PGA Daily Fantasy Picks
Northern Trust Open

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In looking back at last week, I've made some adjustments to my projections going forward that will incorporate some larger sample sizes. I have added a variety of additional stat rankings to my spreadsheet this week to help find the best players for this course. I am thrilled to see the multi-course events and pro-am events come to a close. Let the best part of the PGA season begin and like Bill Belichick would say “We are on to the Northern Trust.”

Northern Trust Open

Course

Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, California – 7349 Yards, Par 71

This week the PGA makes its last stop on the West Coast before heading to Florida. Riviera Country Club has been a part of the PGA tour since 1926 when it was the LA Open. The course is a challenging one with smaller greens and some longer par 5’s. When analyzing past leaderboards of this tournament you will notice long hitters who hit greens frequent the leaderboard. Those players who aren’t the longest drivers are good scramblers and putters. To select my targets for this week I will be looking at Recent Form, Course History, and these key stats:

• Driving Distance
• GIR
• Proximity to Hole
• Par 5 Performance
• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting

Tier 1 Targets (DK Price $9000-Max)

Tier 1 is my favorite tier for this tournament. I like the bombers at the top in DJ and Bubba but both have been inconsistent here so I will reserve them for GPP’s. I also like Garcia and Schwartzel in their first trips to the USA this season. The two guys I decided to write about this week both have good track records here, bomb their drivers, hit greens and can putt.

Jimmy Walker - $12300 (Vegas Odds – 17/1)
I had other guys pegged as my top pick this week but in seeing Walker’s price drop over $5000 from the previous week has me slotting him as my #1. Jimmy is about as consistent as you can get on tour. He finished 21^st last week at Pebble, which was his worst finish so far this year after posting 3 straight top 10’s to start the year. Jimmy has a nice course history here as well (20^th-2014, 16^th-2013, and a pair of 4^th place finishes in 2012 and 2011). As for Walker’s stats, he is top 50 in all 6 stats this year:

Driving Distance - 2014(19) 2015(23)
GIR – 2014(28) 2015(30)
Proximity – 2014(124) 2015(49)
Par 5 Perf – 2014(9) 2015(4)
SG: Tee to Green – 2014(28) 2015(12)
SG: Putting – 2014(11) 2015(15)

Harris English - $9000 (Vegas Odds – 34/1)
I had a few other guys in mind for my second pick in Tier 1 who had more of a course history than Harris but none was highly ranked across the 6 stat categories. Harris has also been on a pretty good run so far this year with a 2^nd place finish at the Farmers, T40 at Waste Management, T30 at Humana Challenge and T3 at the Sony Open. Harris has played here twice and finished T10 here last year and T51 in 2013. His stats speak for themselves.

Driving Distance – 2014(26) 2015(28)
GIR – 2014(17) 2015(40)
Proximity – 2014(62) 2015(86)
Par 5 Performance – 2014(18) 2015(18)
SG: Tee to Green – 2014(26) 2015(37)
SG: Putting – 2014(105) 2015(61)

Tier 2 Targets (DK Price $7000-$8500)

Tier 2 has a lot of guys that are fairly similar in having 2 or 3 stat categories that are highly ranked but either A. don’t have good track records here or B. Not in good form. I ended up finding one guy in great form on European Tour with good stats and another with good history, good form, and good stats in USA.

Bernd Wiesberger - $7800 (Vegas Odds – 56/1)
I am making this pick only seeing him play a few times so far this year on the European Tour but he has been nothing short spectacular across the sea. He has 4 straight top 6 finishes. He is making his first trip to USA so he has no stats for the PGA Tour but I dug up his current stats for this season on Euro Tour.

Driving Distance – 2014(48^th-292 yds) 2015(54^th-292 yds)
GIR – 2014(11^th-73%) 2015(11^th-78%)
Putts per Round – 2014(159^th-30.5) 2015(28^th-28.7)
Scrambling – 2014(32^nd) 2015(6^th)

Brendan Steele - $7000 (Vegas Odds – 76/1)
Steele fits all the criteria I am looking for this week. First off his price is at the bottom of my second tier. He hasn’t missed a cut so far this season (T45-Farmers, T26-Waste Management, T2-Humana). Steele has improved his finish each of the last 3 years at this event (10^th-2014, 46^th-2013, 69^th-2012). Combine his current form and course history with these stats and you have a solid pick at a lower price.

Driving Distance – 2014(28) 2015(10)
GIR – 2014(53) 2015(74)
Proximity – 2014(73) 2015(121)
Par 5 Performance – 2014(28) 2015(50)
SG: Tee to Green – 2014(59) 2015(32)
SG: Putting – 2014(72) 2015(112)

Tier 3 Targets (DK Price $5500-$7000)

There seems to be some value in Tier 3 this week. Very few of the players have a combination of stats, course history, and current form so I put together my 2 picks in different ways.

Shawn Stefani - $6800 (Vegas Odds – 91/1)
This is my second time picking Stefani this year. He is a consistent player who has not missed a cut yet this season and has some good finishes as well (T30-Waste Management, T15-Humana, T6-Sony Open) His price seems low but he has also never played the Northern Trust and this is where the risk lies with him. His stats are fantastic and 5/6 categories he is inside top 55.

Driving Distance – 2014(31) 2015(44)
GIR – 2014(60) 2015(10)
Proximity – 2014(79) 2015(55)
Par 5 Performance – 2014(129) 2015(12)
SG: Tee to Green – 2014(41) 2015(38)
SG: Putting – 2014(126) 2015(113)

William Mcgirt - $5800 (Vegas Odds – 101/1)
Mcgirt comes in at a nice low price and has 2 straight decent finishes (T21-Pebble Beach & T30-Waste Management). He finished T6 here last year after missing cut the year before. It seems he figured out this track pretty fast. He lacks a long drive which I am looking for but solid other stats convinced me to pick him this week.

Driving Distance – 2014(160) 2015(148)
GIR – 2014(105) 2015(21)
Proximity – 2014(148) 2015(67)
Par 5 Performance – 2014(52) 2015(3)
SG: Tee to Green – 2014(128) 2015(43)
SG: Putting – 2014(31) 2015(68)

Tier 4 Targets (DK Pricing MIN-$5500)

I would only suggest using golfers from this tier in GPP’s where you are going stars and scrubs as there is a lot risk in these guys at rock bottom prices. I did however find a couple guys who should make the cut no problem.

Colt Knost - $5000 (Vegas Odds – 151/1)
For the second week in a row I am selecting Colt. His price has dropped $1300 and now falls into Tier 4 for me. Easy pick here as Colt has not missed a cut since November with some nice results posted (T41-Pebble Beach, T17-Farmers, T10-Humana, T17-Sony Open). He also has stats to back his game up even though he lacks a long drive.

Driving Distance – 2015(188)
GIR – 2015(35)
Proximity – 2015(8)
Par 5 Performance - 2015(9)
SG: Tee to Green – 2015(64)
SG: Putting – 2015(55)

Andres Gonzalez - $5400 (Vegas Odds – 176/1)
I have been eyeing Andres for two weeks now but didn’t pull the trigger. He has made all but 2 cuts since last October and good recent finishes (T10-Pebble Beach, T27-Farmers). His price has dropped $300 and seems like he should be in the $6000 range but also has no course history here so it’s understandable. His stats are solid and should be able to make the cut this week if he keeps playing the way he has to start the year.

Driving Distance – 2015(46)
GIR – 2015(19)
Proximity – 2015(61)
Par 5 Performance – 2015(89)
SG: Tee to Green – 2015(129)
SG: Putting – 2015(74)

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Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.

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