Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 3/22/15

Hey all! Huge, huge slate today. So I called in some reinforcements. Doug is tackling the the late slate, and I've grabbed the early slate. Let's get it on.

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By the by, on huge slates like these we just aren't going to be able to list every single guy at every single position. It's a great day to grab a free three day trial of our projection system, and see how it works. Best of luck! On to the picks.

Point Guards

Alexey Shved - FD 7200 DK 7000 DFSTR 3400
With the Knicks in full D-league mode, their unknown guards have climbed into daily fantasy basketball stardom. The Shvedder has been paying 5x points per dollar on this salary basically every time he starts, and has even turned into a more reliable option than Langston Galloway (who is, in his own right, a pretty decent pick). Unlike Linsanity of years past, what Shved is doing actually seems sustainable. He's handling the ball a ton, seeing the floor well, and his high point totals haven't been fueled by unsustainable shooting percentages. I just love him against a Toronto squad that's had a heck of a time against both of the positions that Shved fields.

Russell Westbrook - FD 13300 DK 13200 DFSTR 9400
It's bizarre to recommend any player on a 13.3k salary, but it's the world we live in. We honestly may never see a fantasy run like this ever again, and I, for one, am enjoying it. Westbrook is averaging better than 60 fantasy points per game in the month of March. SIXTY! This isn't exactly news or anything, but my God. And the scary thing is? His minutes seem to be trending upward. It's hard to imagine Dragic or D-Wade mustering the defensive fortitude to keep pace, and I suspect they'll more try to make it up on the offensive end. If you can find the salary cap room, I'd make a run at him.

Keep an eye on... the Kyle Lowry situation. He was active last game, but sat. If he's going to get his full run, he makes an interesting play. If he's going to sit, Greivis Vasquez is a fantastic play.

Also considered: Goran Dragic. Super solid play, and he's been producing like crazy recently.

Shooting Guards

Dion Waiters - FD 4700 DK 4700 DFSTR 4000
We gave you Waiters as the must play of the day the last time he played, and all he did was go out and pay 8x points per dollar on this salary for you. What's changed? He's just starting now. If he's going to play 36 minutes per game, he'll basically be recommended independent of his match-up until his price ticks upward. Miami's fairly tough on defense against opposing shooting guards, but I recommend ignoring the match-up and play him everywhere.

DeMar DeRozan - FD 7500 DK 7700 DFSTR 6900
For a position that's usually pretty shallow, you actually have some super solid options in the early slate today. More of a cash game play, DeRozan has not dipped below paying 4x points per dollar since he's moved into this 37 minute role, but he rarely crests over 5x as well. It's tempting to call this a risk, since the Raps will probably crush the Knicks, but DeRozan's biggest game of the month was a 55 fantasy point performance against the similarly hapless 76ers. And for what they've done on offense, Shved and Galloway just aren't defensive forces. I think DeRozan is a great cash game play, if an uninspiring big tournament play.

Also considered: Giannis! Been crushing it recently, but he did just come off a 50 minute game. Still, Cleveland's defense has allowed 4% more points and 17% more assists to opposing two guards this season (and that's gotten worse since JR Smith has taken the role), making him a great play in my book.

For punts and separation: Anthony Morrow? Guy grabbed 30 minutes last game, and 28 the game before that.

Small Forwards

Matt Barnes - FD 5100 DK 4600 DFSTR 3800
Small Forward is a total mess for this early slate, which is why I'm recommending a sort of lousy player coming off an injury. Our projection system would have you believe that Barnes' performance should stay steady if the minutes are there, and I'm inclined to agree. The bigger consideration is the return of Blake, but Barnes showed that he's not exactly exiting stage left just because the big man is back. His 36 minutes and 28 fantasy points against Houston would have been more than enough to make owners happy on this price. New Orleans has allowed 7% more points to opposing small forwards than league average this season, and Barnes should at least get his shots here.

Terrence Ross - FD 3500 DK 3400 DFSTR 3500
Yup. Don't avert your eyes. Ross is back in the starting lineup, and has played an average of 30 minutes in his last two games. It wasn't pretty - he scored 15 fantasy points in each. But here's my case. First of all, the Knicks. Second of all, this is a great chance to escape the position relatively safely and for very cheap. I think it's tough to make a case for playing some of the other big money guys besides Westbrook tonight, and playing Ross will afford you the possibility of grabbing Westbrook without any difficulty. And Ross has put up some terrific games on this price this season. If he's back in the starting lineup, this looks like a high floor, high ceiling play. But the floor is more likely than the ceiling, to be sure.

Also considered: Kawhi Leonard. Should be a close game, which means he'll probably tap into the higher end of his normal minutes. If he gets up into the high 30s, he could be a fantastic play in all formats.

Power Forwards

Tristan Thompson - FD 4300 DK 3800 DFSTR 4500
With Kevin Love scheduled for a day of rest, Thompson provides us with a much needed reprieve at an otherwise disgusting position. Thompson has averaged 12 and 10 with a block and half a steal as a starter this season, which is more than enough production for a $4,300 salary on FanDuel. Our projection system thinks he's the play of the day today, and I'll take him in all game formats on Sunday.

Ersan Ilyasova - FD 5700 DK 5600 DFSTR 4300
Ilyasova! My man has averaged 34 minutes per game in his last 5, and has made the most of the situation. He's paid 5x points per dollar in 4 of his last 5 games, and he should enjoy a nice match-up with Cleveland's depleted front-court. And it is looking totally sustainable. He's been crashing the boards, which raises his floor, and he's been bombing threes, which raises his ceiling. He took NINE of them against the Pelicans. In a game where the Bucks might have difficulty keeping pace, Ilyasova could have huge opportunity to put up a monster, and makes a fine stack pair with Thompson.

Also considered: Blake Griffin. He's yet to really break out since returning, but this could absolutely be the game if he faces off against a gimpy Anthony Davis or the useless menagerie of Pels' back-up big men.

Keep an eye on Anthony Davis. I don't think you can play him if he does go, but if he doesn't it opens up some interesting possibilities with Alexis Ajinca.

Center

Steven Adams - FD 5500 DK 5500 DFSTR 4000
The conversation starts and stops with Adams if Kanter is out again. The price is just not commensurate with the production if Adams is going to be the only viable center on the team. Whiteside is a fierce interior defender, but a lot of his defensive reputation is wrapped up in help defense, not necessarily squaring off when his opponent has his back to the basket. And really, paying $5,500 for a guy who's going to be under the basket grabbing rebounds for 36+ minutes is just too good a deal to pass up.

Zaza Pachulia - FD 5800 DK 4700 DFSTR 4000
On the off chance that none of the punt guys come through today, Pachulia actually makes a totally reasonable play. I recommended him last night, though I never could have seen his 18 offensive rebound game coming. This still doesn't feel like the safest play ever given how the Bucks tend to jerk guys around, but as I pick through the Bucks' last few games, I'd estimate he'll pull something like 30 minutes. If he does, our projection system thinks he'll have a fine game against a Cleveland team that's allowed 4% more points than league average to opposing centers this season.

Also considered: Alexis Ajinca. If Davis is out, he'll rival for Adams the top play going.

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