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Once again, there is a ton of value at this position.
Dennis Schroder - FD 5700 DK 5600 DFSTR
It very much looks like Teague will need to miss some more time with his ankle injury which turns this team over to Schroder. He played less minutes than we projected the other night mostly because he didn't play the last 8 or so minutes of the fourth as the Hawks had the game in hand. If he is over 30 minutes (playing with the starters) then you have to love him at these prices. Update: Teague is going to play.
Greivis Vasquez - FD 4000 DK 4600 DFSTR
I get it. He was brutal against the Lakers the other night. Played him everywhere and suffered through the atrocity that was his stat line. He can definitely disappear even in the starting role.
Ish Smith - FD 5800 DK 5900 DFSTR 3300
His minutes have been trending in the upper 20s/ low 30s even with him giving way a bit to Isaiah Canaan. But the Lakers play at such a breakneck pace that opposing point guards and can often hit value as long as the game stays closer. This one should as both these squads blow. Ish can for sure put up the scoring and assist numbers to cover a price that has climbed in the short term.
Mike Conley - FD 5800 DK 6100 DFSTR 6300
The price has really come down of late thanks to injury and some variable minutes. Our projection system loves him in this matchup, but I must admit a little concern that the Grizzlies either A: crush the Kings in this one or B: aren't motivated to give Conley full run on a back-to-back. Regardless, if you think Conley plays his full minute allotment then he is a super solid value against the Kings who struggle with opposing point guards.
DeMar DeRozan - FD 7500 DK 7800 DFSTR 7200
Lou Williams - FD 4800 DK 4900 DFSTR
When Lowry is off the floor these two guys have the highest usage rates on the Raptors and it isn't particularly close. They dominate the ball without the starting point guard and it should continue again tonight. Derozan had a putrid shooting night against the Lakers on Friday, going 1-10 from the field. This is of course an outlier, but has kept his price in check. Williams put together a solid line late. Both should see plenty of shots tonight against the Rockets who have difficulty controlling opposing shooting guard as they allow worse than league average scoring to the position. I wouldn't even mind playing these guys together on two shooting guard sites.
James Harden - FD 11600 DK 11500 DFSTR 9300
Because you can find pretty solid value at the other positions, playing Harden as the big money guy is totally viable. Even with Dwight back and playing minutes in the low twenties, Harden is still the engine of this squad. A subpar game against the Wizards yesterday, but they are a strong defensive group. Toronto has allowed worse than league average scoring to the two guard position. And with guys like Terry starting, the Rockets need Harden to take every shot he can.
Gordon Hayward - FD 8100 DK 8000 DFSTR 7000
I'm not over the moon about the guy, but I like him a great deal more if Favors is out again tonight. With Derrick off the floor, Gordon is the highest usage guy on the Jazz by a sizeable margin. The last two games he's averaged about 18 shots and I expect that kind of volume to continue if Favors were to sit again. Of course you can makea case for Hayward even if Favors is around, but I prefer the first scenario. Minnesota is a weak defensive team to say the least and are extremely banged up right now. Plenty of value other places to fit his salary.
P.J. Tucker - FD 5200 DK 5500 DFSTR 4300
Mostly a price and minutes thing here. Will rarely knock your socks off (figuratively of course, this might be like a thing he's into in real life, I don't know. Don't know the guy personally). Tucker's locked into his small forward minutes for the Suns and will contribute in scoring and rebounding. Chuck in some steals and you are golden with the guy. This will be a high-scoring affair and Tucker should be on the court for long stretches.
Terrence Ross - FD 3700 DK 3900 DFSTR 3500
Wesley Johnson - FD 3900 DK 4100 DFSTR 4300
James Johnson - FD 3800 DK 3500 DFSTR 3800
None inspire a ton of confidence. All are coming in at the minimums. That's the whole case for each. Tough to predict their opportunity. Ross and James Johnson swap minutes at times and Wes J saw more looks with Lin out of the lineup. I'm putting all three up as your punt play specials to take a chance on in a tournament.
Josh Smith - FD 6000 DK 6500 DFSTR 6400
With Donatas and basically every other Rocket power forward type out with injury, the minutes have gone down to Smoove. And he is making the most of them. The last two games have seen him average a 15/10/7 with run in the high 30s. Price hasn't come close to getting there. Should be a very highly owned cash game play and this is with good reason. This one is pretty easy.
Derrick Favors - FD 7700 DK 8000 DFSTR 7200
Trevor Booker - FD 3700 DK 3700 DFSTR
Either one of these guys (whoever is starting) is up against a very weak Timberwolves interior that struggled anyway and now lost Gorgui Dieng yesterday. Even if Dieng plays, Minnesota is devoid of size inside at the four and five. I love either of these guys. Would be much easier if Favors was just out again, as there is the injury to worry about when it comes to his minutes. But honestly, the Timberwolves are ripe for the picking.
Marvin Williams - FD 4500 DK 4500 DFSTR 3700
Marvin was a top system play the other night with Zeller and MKG out and that continues again tonight. He is logging huge minutes out of the four mostly because the Hornets are stretched real thin right now. Minutes will almost assuredly be in the high 30's again tonight. He needs every one of them to hit value as there will be long stretches in which nothing happens for the dude. But these prices are more than right considering his opportunity.
Jonas Valanciunas - FD 6000 DK 5800 DFSTR 5300
Even with Dwight back on the court, opposing centers are still getting it done against the Rockets, especially on the glass. He has been consistent of late especially with his increased number of shots with Lowry out of the lineup. He's been averaging about 11 looks a game since Lowry went down. This is significant and should continues. Jonas isn't a dude that's been on my radar much this season, but tonight he rates out at near the top of the projection system.
Alex Len - FD 4400 DK 4600 DFSTR 4000
Struggled the other night against the Blazers and faces them again tonight. I'm pulling the trigger. Simply put, Len can crush these prices. The only number I'm looking at from last game are the minutes. He played 30, the most since coming back from injury. 30 minutes again verse Portland and he is the top points per dollar center play on the slate. Great chance to buy low on him, especially if he's off other people's radar.
Consider Rudy Gobert especially if the Timberwolves have no one to really play center. Update: Dieng is out tonight. Justin Hamilton could be in line for major minutes.
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View Comments
Thanks for your consistently excellent writeups and for posting them the night before, gives me something to chew on while I'm starting off the day. Much appreciated! Your comment on Tucker cracked me up.
Been playing Twolves players like crazy lately; with everyone hurt, the "survivors" have been getting consistently high minutes. Wondering if it's time to jump off that train though, they got a couple guys back yesterday who played limited minutes in their first games back but wondering if they'll start to play more going forward. Good luck with your plays tonight!