Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/14/15

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Pitcher

Matt Harvey - FD 9900 DK 9300 DFSTR 3100
Harvey is the de facto ace of the slate tonight, and he also happens to be the one with the best match-up as well. The Phils were 27th in the league against right handers last year (with a putrid .294 wOBA), and Buchanan is no great shakes as a starter. Harvey was also fantastic against a much better lineup his last time out - going 6 innings with 9 Ks and a BB. And then there's Citi Field - one of the friendliest places for pitchers to pitch in the majors. On a day with only a few bigger money pitchers going, this is looking like the easiest play on the board.

Hisashi Iwakuma - FD 8500 DK 9100 DFSTR 3100
The Dodgers were one of the best teams in the league at hitting right handed pitching, but with the departure of a few key bats, I'm not liking their chances to repeat that title this year. And Iwakuma has a few other things going for him here. First - David Huff pitching for the home team means that Iwakuma should have an elevated chance for the win. Next, Dodger stadium is one of the best pitchers' parks in the league. All and all, this looks like a very safe way to go if you don't want to follow the crowd with Harvey.

Trevor Cahill - FD 6600 DK 5300 DFSTR 3100
If you want an interesting play that may be off board tonight, consider Trevor Cahill. He's cheap, which means you'll get to spend up a ton elsewhere. He's facing the Marlins, who struck out at the second highest rate (23.3%) of any team against opposing righties last season. And he's facing Tom Koehler, the very definition of a league average-below average starter. The issue with Cahill will always be the walks - but he will have games where he stays more around the plate. If he does, his high K rate could turn this into a nice game to grab Cahill in big tournaments.

 

Catcher

Travis d'Arnaud - FD 3000 DK 3800 DFSTR 5000
D'Arnaud didn't exactly light the world on fire in his rookie campaign, but there's still a lot to like about grabbing value with him this season. First of all, his BABIP was FAR below the established levels he had in the minors. And while some regression was likely, he went from a .360 guy to a .260 guy. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Buchanan is one of the worst pitchers on the slate today, and D'Arnaud actually posted a wOBA .16 points higher against right handed pitching last season. Nice spot while the price still reflects last season's production.

Buster Posey - FD 4400 DK 4300 DFSTR 7400
I haven't even looked at all of the Giants guys today, but I'll submit a guess that Posey won't be the last one listed. Bergman is basically a fringe 5th starter - the guy posted a 4.6 FIP in the minors last season. A hitter with Posey's polish and bat speed is going to crush Bergman's D- stuff. This is exactly the type of situation where Posey will take hold, even if the platoon match-up isn't Posey's ideal.

Brian McCann - FD 3400 DK 4700 DFSTR 6400
We give you McCann every time he's facing a righty at home, it seems like, and here we are again. He was fantastic in his last two starts, and delivered on the power against righties that our projection system has been pointing to for 2 seasons. Miguel Gonzalez was one of the luckiest pitchers in the league last year - posting a 3.23 ERA in spite of his 4.46 xFIP. His 37% ground ball rate and lack of control this season shouldn't play in Yankee stadium, either, and this could be some serious feasting.

First Base

Albert Pujols - FD 4000 DK 5200 DFSTR 8000
If there's a worse fit for skills and park than Nick Martinez and Globe Life Park, I'm not sure I'm aware of it. Martinez struck out fewer than 5 guys per 9 innings last year, and 68% of the balls that he did allow in play were in the air. Just not a great fit for a homer-friendly park. Pujols has shown early that the power hasn't gone anywhere. Great day for an Angels stack.

Prince Fielder - FD 3800 DK 4900 DFSTR 7100
Drew Rucinski draws the start for the Angels today, and while he was pretty good in AA last year... he was in AA last year. And he's a less than top tier prospect. This is me thinking that he's going to have a tough time heading into Arlington and facing the Rangers and their professional hitters will go less than well. Fielder should have some good RBI and run scoring opportunities here, and I'm not ready to believe that last season's power outage is legit, yet.

Ike Davis - FD 2800 DK 4100 DFSTR 5500
It feels early in the season to have this many awful pitchers going in a single day, but here we are. Asher Wojciechowski posted a 4.85 FIP in AAA last season, and looked utterly lost and embarrassed in his season debut against the Indians. Davis is going to be a guy who our system is going to love against bad righties like this because of the way the daily fantasy baseball sites price guys. He's abysmal against left handers, but more than serviceable against righties - posting a .356 wOBA for his career. That's plenty against a pitcher like Woj, and his non-pedigree.

Also considered: Yonder Alonso

 

Second Base

Ben Zobrist - FD 3100 DK 4500 DFSTR 6800
Our system really thinks Wojciechowski is in for a world of hurt in what will likely be a brief run at starting this year. And Zobrist has actually been a lot tougher than his triple slash line suggests. He's been impossible to K this year (just once in 30 at bats as of this writing), and a BABIP 60 points below his career norms is the only thing keeping him in check. This could be a break out game.

Rougned Odor - FD 3000 DK 4600 DFSTR 4600
Odor! This guy has a special place in DFSR fame as the guy who showed up atop our 2B charts last season every time the Rangers played a righty, in spite of the fact that he never played. The reason? Rougned can hit a right handed pitcher, and our system is far from convinced that Rucinski is going to do anything against the Rangers. Odor's looked great so far this season - flashing gap power+ and a decent batting eye. This could be the beginning of a steady price climb for him.

