Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/4/15

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Point Guards

Tyreke Evans - FD 7800 DK 7600 DFSTR 6300
In close games recently, Evans has been handling the ball a ton and playing a lot of minutes. With the Pels still breathing, I imagine they'll work Evans until they're either in or out of the picture. I'm looking to the recent game against Houston for guidance here. In a worse match-up, he put up 42 fantasy points on 38 minutes. Lillard has been pretty horrible on defense this year, allowing 5% more scoring and 18% more rebounding to opposing point guards. With a lot of uncertainty around other teams that already have their playoff picture locked up, I'll go for the still-hungry any day.

Greivis Vasquez - FD 4100 DK 5000 DFSTR 4000
From last night's picks:
Vasquez's minutes continue to be in the 30s, and his price stays the same. Why? He went out and put up 5.5x points per dollar against the Wolves his last time out, and has flashed 7x-8x upside in recent games as well. Sure, there are some clunkers in there as well, but you can't get this kind of upside at higher price points. Vasquez is the guy that helps you afford the big money guys that you'll want to play tonight. The Nets, for their part, have been slightly below average against opposing point guards this season - but this is a case of price and opportunity matching up. I'll play him everywhere once again.

I'm writing this as of halftime in the Brooklyn game, and he's on pace to pay something like 4.5x points per dollar. Not exactly lighting the world on fire, but that's the thing about this price - the floor is ridiculously high. I'm going to keep plugging away with him until the inevitable breakout game comes. And it will come.

Deron Williams - FD 6600 DK 6300 DFSTR 5600
Sure, he's one of the least likable players in the NBA on the league's most boring team, but have you seen what Williams has been providing on these prices recently? He's put up 30+ fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 contests, and has crushed that number a handful of times as well. What's going on? Well, the Nets are also in a "battle" for one of the bottom seeds in the East, and Williams has been a prime beneficiary. His minutes have been slightly up, his assist totals have been up, and he's been shooting more as well. Given that Atlanta has locked up home court advantage, I think Williams will take advantage, and put up another big game.

Also considered: Listen, I saw what Chris Paul did the last time around as well, and if you can save the money, I wouldn't kill you for playing him against Denver. Blowout risk, though.

 

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal - FD 5800 DK 6000 DFSTR 5300It's less than an ideal match-up for Beal tonight, but with the position as shallow as it is right now, he'll still be a guy who finds his way into most of my lineups. The 18 shots he took in two of his last three games represent his 4th and 5th highest totals of the season, and it's clear that the Wiz are going to give him all the run they can handle as they try to battle for home court in the first round of the playoffs. The indicators are good on Beal, and the price is still low, making him a fine cash game play with some GPP upside to go with it if he catches fire.

Monta Ellis - FD 6900 DK 6700 DFSTR 6200
I kind of love Ellis here for GPP purposes against a Golden State team that has nothing to play for. He's been the very definition of erratic recently, but the minutes are still in the high 30s, and he's posted 2 45+ fantasy point performances in his last 4 games against two playoff teams. I'm just not sweating this calf injury on a night like tonight - I'll take the guy who's putting up shot after shot against a team that won't be hungry any day.

Lou Williams - FD 5000 DK 5400 DFSTR
Shooting guard is just awful tonight. So here I am, presenting a back-up at the position. To be fair to Williams, though, he's actually paid off just fine on this price on each of his last 4 games (EDIT: He's also crushing it on these minutes late into Friday's game), and all the indicators are relatively secure. Lowry's being out as jostled things in such a way that Williams is still getting plenty of looks with the second unit, and has been sort of a force on a points per minute basis. With the Raps still jockeying for playoff position, I expect that he'll continue to get his usual run in a fairly competitive game against the Celtics.

Also considered: DeMar DeRozan really is handling the ball a ton right now, but our projection system doesn't believe in the price. Just giving you a heads up.

Small Forwards

Tobias Harris - FD 6400 DK 6400 DFSTR 5900
For one reason or another, the Magic see it fit to play Harris 40 minutes a night in a lost season fresh off of an injury. IDK what's going on. But what I do know is that he's paid nearly 5x in each of his last two games at this price, and is on pace to eclipse that number as of this writing against the Timberwolves. In Harris you're going to get a ton of minutes and a lot of usage, and that's not the easiest thing to find at mid-tier prices this time of year. Milwaukee's been basically league average against opposing small forwards this season, but they have allowed 12% more rebounds than league average to the position, making this a pretty sweet spot to get him in there.

