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Innisbrook Resort(Copperhead Course)
Par 71, 7340 Yards
This week the PGA Tour makes a stop at the Copperhead Course for the Valspar Championship. Last week the players had to face the Bear Trap at Trump National Doral and this week it is the Snake Pit (16,17,18). The Snake Pit is ranked top 5 hardest closing 3 hole stretch on tour. The course is tree-lined with a few holes where water comes into play making it an unusual Florida course. The main defense the course uses is the smaller fairways and thick roughs. When I looked back at previous years I noticed the top guys only hit average fairways but well above average in GIR and Scrambling. Another thing I have noticed in my spreadsheet when it comes to Vegas Odds this week is Vegas is really favoring guys in top of the Strokes Gained: Tee to Green stat more than any other. There has been efficient, accurate golfers mixed in with some bombers near the top last few years here. The Copperhead course has been used in every Valspar Championship so there is a lot of course history to go off of. I will again be looking at course history, recent form, and the following stats to make my picks for this week.
Luke Donald - $9900 (Vegas Odds – 29/1)
My first pick this week is Luke Donald who doesn't exactly have the greatest stats to back up being my top pick. He is average for SG: Tee to Green and an above average scrambler. The reason for the pick is his course history. Donald has not missed a cut here and hasn't finished outside the Top 20 in his last 4 attempts. He even won the event in 2012. He finished T49 last week at Doral on a tough course and a T7 the week before that. Roll with Donald this week with a price below $10,000 and you will be able to build a strong lineup around him.
Jim Furyk - $10,900 (Vegas Odds – 21/1)
Next on my list is Jim Furyk, who is also a previous winner at this event. Besides the win his track history is real good(2014-T20 2013-T7 2012-T2 2011-T13 2010-WIN). He has made 6/7 cuts here. Furyk also has some great stats to back up his price.
Harris English - $9100 (Vegas Odds – 34/1)
I chose English as my 3rd choice in Tier 1 due to a few reasons. First, his course history isn't too bad(2014-T38 2013-T7 2012-cut). English missed his first cut of 2015 at the Honda but before that had a nice run(Northern Trust-T30, Farmers-T2, Phoenix Open-T40, Humana-T30, Sony-T3). These are not the main factors in choosing Harris this week. It is his stats that make him a top play for me.
Daniel Berger - $8400 (Vegas Odds – 46/1)
First up in Tier 2 is rookie sensation Daniel Berger. Coming off a playoff loss 2 weeks ago is only more proof that this kid is for real. He always seems to have control of his emotions and has the stats and recent form to back up the price. His last 4 starts have been awesome(Honda-2nd, Pebble-T10, Farmers-T24, Phoenix-T10). His stats have also been borderline elite to start the year on tour.
Russell Knox - $7900 (Vegas Odds – 51/1)
Knox has started out 2015 up and down. He has missed cuts at the Farmers and Humana but has also finished T3 at the Honda, T15 at the Phoenix Open, and T13 at the Sony Open. When he makes the cut he finishes inside the top 20. PERIOD. He also has some good stats to back up the pick.
Shawn Stefani - $6300 (Vegas Odds – 101/1)
Stefani was the very first golfer I ever wrote about. I wrote about him because I liked what he brought to the table week after week. Besides his missed cut at the Honda he finished Northern Trust with a T56, T30 at the Phoenix Open, T15 at the Humana and a T6 at the Sony. He is a nice value at the price and a strong play for cash games. His stats are nothing to shy away from either.
Again this week I am going to try and pick out 2 guys in the scrub range that will make the cut. These plays fit nicely into a GPP lineup if you are trying to fit some of the top names in.
Jonathan Byrd - $5700 (Vegas Odds – 126/1)
When I started researching for this tournament last weekend I came across Byrd and his 11/11 cuts made at this tournament with some nice finishes(2014-T32 2012-73rd 2011-T20 2010-T8 2009-T12). Before I started updating stats into my spreadsheet I said to myself "I hop ehe has some nice stats and is in the scrub range of pricing". I then started filling out spreadsheet with new stats to find he has some stats that fit his game to this course to back up the 11/11. Then pricing was released and I couldnt refuse picking him. I hope he is low owned this week.
Justin Hicks - $3400 (Vegas Odds – 401/1)
Ok, now for the long shot, low ownership, outside the box, scrub value of the week! Yes, I dipped my toes into the bottom of the barrel this week to find Hicks. Not only has he made both cuts here but finished T32 last year and T27 the year before. At this price all you are looking for is a cut made but if he provides you a Top 30 finish again he provides tremendous value. He also has 2 key stats which back up why he has finished strong at this course.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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Correction. The Bear Trap was two weeks ago at PGA National. I messed up and wrote Doeal by mistake.
Doral*