Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 2/22/15

NBA! Post trade deadline. This is hard. But fun! Enjoy.

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Point Guards

The Cheap
Jerryd Bayless - FD 4400 DK 4400 DFSTR 3800
Isaiah Canaan - FD 3500 DK 3000 DFSTR 3000
With MCW still ailing, Bayless grabbed 39 minutes, and put up 11/7/8 against the Nuggets. While the Hawks are considerably tougher on defense, this is simply a case of wrong-price-itis. If he's going to play mid-thirties minutes, he's a must start at these prices against any and all opponents. If you're not playing the early slate, Canaan is basically the same guy for the late slate. He can score by the bucket, and the Sixers just started Tim Frazier(!) in an NBA game. It's not totally clear as of this writing that he'll play, but if he does, he'll be as good a play as Bayless.

Russell Westbrook - FD 11000 DK 10600 DFSTR 8300
Westbrook followed up his All-Star Game MVP performance with a 34/10 with 2 steals, and another 53 fantasy point performance. As of this writing, he's pretty much on track for a similar type of game against the Hornets. While Denver is actually above average at defending opposing PGs, the usage bump Westbrook should see if Durant is out again is the real seller here. He's seeing the floor fantastically, and shooting at a frenetic place. Big money play of the day if Durant is out, and a plenty fine play even if KD does play.

Mo Williams - FD 5400 DK 4800 DFSTR 4900
Mo has replaced Brian Roberts as the starting PG in Charlotte, and his performance against the Thunder has B-rob looking like a distant memory. He's got 23/4/10 through 3 quarters, and has played a staggering 31 minutes. Dallas has allowed 6% more scoring than league average to opposing PGs this season, only sweetening the deal. Is there blow-out risk here? Sure. But Mo's another simple case of wrong price for the wrong guy. Terrific play in all formats.

Also considered: Isaiah Thomas if he's ready, or Marcus Smart otherwise. Also - Reggie Jackson becomes a must play if he's actually starting.

Shooting Guards

Evan Fournier - FD 4100 DK 4200 DFSTR 4100
With Tobias Harris out, it looks like Fournier's minutes are secure. Another wrong price situation. While he can be susceptible to off-games against tough defensive units, the Magic are playing what's left of the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers have allowed a staggering 13% more fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season, and that was before they managed to make themselves even worse by dealing their best wing defender - KJ McDaniels. Unless something changes, Fournier is a fantastic play.

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 6600 DK 7400 DFSTR 5200
Foul trouble and an off-shooting night plagued our mutual friend Giannis in his first Brandon Knightless game, but I actually think we're poised to see yet another step forward in his game with a pass-first point guard taking the reins. Knight is a fine player, but MCW has simply tallied better assist totals than Knight recently. Atlanta has also had a tough time against SGs this season, giving up 7% more points, 7% more rebounds, and 3% more assists than league average to opposing 2s this season. I think this could be a nice bounce-back for Giannis before we see a gradual price increase.

Victor Oladipo - FD 6900 DK 6900 DFSTR 6200
While he's not priced as attractively as Fournier, the upside production-wise is considerably higher. He hasn't had a transcendent game in a while, but he has a steady diet of 4.5x-5x performances in his last 10 games, and this will be his best match-up of the bunch. There's also a pleasant usage trend bubbling up with Harris out - he only had 4 games with more than the 18 shots he's taken in his last 2 of 3 games prior to Harris going down. Another of those games was when Harris was coming off the bench, and the other two were games Harris missed. Ya dig it?

Also considered: Kyle Korver

Also considered: Randy Foye is intriguing on 25 minutes per game. He can put up shots in a hurry. Interesting guy to take a look at if you want a pure punt/separation play.

Note - if Spencer Dinwiddie is starting for Reggie Jackson again, he's a fantastic play.
 

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Small Forwards

Danilo Gallinari - FD 3800 DK 4400 DFSTR 3700
With Afflalo gone, Gallo is looking like the guy. I don't think he'll get 36 minutes per game with how injury prone he can be, but you have to consider the run he got against the Bucks as VERY encouraging. Our projection system loves him on a conservative 27 minutes per game, which means that even if Lawson rears his ugly head and moves some of the wing minutes away from the primary benefactors (Gallo, and Nelson), Gallinari remains a very attractive play. He'll also be a nice size mismatch against whoever the Thunder throw at him.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute - FD 5000 DK 4500 DFSTR
Luuuuuuuc! 32 minutes paying 6x in his first game after the ASB, and his playing time was already secure, even before the McDaniels trade. You're getting 32+ minutes from a guy who rates to get increased usage with some prominent faces gone, and he was already paying 4.5x on this price with regularity. The elephant in the room will be that Philly will be a risk to be blown out in every single game going forward, but they already were, and Mbah a Moute was still getting his minutes. It helps him here that the Magic have a very weird situation in their wing rotations with Harris out. A great play all around on a weird day for SFs.

