Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 3/21/15

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Point Guards

Reggie Jackson - FD 7400 DK 6900 DFSTR 5200
Back to back fantastic games for Jackson and three 10 assist games in his last four have me feeling like Jackson has really found his role with the Pistons. And while he's looked great recently, the great thing here is the match-up. The Bulls' point guard defense has predictably fallen off since Aaron Brooks has taken the reins, and they have allowed 5% more points and 5% more rebounds than league average to opposing point guards, and our projection system thinks it's a right place/right time sort of situation.

Patrick Beverley - FD 4700 DK 4500 DFSTR 4200
The price has coasted down on Beverley for a while now, but he actually hasn't been terrible outside of a couple of insanely bad shooting nights. And with Jones missing a few games, indicators are that all of the Rockets' starters will be playing increased minutes to compensate. Beverley played 37 minutes his last time out, and while he is still relatively unlikely to light the world on fire, playing increased minutes will simply mean greater production. Phoenix has allowed slightly above average offensive totals to opposing point guards this season to go with allowing 11% more steals, so this could be a great game to grab Beverley at a very affordable price.

George Hill - FD 6400 DK 6600 DFSTR 5600
I've been recommending Hill pretty steadily for the entire month of March, and for the most part, it's gone swimmingly. For whatever reason, he doesn't get quite the same attention as some other mid-tier point guards, but that's only to our benefit. As of this writing he had something of an uninspiring first quarter against the Cavs, and I'm modestly wary of the little back issue that cropped up last Wednesday, but the price is still very reasonable here. Brooklyn has allowed 7% more rebounds and 9% more assists than league average to opposing point guards this season (though they have depressed scoring), so I think Hill makes a fine play once again.

 

Shooting Guards

James Harden - FD 11000 DK 11200 DFSTR 9200
Harden put up some ridiculous usage numbers when Jones went down on Wednesday - basically handling the ball the entire game, and putting up 50 points and 10 boards against the hapless Nuggets. The bad news for Phoenix is here is that they're similarly bad at defending opposing shooting guards, allowing an embarrassing 8% more scoring and 9% more rebounding to opposing shooting guards this season. With Jones set to miss this one as well, I'll do just about everything I can to get Harden into my cash game lineups and my big tournament squads.

Tony Snell - FD 4200 DK 4500 DFSTR 3000
If you're looking for a high floor/high ceiling play, Snell's gotta be your man. This is all shot if Butler returns, of course, but I'm skeptical that they'll return him for a game that should be something of a cake-walk. Snell hasn't been dominant even in the 37+ minutes he's been playing, but he has flirted with 6x points per dollar on a few occasions with this increased playing time, which is more than you're going to get from any other guy at the position tonight. Detroit's basically a league average defensive squad against his position, so Snell looks to be a fairly safe bet for 20-25 fantasy points.

Eric Bledsoe - FD 8300 DK 8100 DFSTR 7000
If you can't manage to get Harden in your lineup, you may want to consider spending a bit less on Eric Bledsoe. While he hasn't consistently be paying this price recently, it's going to be awfully tough for Harden to keep pace with him on the defensive end while shouldering the entirety of the offensive load. Randy Foye put up 23 points on 9 of 19 shooting in the Rockets' last game, and Bledsoe is obviously a superior talent to Foye. It doesn't feel nearly as safe as the above guys, but I could see him replicating the near triple-double performance he had against the Knicks if his shot is falling.

Also considered: Not for the faint of heart, but Afflalo is still getting a ton of minutes in Portland, though he is mysteriously not producing in them.

 

 

Small Forwards

Trevor Ariza - FD 5900 DK 6300 DFSTR 4900
You may be sensing a theme, here. The Rockets just make great plays across the board in a game that rates to be both hotly contested and fast paced. The Suns have allowed 8% more scoring and 8% more rebounds to opposing small forwards this season, and Ariza had already put up 30 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games. I'll go ahead and call him a must play in all formats.

