Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 3/31/15

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Point Guards

Reggie Jackson - FD 8600 DK 8700 DFSTR 5600
Been playing insane lately and could be facing a team of Hawks' backups. Will be interesting to see what Atlanta does tonight and if the starter's are sitting Jackson could be in line for another huge game. This time of year the minutes and defensive matchups get very wonky. Jackson's usage rate thought isn't

Goran Dragic - FD 6500 DK 6900 DFSTR 6300
The Spurs have been about league average against point guards this season and both of these dudes are coming on the cheaper side. Chalmers hasn't been too negatively effected by Wade in the lineup lately mostly because the Heat have been playing short-handed. Dragic meanwhile has been all over the place. Neither guy seems particularly safe but both are rating out very high in our projection system from a points per dollar basis. I'd be hard-pressed to spend up from Steph or CP3 so I think this is the direction you have to go.

George Hill - FD 7400 DK 7500 DFSTR 5700
Hill's seen his shot volume decrease the last two games even though the minutes have still been there. Tough to know if it is a blip on the radar or if he'll just be chucking a little less with the Pacers getting a little healthier. Still think he is a fine play at these prices though my excitement is tempered just a little. On this slate we really need to grab every little bit of value as the plays are less than crystal clear. His price is still right.

Look for Shelvin Mack to be a solid punt if Teague sits. Schroder is already out.

Shooting Guards

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - FD 5300 DK 5900 DFSTR 4400
Had some rough ones last couple of times out thanks to a combined 8-35 from the field line that would crush even the biggest of dreamers. But he's still getting those shots up and is playing close to forty minutes a night right now. The price doesn't match that kind of volume and if he gets back in line even a bit with his shooting then he could crush these prices.

Kyle Korver - FD 4700 DK 4500 DFSTR 4500
Kent Bazemore - FD 4600 DK 4200 DFSTR 3000
The Hawks haven't made it a secret that they plan on resting guys down the stretch here. They are coming off a game last night in which Korver started. Keep an eye out for their plans tonight. Whoever starts is a solid value considering the price and that Detroit doesn't defend all that well. Luckily this is the early game so we will know going into lineup lock.

Strongly consider Klay Thompson

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard - FD 8200 DK 8100 DFSTR 7100
In an around the top tier of salaries, Kawhi is one of the best options. He will be a guy I have in nearly all of my lineups tonight simply because saving elsewhere is easier and I love the upside he has going into this one. Miami could be without Luol Deng which would certainly help Kawhi. The Heat have been better than league average against small forwards this season but Kawhi's been putting up more shots on average of late. On a tougher slate, I really like his skill set for keeping the floor higher.

C.J. Miles - FD 4600 DK 5200 DFSTR 4300
The disclaimer as always with the guy is that the shots needs to be falling or else he will sink you quick. Miles does very little else but score so when he is cold from the field you definitely feel it. It's what keeps his price in check (that and some nagging injuries) so he consistently falls in as a value on average. But know that he tends to deviate a bit more from his mean than you can feel safe with.

Consider Harrison Barnes

Power Forwards

Blake Griffin - FD 8800 DK 8600 DFSTR 8200
For the big money, he's my top play on the night. The Warriors will be without Draymond Green who took a shot at Blake saying Green would be sitting with "Blake-itis". This could add some extra motivation for Griffin. Now, our system doesn't care about this narrative (and really I don't either except that it's funny), but what our system does know is that Blake's price is getting a bit ridiculous. $8,800 on FanDuel is simply too low even if the production has been variable since returning from injury.

Paul Millsap - FD 8300 DK 7300 DFSTR 7300
Millsap is a little off board from our system as it much prefers Blake, but I don't think it's fully accounted for how little size the Pistons are playing with without Monroe. Detroit wasn't good before losing Monroe and last game let up an 18/13 to Udonis freaking Haslem. If Millsap is playing (no guarantee) he could really go to work inside. Of course he might sit this one out, so keep that in mind as well.

David Lee - FD 4300 DK 3800 DFSTR 4600
He only played 21 minutes when starting for Draymond last game, which was more than a little disappointing. Some of that could have been blowout related. It also could be because Kerr and the rest of the Warriors' organization think he sucks. Man I hope it's the former. Lee can put it up with the requisite amount of minutes. He just needs to play. I think he gets a little more run this time around against the Clippers in what should be a closer game. Coming cheap so the downside isn't as stark.

Consider David West but my goodness with his minutes.

Center

Brook Lopez - FD 8200 DK 7800 DFSTR 6900
Pretty much totally dependent on him getting the kind of minutes he's been seeing lately. Bro-Lo's been getting run close to 40 minutes a game which seems nuts, but whatever. He will need every one of them to really pay off against a Pacer team that is better than league average against opposing centers. It's this last point that I think keeps Lopez's ceiling in check. He is an interesting cash game play, though I must admit it feels weird paying this much for him. More a commentary on the position that Lopez specifically.

Al Horford - FD 7100 DK 6400 DFSTR 7200
Andre Drummond - FD 9400 DK 8900 DFSTR 7300
I'm pairing them together for slightly opposite reasons. If Horford plays then I like his price against Drummond who has been beat on by opposing centers this season. If Horford sits then I think Drummond has a much-increased chance at a very solid line.

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