Jose Altuve - FD 3900 DK 4700 DFSTR 7400
While we can't count on Altuve to repeat last year (the .360 BABIP thing actually isn't implausible for him, but it is above career norms), he's still a guy that can go out and put up numbers on any given day just due to the amount of balls he puts in play. Kendall Graveman was just awful against Texas, and Altuve should be in position to rifle some balls in play today. Altuve's always a reasonable bet for double up formats, and I don't mind him in big tournaments tonight either considering Graveman's potential to get chased early.

For cheap: Joe Panik. His career 25 K / 17 BB ratio against righties means we could see lots of time on base and potential run scoring opportunities - especially against the lousy Bergman.

 

Shortstop

Jose Reyes - FD 3900 DK 5100 DFSTR 7600
Early in the season, you're going to see a lot of the same names in these articles until prices coalesce one way or the other. Reyes is tearing the cover off the ball early in this young season, and while Andriese has shown some promise in the minors, he's going to have his hands full with this Blue Jays squad. Reyes is going to spray line drives all over the place, and if they land on the ground, he could have a ridiculous game here.

Asdrubal Cabrera - FD 2800 DK 4100 DFSTR 5900
If you want to go cheaper and have a similar floor from a points per dollar perspective, Cabrera might be your guy. His platoon neutral and contact-driven approach will continue to make him a no-ceiling and high floor play on these prices, especially against young pitching. It also doesn't hurt that most of the guys around him prefer left handed pitching.

Elvis Andrus - FD 3000 DK 4300 DFSTR 5400
Man, it really isn't easy rooting for Andrus on a given night. But it's great match-up with Rucinski, and he'll be batting 2nd amid a sea of dudes who should be able to knock him in. And don't forget the speed - he hasn't used it this season, but he did steal 27 bases last season. He's still capable of a big game on these prices.

Also considered: Jed Lowrie.

Third Base

Adrian Beltre - FD 3800 DK 4900 DFSTR 7600
I write this about Beltre every time he's facing some crappy righty at home, but Beltre goes from being a must-play against lefties to a "still clear play" against crappy righties at home. Old man river put up a .349/.398/.531 line against all right handers at home last season, and Rucinski represents a level of skill far below the median player Beltre faced last season. He's too good, and Rucinski is too raw, to make this be anything other than a mismatch.

Evan Longoria - FD 3800 DK 4600 DFSTR 6500
You've got to pay for it, but I love grabbing Longoria today. It's easy to forget who Longoria was before last year's lost season. He's a guy who put up a .917 OPS (and .385 wOBA) against left handers for his career. Norris has flashed some ridiculous stuff in the minors, but he also allowed plenty of hard-hit balls. Longoria could blank out on you here - so I'd rather grab Beltre for cash games, but there's huge upside here.

Josh Harrison - FD 3300 DK 4300
While some of Harrison's 2014 breakout campaign was smoke and mirrors - I'm not sure if we can count on the batting average OR the power to hold up - there was still a lot to like. Harrison puts the ball in play well, and can definitely run. And speaking of smoke and mirrors, our system is a lot more bearish on Shane Greene than many are. He posted his highest strikeout rate since A ball in 2010 after moving to the Major Leagues, which isn't really a normal transition. I think Harrison's BABIP and his legs make him a high floor, potentially high ceiling guy.

Conor Gillaspie - FD 2200 DK 2800 DFSTR
Gillaspie is a minimum salary player (and, granted, he doesn't hit home runs or steal bases, but hang in there for a sec), and he batted .300 against right handers last season. Carrasco isn't the easiest match-up on the board today, but you're not paying anything.

Also considered: Brett Lawrie.

Outfield

Kole Calhoun - FD 3500 DK 4900 DFSTR 6000
Mike Trout - FD 5000 DK 6000 DFSTR 9200
Both of these guys can get the barrel on the ball against right handed pitching, and in case you didn't notice, our projection system is very bearish on Martinez's chance in this game. Trout's due for his first monster game of the season, and Kalhoun already realized his first big game of the season last night. I'm a huge buyer of these guys tonight.

Desmond Jennings - FD 2800 DK 4400 DFSTR 5900
Jennings is showing a fantastic batting eye so far in this young season, and he's also running like crazy. We want to be careful about small sample sizes, but these are two trends that scouts always predicted when forecasting Jennings' career. Also, our projection system has no idea what's happened so far this season, figuring that anything we've seen so far is more noise than signal. If he's going to be a 15/20 guy again, this price is ridiculously low.

Carlos Beltran - FD 3000 DK 4100 DFSTR 6800
I wrote about Gonzalez's short-comings in McCann's write-up, and they obviously still hold true for Beltran as well. Beltran's on the wrong side of his prime by a long shot, but there's still some pop in his bat (12 homers in 296 PA against RHP last season isn't half-bad), and he's still in the heart of the order.

Melky Cabrera - FD 2700 DK 3800 DFSTR
The Melk man hasn't delivered so far this season, but this is baseball(!), and that's going to happen. Melky hit .310 against right handers last season, and he's batting in front of some legit bats in Abreu and LaRoche. While Carrasco showed a lot of promise last season, I'm not ready to crown him just yet. Melky is a nice, safe, cheap option at low prices tonight.

Norichika Aoki - FD 3200 DK
If you want a guy without much ceiling, but with a huge floor, take a look at Aoki. I've already badmouthed poor Christian Bergman enough here, and I hope you've gotten the drift. Aoki and his 9% K rate is a virtual lock to put the ball in play against Bergman, and there should be plenty of counting stat upside if things get out of hand.

Also considered: Matt Joyce, Michael Cuddyer, Jose Bautista.

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