P.J. Tucker - FD 5400 DK 5500 DFSTR 4400
Let's be clear, it's a ROUGH night for small forwards. That said, I actually really like this PJ Tucker play tonight. The Rockets will be playing short handed, which should be good for all of the guys on the Suns offense. And a weird thing about Tucker - his minutes have jumped 20% in the month of March - and 37 minutes per game is a lot for a guy who's priced under $6,000 on FanDuel. While he hasn't been lighting it up necessarily, his 12/8/2 average has been enough to pay ~4.5x points per dollar on a nightly basis, which is very solid for such a shallow position on a shallow slate. I'm going to hold my nose and go for it.

Also considered: Well, kind of no one. I'll play the above two guys. But I am writing this before the Golden State game (where Justin Holiday might play more minutes than I expect), and there are some other guys who could produce with enough opportunity. Mike Dunleavy and Draymond Green, for instance, could put up great numbers - but I have enough concerns about both of them that I'll take the safety of Tucker and Ariza.

 

Power Forwards

Marcus Morris - FD 5200 DK 5300 DFSTR 3800
With no timetable established for Brandon Knight's return, it looks like Marcus Morris is going to get all the run he can handle. He's averaged better than 25 fantasy points per game in his increased role in these last four games, and I see no reason why that wouldn't continue against the Rockets. It should be a close game, and if it is, Morris should be about the safest play at the position against a depleted Rockets front-court.

Donatas Motiejunas - FD 5600 DK 5600 DFSTR 4900
Yep, I'll probably be playing four Rockets tonight. Motiejunas is nearly guaranteed to play increased minutes against the Suns with Jones out, and he paid nearly 5x on this price on terrible shooting against the Nuggets in his last outing. Phoenix has allowed 5% more points to opposing centers than league average, and since Donatas will be lining up at the five, I expect him to take full advantage.

Thaddeus Young - FD 5800 DK 6000 DFSTR 6000
Here's what we wrote about Young last night:

Like a lot of players listed tonight, Young has been great on these prices when his team is not busy getting blown out. Which happens, because you know, they're the Nets. But! This game against Milwaukee shows some promise. The Bucks have only won two games in March, and a blow-out seems like a pretty unlikely outcome. If it stays close, Young will likely play his 35 or so minutes, and put up better than 30 fantasy points, making him an excellent cash game play for today.

Through three quarters so far, this hasn't come to fruition. But the minutes and the shots have been there, so it's really just some statistical blippery (no steals, 1 board, 1 assist) that's disappointed Young's owners. Indiana has been tough on Power Forwards this season, but Young should get his minutes, and our projection system still likes him if he does.

Keep your ear to the ground on Taj Gibson's minutes. If he comes back to 30+ minutes, he'll be the play of the day at the position on that night. If Gibson's going to continue in a limited role, however, I like Nikola Mirotic quite a bit. Though I wouldn't play either if the situation remained uncertain.

 

Center

Brandan Wright - FD 5600 DK 5000 DFSTR 3800
Wow, it's been super fun watching Wright be unleashed for 35+ minutes a game recently. With Alex Len out, Wright has been given the opportunity to show that he's more than a fierce pick and roll partner. He's scoring, crashing the boards, and his ridiculous 7 blocks against New Orleans show that he can get it done on the defensive end as well. Houston's struggled a great deal against opposing centers since Dwight went down, and Wright is just not a good match-up athleticism-wise for Motiejunas. I'm expecting a monster game, and won't consider playing anyone else.

Brook Lopez - FD 6900 DK 6400 DFSTR 6400
Okay, I wouldn't slam you if you wanted to make a little separation play and go with Brook Lopez instead. We gave you Lopez last night, and as of this writing he's put up 25/14 with 4 blocks. In three quarters. The playing time and usage are clearly secure at this point, and for all of Hibbert's defensive reputation, Indiana has basically been league average against opposing centers this season. Lopez's price is simply too low for his current opportunity, and if his opportunity stays the same, his price will climb by 10% in short order.

That's it. It'd be disingenuous to recommend any other big men tonight. Just play one of these two guys, unless some punt play comes along that you just can't resist. Best of luck, and feel free to tweet us @dailyfantasysr to mock our picks, or just say hi 🙂
 

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