Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/31/15

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Point Guard

Brian Roberts - FD 4300 DK 4600 DFSTR 3200
Man, there aren't a lot of players who are less sexy than Mr. Roberts. But you know what he has going for him? Opportunity, and price. With Walker gone, Roberts is going to run the point for the foreseeable future. And again, he kinda sucks, but he's averaged 35 minutes and 25 fantasy points so far as a starter. That's a phenomenal deal on these prices, and he looks like a must play against Denver's league average point guard defense.

Darren Collison - FD 6700 DK 6500 DFSTR 6100
Playing DFS means you'll rarely get to play guys who are riding a wave of huge success. Those guys get priced out. Then we're left with guys like Collison. And I might be understating Collison's case a bit. Sure, he was pretty bad against the Raptors - but he also played fewer minutes than usual since it was a blow-out. In close games, the Kings' point guard is a lock for 35 minutes with upside for more, and he just recently put up nearly 5x on this FanDuel price against a tough Golden State defense. The Pacers have allowed 4% more scoring to opposing point guards than league average, making Collison a nice looking play in a game that should stay close.

Elfrid Payton - FD 6000 DK 5600 DFSTR 5000
Payton has been a minutes monster recently, and has delivered better than 4x on this FanDuel price in every game since January 10th. That's a nice little run. It also means he's a fantastic cash game play, almost regardless of match-up. There's obviously some blow-out risk against Dallas, but the Mavs have allowed 6% more scoring and 8% more rebounding than league average to opposing point guards this season, and I think Elfrid gets payd (zing!) almost regardless of how the game goes.

Also considered: Rajon Rondo. After getting blanked(!) against the Rockets, that allow an above league average performance for every stat against opposing PGs - including giving up a 7% boost to rebounding and assists over league average. He's really been bad recently, but he looks a lot like a buy-low here.

Editor's note: Kyle Lowry was seen limping last night - look out for any punt potential if he sits.

 

Shooting Guard

Kyle Korver - FD 5100 DK 5200 DFSTR 4700
Korver is a great guy to keep in the back of your mind for daily fantasy basketball purposes precisely because of the variable outcomes he brings to the table. A lot of this comes from Korver's general lack of being able to create his own shot. This is a good thing for us, believe it or not! It means his price remains depressed due to what he does in bad match-ups, so we can ride him when his price gets low enough or the match-up gets good enough. The 76ers of Philadelphia are one such good match-up. They've allowed a staggering 23% more scoring to opposing shooting guards this year. They basically don't defend the position. And, they've been a little spunky recently, making me sweat the blowout less. I'll play Korver everywhere, point spread be damned.

Wesley Matthews - FD 5800 DK 5900 DFSTR 5200
Matthews had a streak of 5 great games on this price before laying a random egg against Cleveland, and he's out there stinking against the Hawks as I write this. So why is he in the second spot? Well, picking shooting guards in daily fantasy basketball requires a steady hand. Nothing has fundamentally changed with Matthews unless there is a secret injury or something. So, the price dips down, and we can capitalize. Milwaukee allows more scoring, rebounds, and assists to opposing SGs while greatly depressing defensive stats, but this won't matter for Matthews' offense-first fantasy game.

J.R. Smith - FD 5600 DK 5100 DFSTR 4800
Well I recommended Smith last night on the assumption that Lebron would be out. Then, as of halftime (and this writing), he's on pace to put up 6x on his FanDuel price. So I'm just going to trust the projection system here, which is a lot less biased than I am by external factors. It sees how awful Minny is at defending the shooting guard position (10% more scoring than league average), and thinks you should play Smith at these bargain bin prices. And he doesn't even need a ton of minutes - this projection is on 32 mins.

Also considered: James Harden, if you're feeling spendy and you can save elsewhere. I don't love either of Matthews or Smith enough to not want to go up and grab Harden if you can afford it - he should do great against whichever of Augustin or KCP tries to defend him.

Great freerolls for miles over at Scorestreak, by the way. Get involved today by clicking the banner below! And they have a great offer: refer a friend, have them play $25 worth of games and get a $25 Amazon gift card.

