PGA Daily Fantasy Picks
WGC Cadillic Championship

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WGC Cadillic Championship

Trump National Doral
Par 72, 7481 Yards

This week’s tournament is a World Golf Championship event which features no cut. This event has been played at Trump National Doral since 2007 and up until last year’s tournament the average score was around -17. Following Tiger Woods win in 2013 the course was re designed by Gil Hanse, who is designing the course for the 2016 Olympics. The course was lengthened, especially the Par 5 1st hole, which was one of the tour’s easiest Par 5’s. The other big change made to the course was the addition of strategic water placement. The old design seen water come into play on 6 holes where as the new design sees water on 10 holes. The wind at Doral is no longer the only defense for the course. The course has four Par 5’s, Four Par 3’s, and 10 Par 4’s. The early weather forecast is showing some wind, but not like this past week. There is chance of rain for Saturday but for the most part it looks to be nice weather for the event.

For this week’s picks I have split all the golfers into 3 tiers. I will provide analysis on three Tier 1 golfers, three Tier 2 Golfers and two Tier 3 golfers.

I will be looking closely at current form this week as this will be a tough test for struggling players to turn it around. Due to the course re design I will be looking mostly at 2014 results for course history but will also look back to 2007 to see who plays well at Doral. The stats I am crunching this week are:

• Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained:Tee to Green
• Strokes Gained:Putting
• Greens in Regulation
• Par 4 Scoring Average
• Par 5 Scoring Average

Tier 1 Targets (DK Price $8000-MAX)

Bubba Watson - $12,400 (Vegas Odds – 15/1)
Both years Bubba Watson won the Masters at Augusta he finished 2nd at this tournament. He also sandwiched a T18 in between in 2013. Bubba has started this year very strong with three top 15’s(Northern Trust-T14, Phoenix Open-T2, Tournament of Champions-10). When you combine his course history, current form and the following stats, Bubba becomes a top pick for this week and should have a chance to win.

• Driving Distance - 2014(1) 2015(14)
• SG:Tee to Green - 2014(7) 2015(9)
• SG:Putting - 2014(110) 2015(26)
• Greens in Reg - 2014(24) 2015(146)
• Par 4 Scor Avg - 2014(6) 2015(41)
• Par 5 Scor Avg - 2014(10) 2015(1)

Dustin Johnson - $11,300 (Vegas Odds – 19/1)
Dustin finished this tournament T4 last year at Even Par. Before the course redesign he also played well here(2013-T12, 2012-T35, 2011-2). Before a missed cut last week he had a 2nd at the Northern Trust Open and a T4 at Pebble. I think Dustin bounces back this week and contends again. He hasn't had back to back missed cuts since Feb. 2013. He also has stats that fit what I am looking for this week.

• Driving Distance - 2014(2) 2015(1)
• SG:Tee to Green - 2014(9) 2015(3)
• SG:Putting - 2014(83) 2015(93)
• Greens in Reg - 2014(21) 2015(137)
• Par 4 Scor Avg - 2014(24) 2015(19)
• Par 5 Scor Avg - 2014(4) 2015(30)

Matt Kuchar - $8700 (Vegas Odds - 29/1)
Kuchar finished T13 here last year and before the redesign played very well (2013-T35, 2012-T8, 2011-2, 2010-T3). He has started the 2015 portion of the season 4/4 in cuts made with two top 5's. Kuchar is one of the most consistent players on Tour and has the stats to prove it. His weakness is his driving distance but he more than makes up with for it in ALL the other areas.

• Driving Distance - 2014(136) 2015(145)
• SG:Tee to Green - 2014(12) 2015(32)
• SG:Putting - 2014(15) 2015(63)
• Greens in Reg - 2014(40) 2015(73)
• Par 4 Scor Avg - 2014(3) 2015(2)
• Par 5 Scor Avg - 2014(52) 2015(10)

Tier 2 Targets (DK Price $6000-$7900)

Bill Haas - $7300 (Vegas Odds – 51/1)
Haas matched his career best finish at this tournament last year with a T6. So far this year Haas has been up and down. He started his 2015 season with a win at the Humana Challenge and then followed that up with a 76th at the phoenix Open, T19 at the Farmers and missed the cut at the Northern Trust Open.

• Driving Distance - 2014(73) 2015(139)
• SG:Tee to Green - 2014(17) 2015(102)
• SG:Putting - 2014(68) 2015(149)
• Greens in Reg - 2014(15) 20159142)
• Par 4 Scor Avg - 2014(24) 2015(95)
• Par 5 Scor Avg - 2014(28) 2015(78)

Jason Dufner - $7000 (Vegas Odds – 67/1)
Dufner also had a nice finish here last year with a T9 and before that put up some nice finishes here as well(2013-T12, 2012-T29, 2010-T18). After starting his 2015 year with two missed cuts he finished last weekends Honda Classic with a solid Even Par T17. He lacks a deep drive but makes up with it in other areas and at $7000 he should be able to pay off his price with a top 20.

• Driving Distance - 2014(122) 2015(173)
• SG:Tee to Green - 2014(13) 2015(24)
• SG:Putting - 2014(167) 2015(138)
• Greens in Reg - 2014(59) 2015(94)
• Par 4 Scor Avg - 2014(118) 2015(240)
• Par 5 Scor Avg - 2014(22) 2015(155)

Hunter Mahan - $6600 (Vegas Odds - 51/1)
Before looking at any course history or stats I seen his price and instantly thought "mega value". I then look at course history(2014-T9, 2013-T25, 2012-T24, 2011-9). Then when I factor in that Hunter is one of the most consistent golfers on tour with some great stats I have to make him one of my favorite picks for the price this week.

• Driving Distance - 2014(45) 2015 (86)
• SG:Tee to Green - 2014(75) 2015(57)
• SG:Putting - 2014(57) 2015(16)
• Greens in Reg - 2014(46) 2015(60)
• Par 4 Scor Avg - 2014(41) 2015(3)
• Par 5 Scor Avg - 2014(98) 2015(63)

Tier 3 Targets (DK Price $MIN-5900)

Joost Luiten - $5900 (Vegas Odds – 81/1)
Wanted to pick Joost last week but couldn't pull the trigger. I dug more into him this week and I am making him my first Tier 3 value pick. He finished T11 in his first start in the US in 2015 last week at the Honda and has a played this event once which was last year after the re design and finished T13. I also found some European Tour stats which help fit him to this course.

• Driving Distance - 2014(91) 2015 (75)
• Greens in Reg - 2014(49) 2015(65)

Stephen Gallacher - $5700 (Vegas Odds – 101/1)
My second Tier 3 value pick is another European Tour regular who played this event last year and finished with a T6. He made the cut and finished T41 at the Honda Classic last weekend and has some excellent European Tour stats when it comes to Driving Distance and GIR.

• Driving Distance - 2014(22) 2015(37)
• Greens in Reg - 2014(25) 2015(40)

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.

 

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