Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/10/15

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On to the hoops!

Point Guards

Russell Westbrook - FD 12300 DK 11600 DFSTR
Westbrook got shut down by San Antonio yet again, but the situation remains just as dire in OKC. With the Thunder tied with the Pelicans for the eight seed, it's impossible to imagine Westbrook not playing a ton of minutes and doing his thing. Westbrook had one great game against Sacramento and one total disaster this season, but that's neither here nor there as far as I'm concerned. Sacramento has given up 5% more points and 10% more assists than league average to opposing point guards, and their collective hearts just won't be in this one to keep Russ down. You can afford him with all the cheap guys today. I say you pay him.

Zach LaVine - FD 6100 DK 5900 DFSTR
I'm loving me some LaVine with these increased minutes and the best match-up in the league. The Lakers have allowed a staggering 14% more points and 11% more rebounds than league average to opposing point guards, and LaVine has averaged 18/5/4 against them this season. That'd be a fine result on these prices in and of itself, but LaVine's also handling the ball a lot more recently, and is coming off a 7x points per dollar and a 5.5x points per dollar couple of games recently. LaVine will be a huge play tonight, and rightfully so. The upside is huge.

Greivis Vasquez - FD 4300 DK 4800 DFSTR
Steady hands finally paid off for Vasquez in the game against Charlotte, and that's really what we're pointing out by recommending him night after night. Now, this is dependent on Lowry indeed missing Friday's game (and there's some buzz that he'll be back). The story with Vasquez remains the same as long as he priced in the low $4,000s and in the starting lineup. The opportunity doesn't match the price. It doesn't hurt that Orlando is solidly below average against point guards, too. Great spot if Lowry's out again.

 

Shooting Guards

Dion Waiters - FD 4500 DK 4700 DFSTR
Waiters nearly paid this price en route to the Thunder getting blown out to the Spurs, so I guess you could say I love him even more in a game that the Thunder literally have to win against the Kings. The story is the same as other times I've recommended him - the minutes are just huge, and the Thunder are low enough on offensive weapons, that Waiters is a great play in all formats against the Kings' up-tempo squad.

Kevin Martin - FD 6800 DK 6000 DFSTR
Just when you think Martin may have lost a step or two, he puts up a game like the one he dropped on the Kings: 37/5/8 en route to being in winning GPP lineups. Then, when you think he's back, he lays a stinker like he did against the Blazers. Listen, at this stage in Martin's career he is going to have some good games and bad. In this game? He'll draw the Lakers - who have allowed 5% more points, 6% more rebounds, and 14% more assists than league average to opposing shooting guards. Martin will get swallowed up by teams with athletic wings and a lot of determination. The Lakers ain't that.

Ben McLemore - FD 4200 DK 4200 DFSTR
I like the above guys quite a bit more, but McLemore is really growing on me as other teams drift into playing time uncertainty. With Gay out again, McLemore played 38 minutes against the Jazz, and I imagine he'll be in line for similar run if Gay's concussion is acting up against the Thunder on Friday. I think he's a very interesting play in all formats, and I'd rank him higher if I weren't a little bit concerned that the Kings will get run out of the gym by a hyper-motivated Westbrook & co.

Also considered: Anthony Morrow. Guy has some huge games off the bench recently.

Small Forwards

Omri Casspi - FD 4500 DK 4800 DFSTR
If you played Casspi in any of the last five games, you were happy. And with Gay likely out of the lineup against the Thunder yet again on Friday, Casspi will be a main feature of all of my lineups. His confidence is growing (as evidenced by his 31 point outburst against the Wolves two games ago), and the Kings really don't have anyone else to play at the position. The minutes look pretty secure even if the game gets out of hand, and I love spending on him here so we can pay up for some big guys on good multipliers today.

