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Farmers Insurance Open Recap
To start off my second article I would like to look back at last week’s picks and give you quick recap of results.
Jimmy Walker (T7) – Climbed into contention on Saturday but couldn’t strike on Sunday
Hideki Matsyuma (MC) – Couldn’t get the putter going. Made a few chip ins which over shadowed the poor performance
Martin Laird (T7) – Had 3 rounds under 70 and if not for a 76 Saturday in the tough weather he would have been at top of the leaderboard
Charley Hoffman (MC) – Was unable to make birdies in tougher conditions
Brendan De Jonge (T27) – Played a nice 5 under to make the cut then faded a bit on the weekend playing at a 3 over but solid finish for the price
Ryo Ishikawa (MC) – Shot a steady even par the first 2 days but it wasn’t enough to make the cut
Hudson Swafford (MC) – This long shot came close to making the cut but not enough birdies Friday has him miss out on the weekend.
Carlos Ortiz (T11) – This long shot paid off at his price if you used him. Great finish for the youngster.
To recap I hit 1 player in every Tier who made the cut and finished with two T7’s, a T11, and a T27. Looking to improve on those numbers this week ladies and gents! On to this week.
Courses
Pebble Beach Golf Links – Par 72 (6816 Yds), Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course – Par 71 (6867 Yds) Spyglass Hill Golf Course – Par 72 (6953 Yds)
This week the PGA Tour makes a stop at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro Am. Much like the Humana Challenge this event will be played at 3 different courses for the first 3 days before the cut is made. During these 3 days each player is matched with a celebrity/amateur player and gets a chance to play each course. All 3 courses are under 7000 yards in distance and each course has four Par 5’s. This week I will be looking closely at course history and how players faired at the Humana as playing with an amateur for 3 days at a slower than usual pace can affect their games. I will also be looking at current form and these stats:
Quick note: My pricing Tiers will have slight changes weekly due to changing salaries. Here are my picks for this week.
I will be fading the top 2 in Tier 1 this week as their price is well above the other options. If you choose to roster Day or Walker this week you will have to hit 2 or 3 Tier 4 guys to make it work salary wise. I won’t be taking this chance.
Patrick Reed $12,100 (Vegas odds-17/1) – I am looking for Reed to get back to his strong play that he has shown so far this year after a week off. He is ranked 68 in GIR, 45 in SGP, 47 in Par 3 Perf, and 38 in Par 5 Perf. Match this with his strong current form (T40-Waste Management, T24-Humana, 1st-Hyundai TOC) and his course history (2014-T13, 2013-T7) and you have yourself a great player to pay up for in Tier 1.
Ryan Palmer $10,000 (Vegas Odds-26/1) – I am taking Palmer as my second Tier 1 choice mainly because of his current form (T2-Waste Management, T10-Humana, T17-Sony Open). His stats help show why he is in such good form (GIR-29, SGP-15, Par 3-25). He hasn’t had the greatest track record at Pebble(2014-T32, 2013-MC, 2012-T29) but he is do for a big win.
Kevin Na $8300 (Vegas Odds-46/1) – This pick was made due to his course history (2014-T2, 2013-T22, 2012-T5, 2011-T25). He hasn’t finished outside T25 last four years at this track. One of the reasons many believe he has a good track record here is because of his snails pace. The slow pace suits well for this structure where it is slow as the tournament is being played as a 3 day Pro Am. Three out of his four stats fall outside the top 100 ranks but he is 6th overall in Par 3 Performance. Na also rarely misses cuts.
Jason Kokrak $8200 (Vegas Odds-51/1) – Kokrak hasn’t missed a cut since the Shriners back in October and has some nice stats to back the results. He ranks 34 in SGP and ranks 3 in Par 5 Perf. His track record is also fairly promising (2014-T19, 2013-MC, 2012-T9). Besides the MC in ’12 he has played well here.
Colt Knost $6300 (Vegas Odds-126/1) – With this pick I am throwing out course history as he has missed his last 2 cuts here back in ’12 and ’11. He is massively improved his game since then and is on a great run so far this year. (Farmers-T17, Humana-T10, Sony Open-T17) His stats back up his success early in the season as well. (GIR-53rd, SGP-41st, Par 3Perf-11th, Par 5 Perf-25th) For the price, it is tough to find another golfer this week playing as well as Colt.
Bryce Molder $6700 (Vegas Odds-101/1) – Molder comes in with a rank of 26th in Strokes Gained Putting and is inside the Top 100 on Par 5 Performance. Molder has a good course history here as well (2014-T10, 2013-T12, 2012-MC, 20111-T6) Definitely a fair price for a guy who plays well in this structure.
Michael Putnam $5900 (Vegas Odds-176/1) – Putnam seems to be an ascending player. Since 2006 he has spent time on both the PGA Tour(’07,’11,’14) and Web.com tour. This is his first back to back full season and has started with some nice stats. (GIR-47, Par 3 Perf-4, Par 5 Perf-38) His weakest stat I am looking at this week is putting so if he can put some putts together this week you could see a top 20 for sure. He finished T35 here last year in his first attempt.
Jason Bohn $5500 (Vegas Odds-176/1) – This pick is based on stats so far this year. (GIR-24, SGP-105, Par 3 Perf-11, Par 5 Perf-25) Has made the last 6 cuts and in these price ranges that is all you are really looking for.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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