Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/30/15

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Point Guard

Zach LaVine - FD 4000 DK 4000 DFSTR 3800
This assumes Mo is out again, of course. But if he is, LaVine is the play of the day at the position. The young PG put the Celtics' collective heads on spikes in his last game as a starter, pouring on 32.4 fantasy points in just 25 minutes of play. In this one, against one of the other worst teams in the league? He should get his full run, and be able to do plenty with it. Philly plays a fast pace, which should get LaVine lots of opportunities for his steals, assists, and points. A great spot to save, and pay up elsewhere.

Patrick Beverley - FD 5200 DK 5000 DFSTR 4700
Here's a great chance to get some separation in a great match-up. Beverley has run uncharacteristically bad from the field with Dwight out (2 for 9 and then 3 for 10), which really shouldn't last for long. When Dwight went down in the Fall, Beverley's usage jumped into the mid-teens for shots. We haven't seen this yet, but my guess is that that's only because he's been running bad and the team has been fading the ball away from him on offense. Boston's essentially a little worse than league average at allowing points to opposing PGs, but what we really like here are the price and the perceived usage increase.

Derrick Rose - FD 7200 DK 7800 DFSTR 6400
D-Rose! It's a less than impressive game log for Rose recently (this is written before he hopefully eviscerates the Lakers tonight), but it's been a pretty impressive set of opponents he's had to face. And even in those match-ups, he's gone just under 4x - hardly destroying you if you played him on those nights. In this one? Phoenix is roughly league average at defending the position, and it should be a close and fast paced game. The usage for Rose has soared through the roof, by the way - up to 30.2%. All of the other guys in the top 10 in usage are in the $10k price range on FanDuel (with the exception of Tony Wroten - lol). I still believe we're really buying low here, especially with Butler a bit banged up.

Also considered: A spendy option? The price has ticked down on Lowry to the point where our projection system is a buyer. Keep an eye out.

A guy we're fading: Kyrie Irving. The guy's usage is up, to be sure. And he was an absolute beast the last time out. But the price is high, and the match-up isn't nearly so good. He's obviously a decent guy to spend up on, but we're going contrarian on this one.

Shooting Guard

J.R. Smith - FD 5600 DK 5000 DFSTR 4800
If Kyrie is sort of priced out of consideration for us, we are going to be all over JR Smith. Why? Well, he got the predictable minutes increase with Lebron out (up to 38), but didn't see nearly the usage that would have been expected. This because Kyrie Irving was dribbling a basketball that was engulfed in flames. This won't happen forever. Expect things to regress, Smith to get his, and his price to climb 10% overnight after this contest with Sacramento.

Wesley Matthews - FD 5800 DK 5900 DFSTR 5200
Matthews gave his owners (us!) a beating in his last game, but it had all the trappings of an anomaly. It had been a week since he shot fewer than 15 shots in a game, and he comes up for just 10 against Cleveland. Makes no damn sense. Hotlanta is pretty good at defending the position, but Matthews' perimeter game should be able to hold up anyway. I particularly love him here because this game rates to be close - something that can't be said a lot of times that Portland shows up against an Eastern Conference team.

DeMar DeRozan - FD 6800 DK 6900 DFSTR
Joe Johnson - FD 6000 DK 5700
I like both sides of the shooting guard equation in the Brooklyn/Toronto tilt, so if you're thinking GPP stack, this could be an interesting one. DeRozan's minutes have been solid, and aside from the three f***ing games where I played him, the performance has been there as well. Brooklyn has allowed 8% more points than league average to the position, which is a great sign for how DeRozan could be deployed here. As for Johnson, the usage was terrific last game (19 shots), and he was a little run-bad in the rebounding and assist department away from a very very nice game. Toronto's basically league average against SGs - so he should wind up with another solid performance here as well.

Also considered: With Dwight expected to miss some time, it's the James Harden show from here until the foreseeable future.

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Small Forward

Robert Covington - FD 5600 DK 5200 DFSTR 5000
Andrew Wiggins - FD 6900 DK 7000 DFSTR 5600
The glory of it all! Finally, a game where you can happily play both Sixers and Timberwolves without worrying (too much) about one of the teams getting blown out! Our projection system thinks these guys are the creme de la creme - and why not? Both have A) minutes security in a close game and B) a phenomenal match-up based on their respective prices. Philly's defensive struggles are well documented at this point, but were you aware that the Wolves are allowing a staggering 12% more points to opposing small forwards this season (good for league worst)? Well, they are. So now you know.

