Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/29/15

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Point Guards

Derrick Rose - FD 7200 DK 7600 DFSTR 6400
This one is rather obvious. The Lakers are the worst team in the league defending point guards and Rose is really finding his rhythm of late with the scoring. His downside can be that he becomes a little too scoring dependent and the rest of the stats don’t catch up enough to raise his floor. But man the Lakers are so, so terrible defending this position that I don’t see how you get away from Rose at this position tonight. With a shorter slate I wouldn’t want to fade him in this spot considering the matchup and the lack of other solid options with a couple of good defensive teams going in other spots. This one is easy in my opinion.

Langston Galloway - FD 4800 DK 4300 DFSTR 4800
There are a couple of things to like about Galloway. The first is that even in a Melo-led offense, Langston isn’t afraid to get his shots up. He’s getting double digit looks every game and is, at this point, firmly entrenched in the starting shooting guard role. It isn’t often you will play a shooting guard in the point guard spot, but Galloway’s minutes, price and production are fine enough in this spot.

Strongly consider Brandon Knight. Also Beno Udrih if Conley sits again.

Shooting Guards

Lot going on at this position tonight.
Victor Oladipo - FD 7000 DK 7000 DFSTR 6200
The Bucks have issues defending the shooting guard position and that could continue tonight. Dipo is a cash game play through and through. He gets full run almost no matter the flow of the game or whether the Magic are getting blown out. That second piece is extremely important as he will get his 35. On a slate like this one, and a position like shooting guard, you can happily pay for that safety. He doesn’t have the best multiplier in the world, but I like the matchup. It’s a little worse if Brandon Knight guards him but I don’t think that will be the case.

Jimmy Butler - FD 8200 DK 7500 DFSTR 6600
If he’s back in the lineup tonight you have to consider him against the Lakers even at a higher tag. With the pace of play and volume of the game it’s not unreasonable for him to pay. Of course his usage dips when Rose is around. We get that. But that really hasn’t been his major issue of late (though even a 10% dip in shot attempts can really hamper a guy long term). He’s seeing shots. He just hasn’t been making them with as great a frequency as early in the year (or really for his career). This would be a slight overpay and if the slate was larger I don’t think I’d do it. But you are left with few options.

Jordan Clarkson - FD 3700 DK 3800 DFSTR 3000
The minutes might go away tomorrow for all we know. But if he’s running the point for the Lakers and getting out there in the high twenties then he makes a really solid consideration at his prices. Jeremy Lin could come back into the starting lineup at any time and I think the Lakers will try a bunch of different (losing) stuff now that Kobe is done. Clarkson has the run now. All things considered, I’d rather play Clarkson here than Ellington.

Courtney Lee - FD 4300 DK 3700 DFSTR 4100
He’s on the court for awhile every game. So he’s got that going for him, which is nice. But since moving to a bench role he’s seen his shot attempts drop off a cliff. Like completely plummet. There is a bit of safety in his run, but downgrade him some because the role has clearly changed.

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Small Forwards

Jeff Green - FD 5200 DK 5200 DFSTR 5200
Considering Denver is in the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency, you of course are going to see a bunch of Grizzlies on this slate. That’s the thing with nights like these. It’s going to be tough to make cases for some of the guys in grind-it-out matchups unless the prices are way off. Green, when he’s in the offense along with Conley, Z-Bo and Gasol is going to see a usage downgrade for sure. But his starter minutes against a bad defensive team are tough to ignore at these prices.

Khris Middleton - FD 5500 DK 5200 DFSTR 4300
The disclaimer you will always get with the Bucks is to be wary of the whims of Jason Kidd. Milwaukee goes about ten guys deep (none of them too terribly great) and there are nights when a guy will see a reduction in minutes seemingly out of nowhere. Middleton’s been around thirty minute for a while now, one of the more consistent guys on the team in that regard. But that’s what Jason Kidd does: waits til you get comfy and then Bam! Bench time.

Wilson Chandler - FD 5900 DK 6200 DFSTR 4800
Dude is streaky that’s for sure. And it won’t feel amazing getting him in there against the likes of Memphis who tend to grind games (and other teams) down to a nub. Problem tonight is this position is razor thin. I don’t think you can spend up for Melo so you are left in the phantom zone, picking between dudes with bad matchups, minutes issues, consistency problems, or all three.

Power Forwards

Jason Smith - FD 4200 DK 3900 DFSTR 3600
He was one of our top power forward plays last night and he delivered in a big way. The most attractive thing about Smith is how many minutes he’s getting while the price just refuses to move. Since entering the starting lineup he’s basically crushed this price every time out save one game. I wouldn’t even think twice about this play. I’ve been running him out there in lineups for a couple of weeks now and outside of that one game, this has been pretty easy money.

Pau Gasol - FD 9500 DK 9300 DFSTR 8200
Zach Randolph - FD 8600 DK 8200 DFSTR 7000
Our system has both of these guys coming in at the same multipliers so choosing between them isn’t the easiest thing. They both are in matchups against weaker front courts that struggle with opposing fours. While neither team is dumpster diving against the position, they are both below average for sure. Because both of these guys rate out very close from a value standpoint I think you can definitely construct other pieces of your lineup to see who fits better. I don’t always advocate that strategy (or at least not with lower tier players) but it’s fine here. They are both getting money in solid and have an advantage in the game. Both get solid run and the short slate doesn’t have you avoiding blowouts too often.

Center

Marc Gasol - FD 8400 DK 8000 DFSTR 8100
He’s the top center play today and I suspect he will be a huge percentage cash game start. He’s facing a Denver team allowing 12% more scoring than league average against opposing centers. They will really struggle with Gasol on the offensive end of things where I suspect the Grizzlies will run their offense through the two bigs all night long. I’m not positive Gasol has enormous upside at these prices, and the Grizz could wax Denver, but he’s certainly as safe as they come here on this slate.

Nikola Vucevic - FD 9100 DK 8600 DFSTR 7500
Our system like Gasol better on a points per dollar basis but it’s hard to ignore Vucevic here. Some opposing centers have put up some monster-ish games against Pachulia and company lately. Vucevic obviously has big game upside in the right matchup and this one against the Bucks could present just such an opportunity. He’s pricey, but could abuse the Bucks down low.

Louis Amundson - FD 3800 DK 3400 DFSTR 3000
If Aldrich is down again then the Knicks really don’t have any available bigs. They will need to play this pony-tailed delight thirty or so minutes. He got frisky last night against the Thunder, but they don’t have any offensive-minded center types. Mahimni and Hibbert are slightly different animals.

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