Gerald Henderson - FD 5600 DK 5700 DFSTR 5000
Charlotte's been one of the weirdest teams ever recently - getting blown out by the Pacers one day, and blowing out the Hawks the next. Thus, it's been pretty hard to get a firm grip on what they really want to do with Henderson right now. But that said, I'd guess that the Hornets are not at risk of getting blown out by the Sixers, and the Sixers' up and down style could lead to a fine game here. Moreover, when the Hornets have been on the winning end of the blowouts, Henderson has averaged 27+ fantasy points. I expect him to be a huge start in double ups and 50/50s tonight.

A jumble
There are three guys I could think about for this last spot (which means I'll just play the above guys, thank you very much). Each of them looks good in our projection system, but has contextual question marks. Luol Deng looks good, especially with Wade ailing or potentially out. Wilson Chandler has had some fine games, but just laid an epic egg. PJ Tucker is playing solid minutes, but there's blowout risk. Meh.

Keep an eye on Paul Pierce. If he sits, Otto Porter will be the play of the day once again.

 

Power Forwards

Marvin Williams - FD 4800 DK 5100 DFSTR 3900
Not so starvin' Marvin! Here's what I wrote last night:

It's something I've written a thousand times and I'm sure I'll write ten thousand more times, but the price doesn't fit the opportunity. He's averaged 28 fantasy points per game in his last 4 games, which is a GPP winning ratio. When positions are this confusing I love to escape them cheaply with a high floor, and Williams will help me do just that.

And then he went out and put up 31.6 FanDuel points against the Pacers - his highest total of his recent run as a starter. Trends are great for Williams, and this is his best match-up yet. It's an easy play, for me.

Blake Griffin - FD 9500 DK 8600 DFSTR 8200
On a night where it might be tough to spend the money, this is a spot where you can do it. I'm a little lukewarm on Paul just due to the insanity of the price, but Blake's remains very reasonable for what he could give you here. Denver's allowed 2% more scoring and 6% more rebounds than league average to opposing power forwards this season, and Blake's a game removed from putting 40 and 12 on Golden State. If the game doesn't get out of hand (and even if it does, frankly), Blake's my favorite big money play of the night.

Dirk Nowitzki - FD 6000 DK 5900 DFSTR 6500
Our projection system has been right on Dirk to a scary degree recently, and most of that comes down to sussing out match-ups. With Dirk, though, you also get a ridiculous price and a great match-up. The Warriors are great on defense normally, but they really don't have anyone that can cover Dirk. A lot of people will point to a lack of success against the Warriors early this season - but Dirk was actually getting his shots (17 a game instead of his season total of 14/game), and they weren't falling. He's a lot safer tonight than most will give him credit for.

 

Center

Brandan Wright - FD 4900 DK 5000 DFSTR 3800
With Len's face being broken in half, Wright is pretty well slated to play 28-30 minutes. We're back in a too low price for the opportunity situation, and in spite of a very tough match-up with Gobert, I'll still play Wright everywhere. He's got some ridiculous fantasy games out of the starting lineup (not the least of which was his 16 and 12 with 2 blocks and 2 steals last game against Golden State), and he's the high floor/high ceiling play of the night.

Jonas Valanciunas - FD 6100 DK 6000 DFSTR 5600
If you want a little bit of separation from the herd that will be following Wright, Valanciunas makes an interesting homerun play. The minutes are all over the place for the young Lithuanian, so what you're buying into here is upside. When things break right for Jonas, you get a performance like he put in against Brooklyn on Friday night: 21 and 9 with a block and a steal in 36 minutes. Boston is the type of team that could facilitate one of his great nights. They don't really have anyone down low that should get him into his typical foul trouble, and they've allowed 11% more points than league average to opposing Centers this season. Me, though? I'll play Wright.

Also considered: Brook Lopez. Interesting play against a Hawks team with nothing to gain from the contest.
 

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