 

Small Forward

Wilson Chandler - FD 5700 DK 5900 DFSTR 5000
Our projection system can't get enough of Mr. Wilson Chandler. In his last 5 games he's topped 6x on this FanDuel price thrice, and been around 4x twice. And one of those 4x's actually made him a probably play, as he outscored top SF play of the night Carmelo Anthony. And it was in a blow-out! In this one he'll face Charlotte, who can hardly be called a great match-up for opposing small forwards (depressing scoring by 11%), but I'm a lot more confident in his minutes against a lousy Bobcats team than normal, washing out the generally difficult match-up.

Khris Middleton - FD 5500 DK 5300 DFSTR 4500
In the world of uncertainty that is the Milwaukee Bucks, Middleton continues to burble along at his 30-34 minutes per game while paying somewhere between 4-6.5 times his FanDuel price on a nightly basis. Batum is a plus defender to be sure, but Portland has still allowed roughly league average amounts of fantasy points to opposing SFs this season. I like Middleton for safety and upside.

Jeff Green - FD 5100 DK 4800 DFSTR 5300
It's looking like a nice time to be a buyer on Jeff Green. His minutes have been erratic recently, mostly due to the fact that Memphis has been braining every team in sight. This should be a lot less of an issue against Oklahoma city, even if Durant does miss the game. Durant playing doesn't totally phase me either way - if he does play, then the game is more likely to stay close. If he's out, it turns into a plus match-up for Green. I'm into it either way.

Also considered: Lebron James against a rough Timberwolves defense

Great freerolls for miles over at Scorestreak, by the way. Get involved today by clicking the banner below! And they have a great offer: refer a friend, have them play $25 worth of games and get a $25 Amazon gift card.

Power Forward

Donatas Motiejunas - FD 5400 DK 5300
Josh Smith - FD 5700 DK 5300 DFSTR 6600
Motie's performance is sort of speaking for itself as of this writing - we gave him to you for last night's slate, and he's put up 16/9/1 through three quarters against Boston. The price hasn't risen, so the play remains great against an overrated Detroit defensive front court. Smith's a name I never thought I'd write in a picks column again. But, with Dwight on an extended hiatus, it looks like Smith will be quite the beneficiary, sliding into the 4 when Donatas is called upon to play the 5. He's paid 5x and nearly 7x on this price and tonight has 13/6/3 with a block through 3 quarters, healthily on his way to paying once again. I think these 3 quarter stats are relevant, because the Rockets may very well dust the Pistons - but I think each of these guys is good for safety and upside here.

Zach Randolph - FD 8600 DK 8500 DFSTR 7200
Z-bo has established himself as the safest of the safe when it comes to upper-middle tier power fowards. His worst game in his last ten saw him scoring 32 fantasy points - hardly a killer on his reasonable salary. While he rarely goes off, either, he will flex 5x-6x upside in the right match-up. Playing against the Thunder certainly qualifies. They're excellent against Centers, meaning the Grizz will likely funnel their post game through Randolph instead of Gasol - a tactic opposing teams have tried all season, leading to the Thunder allowing 5% more scoring and rebounding to the PF position than league average. I love Z-bo as the higher priced PF play of the night.

John Henson - FD 4700 DK 4100 DFSTR 3700
This obviously depends on whether or not Henson gets the start, but if he does, he's simply inappropriately priced (as we saw in his 29.7 fantasy point performance his last time out). Keep an eye on this one.

There are some other decent PF plays too, but they're close enough to not elaborate on here. If you're curious, check out a free three day trial of our projection system to check 'em out.

 

Center

Al Jefferson - FD 8200 DK 7100 DFSTR 7300
Big Al! Jefferson has looked phenomenal since returning from injury, and now that he's got his sea legs under him, it looks like he'll get the minutes to support the points per minute output. Jefferson was already second to Boogie when it came to usage for centers, and with Walker out, one has to think that Charlotte is going to ride him even further. Sweetening the deal? That'd be Denver's league-worst defense of the center position - allowing 11% more scoring than league average. I'll take Jefferson for safety and upside, until the price climbs 10% to where it belongs.

Timofey Mozgov - FD 5200 DK 5200 DFSTR 4600
Mozgov was great in limited minutes against the Kings, living up to last night's recommendation of him even if things did go pear-shaped in a blow-out (I'm only guessing he won't play the 4th - the game is a 20 point spread at the close of Q3). He's hardly a cash game play because the minutes are so erratic, but against a lousy Minnesota team Moz has as much upside on a points per dollar basis as anyone.

Also considered: Chris Kaman, Tyson Chandler.

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