like him for upside so much precisely because Fister will be around the plate a ton. He could absolutely NOT pay this price off, by the way, but 2nd base is pretty damned bad, and he's your only shot of big upside from the position unless Dee Gordon gets on and runs wild.

 

Shortstop

Jose Reyes - FD 3800 DK 4600 DFSTR 3100
Archer is a fine young pitcher, but this Blue Jays lineup is a murderer's row. Reyes will stand atop it yet again, and his combination of gap power and game changing speed (even if he doesn't use it as much these days) will still leave him as the highest upside play at the position on nights where Tulowitzki isn't going. The rest of the guys at short stop today (outside of Ian Desmond, I guess), have basically no upside whatsoever - so if you're going for a big splash in a big tourney, Reyes will likely have to be your guy.

Yunel Escobar - FD 3000 DK 3000 DFSTR
Escobar has been leading off against left handed pitching, and this makes him the de-facto best shortstop play of the day. But really, there's a decent amount to like from him this year. His K rate is way down, and he's managed to maintain his walk rate. There's basically no upside here, but even in a tough match-up with Hamels, he should get his at bats and be able to put balls in play. After that? Who knows.

Asdrubal Cabrera - FD 3000 DK 4000 DFSTR 5600
Much more a cash game play than a GPP plays, though it hasn't looked like it recently. Cabrera is basically a platoon neutral guy, and this pick bets that he'll be able to use his on base skills to get on base, and rely on the bats around him to bring him home. With how bad Sanchez has looked recently, I think he's a pretty high floor play.

Third Base

Evan Longoria - FD 3700 DK 4500 DFSTR 6400
While Longoria has been a pretty dramatic platoon split guy during his career (and more so recently), there are times when you have to make exceptions. Our projection system is totally unaware that Sanchez has been simply terrible this season, and it still likes Longoria as one of the best points per dollar guys at the position. And, well, Sanchez really has looked bad recently. 6 walks in his final Spring Training game, and 2 BBs and 7 hits against 1 strike out while getting chased in 3.1 innings against the Orioles. Longo's looked more comfortable at the plate to me this year, and I think he could take hold here.

Cody Asche - FD 2700 DK 3700 DFSTR 4300
Asche has been absolutely raking so far this year, and while it's a small sample size, it's a lot better than him looking lost. And really, this is a match-up like you read about for Asche. He's got the platoon advantage, and more, his Achilles heel (his 28.5% strike out rate) his mitigated by the fact that Fister can't strike anyone out. I imagine he'll be a pretty popular play today, and has as much upside as anyone at the position.

Early Slate: Trevor Plouffe. With Plouffe, it's always hammer-time against left handed pitching. I'd say this is something like a must play.

Outfield

Jayson Werth - FD 3400 DK 4300 DFSTR 3100
The upside question at outfield starts and stops with Jayson Werth. Again, it's really hard to recommend what amounts to a stack against one of the best players going, but it's a short slate, and Washington does have some bats. Werth put up a staggering .410 wOBA against left handed pitching last year, which means that he should be able to account for Hamels' skill with his platoon edge. Now, this could wind up looking bad if Hamels shuts them down - but if you're looking for upside, here's where it is.

Angel Pagan - FD 3300 DK 3600 DFSTR 6300
Norichika Aoki - FD 3300 DK DFSTR 6300
Pagan put up a wOBA .70 points higher against right handed pitching than left handed pitching last season, and it's fairly slim pickings in the outfield for the late slate tonight. Aoki is spraying line drives all over, walking more, and being very aggressive on the basepaths. Bradley's unpolished approach should give him plenty of time to do his thing, and both of these guys have sneaky upside if Bradley presses in a tough match-up with Bumgarner. I kind of love these guys at the top of the order along with Panik for stack purposes.

Jose Bautista - FD 4700 DK 4900 DFSTR 3100
Bautista blasted a homer against a right hander last night, and while Archer is a much better pitcher than Ramirez, Bautista can still mash a righty. He posted a .387 wOBA against right handed pitchers last year, and nearly a .500 SLG. If you wind up saving up elsewhere, Bautista represents one of the highest upside plays on the board tonight.

Also considered: Ben Revere.

Early Slate: The Brewers guys - Parra, Braun, and Davis. Our system likes them all against Lackey.
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