Robert Covington - FD 6300 DK 6200 DFSTR 5800
A similar play to Mbah a Moute, but a little more risk due to a higher price and occasionally erratic performance. But still - it really is a hell of a day to choose a fantasy small forward, so our projection thinks you can still lock in a little bit of safety by going with Covington. He was on a pretty nice roll before laying an egg against the Pacers, so I think you could do a lot worse than taking him against the Magic's precisely league-average small forward defense.

Also considered: Paul Pierce. The price has gone too far.
 

Power Forwards

Brandon Bass - FD 4800 DK 5200 DFSTR 4600
With Sullinger and Olynyk out, the Celtics don't have a lot of other options down low. Bass compiled 30+ fantasy points on 37 minutes against the Kings. And tonight? He'll face the Lakers, who have given up 5% more scoring to power forwards than league average, and are one of the select group that Boston should be able to hang with. Expect this price to jump by 10% at least while he has this sort of opportunity.

Serge Ibaka - FD 7100 DK 6600 DFSTR 6100
Ibaka put up his first 20/20 line two games ago, and turned in a fine encore performance against the Bobcats, putting up 14/12 with 3 blocks to go with it. The blocks and boards are finally climbing back to where everyone thought they would be this season, and the arrival of Kanter - his first ever decent offensive front-court partner - should give him a little bit more space to operate. Denver is slightly worse than league average against opposing power forwards, including allowing a staggering 25% more blocks than league average to the position. It's a relatively tough night to pick decent power forwards, and Ibaka looks like the safest of the bunch in the mid-tier price range.

Jerami Grant - FD 3800 DK 3400 DFSTR 3000
An interesting punt option. He played 27 minutes off of the bench against Indiana and put up better than a fantasy point a minute in that time. Rumors out of Philadelphia are that the decision to trade away KJ McDaniels relied somewhat on the organization's faith in Grant, and if he's going to play better than 25 minutes per game, he'll be a very solid value at these basement level prices.

Also considered: Greg Monroe. Less than ideal match-up against the Wiz, but the minutes should be there, and if you just save up a ton elsewhere I can see this being a decent option. For me, though? I'll take one of the first two guys on this list instead. Millsap also looks like a reasonably safe option.

Also also considered: Jason Smith in the early games. Guaranteed blow-out, but there's significant upside here if he gets his full minutes.

Center

Tyler Zeller - FD 4800 DK 4900 DFSTR 4200
In his first game in this newly rediscovered role, Zeller put up better than 7x on these prices. He more than held his own in a starting role earlier this season, and with Sullinger and Olynyk out, Zeller's a lot like Bass. Who else are the Celtics going to play? And it's also worth noting that his fantastic performance against the Kings was against Boogie Cousins, a better than league average defender. And now? He'll be up against the hapless Lakers. This price will jump nearly 10% very soon, and has room for more after that.

Enes Kanter - FD 5900 DK 5200 DFSTR 5400
Minutes security!! Our projection system doesn't totally know what to make of Kanter's change of scenery, but you have to love that Rudy Beastman Gobert isn't breathing down his neck every game. While the Thunder are a totally different animal when it comes to big-usage players, Kanter getting 30+ minutes of crashing the boards should provide him a high enough floor to justify these prices (and then some) going forward. And it just so happens that Denver is worst at defending what Kanter does best - score. They've allowed 12% more points to opposing centers this season.

Jusuf Nurkic - FD 5600 DK 5200 DFSTR 4400
Well, you could never call Nurkic safe, but when it comes to upside on a points per dollar basis? He tops my list at the position. He logged his second 30+ minute game of the season against the Bucks, and responded with a 5 category monster performance, and 42 fantasy points. This on the heels of being called the only "true untouchable" in Denver. If this is what the future holds for Nurkic, this price is a joke. If he's going to get in foul trouble and generally get jerked around, he'll screw you here. But Kanter is not the defender that Adams or Perkins were, so there's probably a higher floor here than I might be giving credit for.

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