PGA Daily Fantasy Picks
Shell Houston Open

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Shell Houston Open

Golf Club of Houston - Humble, Texas
Par 72, 7,441 Yards

Well, here we are one week closer to the Masters and I don't know about you but I am getting very excited. The first ever Daily Fantasy Golf Millionaire Maker over at Draftkings only boosts the level of excitement for me. A chance to win a million bucks for a $20 entry? Ummm, yes please! If you haven't reserved your seat yet be sure to get into some satellites this week for as low as $.25 to win a ticket. You can even enter satellites in other sports to try and win your way in. Oh, and if you are looking for some analysis on a few golfers to help you get your way to the million be sure to check out my article next week where I will highlight a few extra golfers to target for the Masters. Before we get ahead of ourselves with all the Masters talk we have to get through this weekend and the Shell Houston Open.

The players travel to Humble, Texas this week for the Shell Houston Open, the last tournament before the Masters. This tournament hosts 15 of the top 30 golfers in the world. The course, a Rees Jones design, has been used in the Houston Open since 2006 and proves to be a great warm up to Masters as it closely replicates Augusta National. In researching past tournaments I am noticing that the best players in the field are consistently rising to the top of the leaderboard. Much like the Masters, the golfers with the best all around game have the greatest chance at winning this week. Most of the golfers with good track records here are long hitters who hit lots of greens. Not to say that accuracy guys don't do well here, as they have in the past, but I will be concentrating on the longer guys. To select the cream of crop this week I will be focusing on Course History(back to 2006), Current Form, and of course these statistical categories.

• Strokes Gained:Tee to Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Greens in Regulation
• Driving Distance
• Scoring Average

Tier 1 Targets (DK Price $9000-Max)

Matt Kuchar - $11,400 (Vegas Odds – 19/1)
So here we are with my first pick of the week. I had Henrik Stenson plugged into this slot until he withdrew today so I had to move Kuch up to the #1 spot. When I factored in Stats, Course History, and Current For, Kuchar stood out. The thing that, in my mind, separated him from the other top guys is his course history. He first played here in 2007 and missed cut but since has two T8's and a runner up last year. In the 2015 portion of the PGA season he has a T2 and a T3 and his worst finish has been a T33. He is probably one of the most consistent golfers on Tour and gets to a course he has really had success at in the past. His stats back definitely back up his consistency.

• Strokes Gained:Tee to Green - 2014(12) 2015(40)
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 2014(15) 2015(15)
• Greens in Regulation - 2014(40) 2015(114)
• Driving Distance - 2014(136) 2015(145)
• Scoring Average - 2014(5) 2015(14)

Sergio Garcia - $9600 (Vegas Odds – 29/1)
I am really liking Sergio this week as he is another guy who hasn't quite put it all together for a win yet this year but has been solid. Garcia has a pretty good season to date with a T31 at the WGC and the Honda and a T4 at the Northern Trust. Sergio placed T77 back in 2007 here but came in 3rd here last season.He also has finishes among the leaders in my average rank for the 5 categories I chose.

• Strokes Gained:Tee to Green - 2014(2) 2015(20)
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 2014(61) 2015(31)
• Greens in Regulation - 2014(14) 2015(96)
• Driving Distance - 2014(57) 2015(24)
• Scoring Average - 2014(2) 2015(8)

Lee Westwood - $9200 (Vegas Odds – 41/1)
For my third pick in my top tier I am rolling with Lee Westwood. He is much like Kuchar and Garcia in that he always seems to frequent the top 30 every time he plays, he has a good track history here(T17,T10,T21,T30,T8,T11 last 6 years) and some nice stats to go along with it.

• Strokes Gained:Tee to Green - 2014(49) 2015(21)
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 2014(65) 2015(17)
• Greens in Regulation - 2014(123) 2015(132)
• Driving Distance - 2014(71) 2015(51)
• Scoring Average - 2014(81) 2015(12)

Tier 2 Targets (DK Price $6000-$8900)

Keegan Bradley - $8900 (Vegas Odds – 41/1)
Keegan is a borderline Tier 1 but I had to break my salary somewhere. He has a decent course history(T43,T10,T4,T51). He missed his only cut in 2015 at the Honda. He has been more inconsistent this year than last, as his stats and results show but if he can start hitting GIR and putting better he will grab another win soon. Maybe even this week perhaps!

• Strokes Gained:Tee to Green - 2014(29) 2015(16)
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 2014(47) 2015(132)
• Greens in Regulation - 2014(46) 2015(110)
• Driving Distance - 2014(17) 2015(16)
• Scoring Average - 2014(17) 2015(101)

Charley Hoffman - $7,500 (Vegas Odds – 51/1)
Hoffman is coming off a T11 at the Valero even after a 79 on Saturday. That is how tough it was last week. He has been up and down for the most part this season but has a T2 at the Humana and won back in the fall at the OHL. He also comes back to the Shell Houston Open with a decent track record(T37,T20,T75,T24 last 4 years). Not great but has made every cut and flashes signs of winning. If he can avoid those few bad holes he will contend this week.

• Strokes Gained:Tee to Green - 2014(33) 2015(123)
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 2014(44) 2015(39)
• Greens in Regulation - 2014(35) 2015(45)
• Driving Distance - 2014(26) 2015(32)
• Scoring Average - 2014(41) 2015(77)

Russell Henley - $7,000 (Vegas Odds – 81/1)
Henley comes into this week having made every cut so far this year highlighted by a T3 at the Hyundia Tournament of Champions. He finished T8 here last year and with his stats you will see he has improved in all 5 categories over last season so I am expecting to see another good finish.

• Strokes Gained:Tee to Green - 2014(153) 2015(97)
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 2014(28) 2015(19)
• Greens in Regulation - 2014(156) 2015(120)
• Driving Distance - 2014(61) 2015(37)
• Scoring Average - 2014(144) 2015(47)

Danny Willett - $6,900 (Vegas Odds – 81/1)
Did not know anything about Willett before this year but really starting to like him a lot. This is his first trip here which presents a little downside but in his 2 previous PGA Tour starts he has finished T29 at Arnold Palmer Invitational and T12 at the Cadillac Championship. I like the fact not many know of him so he presents a sneaky GPP play that could be less than 10% owned. He doesn't have any stats registered yet on the PGA Tour but he is averaging 295 yards off the tee on the European Tour and hitting 70-75% of GIR in the past 2 seasons as well.

Tier 3 Bargain Value Pick (DK Price Sub $6000)

Stewart Cink - $5,100 (Vegas Odds – 251/1)
My value play of the week was again tough to pick this week. It makes it difficult to find a guy who Vegas expects to miss the cut but I think I might have found someone in Cink who can not only make the cut but could possibly get a T30 or better. He has a mixed track record here(T58,T8,CUT in last 3). It is positive to see the T8 in 2013 which presents the upside at the low price. His stats, especially GIR, can really help this week.

• Strokes Gained:Tee to Green - 2014(82) 2015(81)
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 2014(124) 2015(117)
• Greens in Regulation - 2014(57) 2015(1)
• Driving Distance - 2014(61) 2015(55)
• Scoring Average - 2014(93) 2015(82)

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.

 

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