Trevor Ariza - FD 5200 DK 5500 DFSTR 5200
DeMarre Carroll - FD 5300 DK 5000 DFSTR 4600
You're cool with a little player clumping, yes? Cool. Ariza and Carroll are basically the same guy at this moment in time. Both have fantastic minutes security on teams with highly predictable rotations. Both are reasonably priced relative to their production and opportunity. Their opponents (Boston and Portland, respectively) are nearly identical in terms of defending the small forward position - a little better than league average. If I had to choose, though? That's where it gets tough. I believe Ariza may have more upside with Dwight out, but Carroll seems a lot safer given what should be a close match-up with Portland. Take your pick, and roll with it.

Our projection system is close on a lot of small forwards tonight. You're just a free three day trial away from seeing for yourself!

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Power Forward

Pau Gasol - FD 9500 DK 9400 DFSTR 8000
On a night where you're going to save in a lot of spots, you'll need to spend up somewhere. Instead of going top dollar, however, I'd recommend going for Pau. Phoenix gets chewed up for 5% more points and 10% more rebounds than league average to opposing power forwards, and that is the position that Pau Gasol of Spain plays for the Chicago Bulls. Pau's been in the 4.5-6x range against Miami and Golden State. What can he do against the fast paced, poorly defending Suns? Only people who can predict the future can know for sure.

Donatas Motiejunas - FD 5400 DK 5300 DFSTR 4600
With Dwight missing extended time, Motiejunas could wind up being the single greatest beneficiary. With Joey Dorsey being impossibly bad at staying on the court, Donatas should continue to see significant run at the 5, and has all of a sudden become an incredibly safe option on a $5,400 FanDuel price. While there's blow-out risk in play here, while he's on the court, Motiejunas will have the chance to go up against a very flimsy Boston front court, that's allowed 7% more scoring to both power forwards and centers this season. A great spot for some cheap safety.

Nerlens Noel - FD 5700 DK 5000
Can I really recommend a guy who has scored 14 points in his last three games combined? Sure. It's my site, so I'll do whatever the hell I want. But I can I really play this guy? Our projection system sure thinks so. Minnesota is an interesting team for power forwards to go against, because while they're only a little bit worse than league average at allowing scoring, they give up 11% more rebounds and 15% more blocks than league average. And Noel? That happens to be where he really excels. It might wind up being a contrarian play, but it could be a monster in GPPs.

Also considered: Kevin Love. It's been fully a year since I've recommended the guy, but here we are. If he's going to play 39 minutes and LeBron isn't in there, he simply WILL pay these prices at some point.

Center

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10800 DK 10700 DFSTR 9300
Coming off of his worst game possibly ever, Cousins might be a lower start than usual at a position that rarely offers a whole lot of safety. But there's quite a bit to love here. First of all, Cleveland is a little worse than league average against centers for the season - but those numbers include when Varejao was in there. Mozgov is not the defender Varejao was. Second of all, a lot of Boogie's nightly risk comes from foul trouble, and I don't think Mozgov has the offensive game to put him in that position. Third of all, he's going to want to pad his stats after an off game. I think he's going to put up some huge numbers.

Hassan Whiteside - FD 6200 DK 6400 DFSTR 3800
Mr. Whiteside! He followed up his absurd 14/13/12 (12 BLOCKS!?) game with 36 fantasy points against the Bucks, and things are only continuing to trend upward. You know that's the case when his Rotoworld writeup reads: "Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said the team doesn't expect Hassan Whiteside to be Hakeem Olajuwon." This is where we are at in Hassanity right now. But, okay, let me adjust myself and offer some analysis. I'm back. Dallas hasn't been the force against the Center position that many thought they would be after acquiring Tyson Chandler - they've allowed 3% more points and 5% more rebounds than HASSANITY HASSANITY sorry I just can't stop. Love him for safety and the incredible upside.

Chris Kaman - FD 4800 DK 4300 DFSTR 5500
Timofey Mozgov - FD 5200 DK 5200
Our projection system likes these guys for totally different reasons, tonight. For Kaman, it loves the increased minutes and the continuing reasonable price tag. For Moz, it loves that the Kings have allowed 10% more scoring than league average to opposing centers. For me? I'll play one of the above guys. But if it's a money thing, both of these guys pass the sniff test.

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