Tobias Harris - FD 6500 DK 6600 DFSTR
After doing everything short of buying the guy flowers before the Chicago game, there's a little egg on my face right now (it's egg, I swear). But in non-blowouts, Harris is going to play high 30s (or even 40s) minutes, unless he has a random horrid shooting game like he did against the Bulls. That's a pretty damned good situation. And the Raptors' small forward situation is leaving quite a bit to be desired at the moment. I'm already excited to watch him abuse Terrence Ross. Before the Bulls disaster, Harris had 4 games in a row at or above 5x points per dollar, and I think he rebounds nicely here.

Richard Jefferson - FD 3500 DK 3100 DFSTR
Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 4200 DK 3900 DFSTR
With Parsons ruled out again on Friday, whichever of these two starts becomes a great value play. Denver's fast pace and bad defense have allowed 7% more scoring and 11% more rebounding to opposing small forwards this season, and this will be a nice respite - playing a terrible and unmotivated team - instead of two playoff contenders in Phoenix and Golden State. This is a great opportunity for the price, if you decide you want to go double cheap with Casspi and one of the two Mavs here.

 

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis - FD 11900 DK 11000 DFSTR
On a day where you can save at basically every position, you'll need to decide where to spend up. With Lebron possibly taking a breather, and Harden facing a Spurs team that just bottled him up, Davis is my guy. The Pelicans need to win this game, and Davis put up a 19/18 game against the Suns the last time they faced one another. The best players in the league come up in the biggest games of the season, and Davis has arguably the highest floor and highest ceiling of any big money guy (including Westbrook) if only because his game is a lot less likely to be a blowout.

Ryan Kelly - FD 4500 DK 4200 DFSTR
We've beaten the Ryan Kelly drum for three straight games, and for three straight games, he's been a fine play in all formats. I know, I know. Kelly is impossibly painful to watch on the court. He does very little well, and exactly nothing athletically. But we're not drafting real life basketball teams, we're drafting make believe ones. And Kelly has a pretty sweet gig in LA right now. He's playing a lot of minutes, and the Lakers have no one. Minnesota is also an ideal match-up for him. They've allowed 5% more points, rebounds, AND assists than league average to opposing power forwards this season, and I think Kelly has another nice game here.

Jason Thompson - FD 4700 DK 3900 DFSTR
Carl Landry - FD 3600 DK 3100 DFSTR
With Boogie out (and likely Gay as well), there are both minutes and shots to go around. They both paid fantastically last game, and there's really no reason to think they won't be able to manage the same even in a relatively tough match-up with OKC's big front court. Don't get dissuaded by a bad match-up on paper - this isn't a match-up play. This is a price play. And I love these guys for big tournaments.

Also considered: Marvin Williams, Dirk Nowitzki.

 

Center

Brandan Wright - FD 4900 DK 5500 DFSTR
Justin Hamilton - FD 5000 DK 4800 DFSTR
Bismack Biyombo - FD 4500 DK 5000 DFSTR
I wrote this about these three guys for Wednesday:
God, there are so many great low-priced center options that it honestly feels like a coinflip when it comes to choosing one. It's basically a coinflip between these three for me, with the nod going to Wright since his minutes appear to be the most secure. On sites where you can play more than one of these guys, DO IT. Free money.

Well, it didn't quite play out as I thought it would. Wright was the only guy who really came through, on the back of the minutes we figured he'd get. Our projection system loves all three of these guys, and I kinda do too, but i'll take Wright as the head of this class. Hamilton's got the best match-up, but his minutes are wobbly. Biyombo is volatile. All three are great GPP plays, but I'll take Wright for cash games.

Enes Kanter - FD 7400 DK 7500 DFSTR
If the money doesn't work out for you to grab yet another cheap guy, Kanter will be a pretty big play tonight as well. With no Boogie rolling, he'll get the back-up poo-poo platter of Jason Thompson and Carl Landry (listed above!). Kanter was on a roll of three straight games with 21/16 or better before running into the buzz-saw of San Antonio, and I think he'll go right back to the well here.

 

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