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JW Marriott TPC San Antonio(Oaks Course) - San Antonio, Texas
Par 72, 7435 Yards
This week the players make a stop in San Antonio, Texas for the Valero Texas Open. The TPC San Antonio Oaks Course was designed by Greg Norman and player consultant Sergio Garcia. It has been host to the Texas Open since 2010 so I will only be looking at the most recent 5 years history. The course has tree lined fairways with plenty of sand, thick rough, and natural environments which can get a player into some unplayable lies(Check out Kevin Na's worst day ever!). Scrambling will be a key stat I will look at this week as wind can keep the players from being as accurate as usual off the tee. I am really going to target good ball strikers that excel in Accuracy and GIR more than distance. Here are all the stats I am looking at this week:
Jordan Spieth - $14,000 (Vegas Odds – 10/1)
When deciding between the two favorites I flip-flopped between Spieth and Johnson as I like them both this week. It ultimately came down to course history and some key stats for Spieth. Dustin hasn't played this course since it has been here at TPC San Antonio and Spieth has played here 3 times(2014-10th, 2013-cut, 2012-T41). Current form for both top dogs is appealing but Spieth has only missed 1 cut this 2015 portion of the season(1st,17th,4th,7th,cut,7th). Four top 10's and a win so far. While his ball striking, driving accuracy and GIR aren't anything to write home about there are a few stats he is great in.
Matt Kuchar - $10,300 (Vegas Odds – 23/1)
Don't you just want to pick him because all he does is smile and finish near the top every time out? He has't missed a cut this season (33rd,23rd,30th,2nd,3rd), and has a great course history here playing it three times (T4, T22, T13). Kuchar's stats were more consistent across as a whole in 2014 but in 2015 you will see his SG stats are still high as well as scrambling. A strong pick as he prepares for the Masters.
Harris English - $9,200 (Vegas Odds – 34/1)
English comes into the Valero Texas Open outside the top 50 OWGR and needs a good finish to get a chance at Augusta in April so he should have a little extra motivation. I thought this was the case last week with a nice start to the week but faltered over the weekend. He has made the cut here on both trips since 2010 (T61 and T67) but I think he figures it out this time around for a top 10. His stats are what I am looking for so I am riding him again, especially in cash games.
Daniel Berger - $8000 (Vegas Odds – 51/1)
Berger is coming off a T13 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and missed the cut by 1 stroke the week before at the Valspar. He also has a 2nd(playoff loss) at the Honda, 10th at Pebble, 24th at Farmers, 10th at Waste Management, Cut at Humana and 13th at the Sony. Pretty good start for a rookie on tour. He always seems composed which is good when competing over a 4 day stretch. This is his first trip to TPC San Antonio but with his stats I think he can at least get in the top 25.
Daniel Summerhays - $7,900 (Vegas Odds – 56/1)
He is coming in with 5 straight made cuts(API-T55, Valspar-T10, Honda-T17, Northern Trust-T30, Pebble-T45). His course history is great here(T2, T7, T29, Cut). His stats also support a good week here.
Martin Flores - $6,300 (Vegas Odds – 151/1)
Flores comes in to the Valero with a great course history(T16, T10, T24, T51). He knows this course and plays well here every time he plays here. He is coming off a MC at valspar but before that had a T16 at Puerto Rico Open and T17 at the Honda. He has made 6/8 cuts this year and I think he keeps it rolling.
Aaron Baddeley - $6,000 (Vegas Odds – 151/1)
Baddeley also comes into the Valero with a nice course history(T67, T15, T3) since 2010. He hasn't played since the Northern Trust and started the year2/4 in cuts made but the time off and coming back to a place where he hasn't missed a cut should help turn things around.
Bo Van Pelt - $5,800 (Vegas Odds – 176/1)
My value play of the week was tough to pick. Not many guys I like this week under $6000. I chose Van Pelt as he has a good course history here since 2010(T26, T59, T28). It has been an awful start for Bo this season but had some nice stats in 2014 and if he can get back to playing at that level he should make the cut at a track he is comfortable at.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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