Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/25/15

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Point Guard

Elfrid Payton - FD 5900 DK 5500 DFSTR 4600
Payton's been something of a favorite here on the DFSR all season, and it seems like he's only gotten better. Oddly, though, his price has barely moved. He's shred this price in his last 6 games - never dipping below 4.5x his FanDuel price, and paying as much as 7x+. The Pacers are in the bottom half of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing PGs, and Elfrid's well-rounded game gives him a high floor AND a high ceiling. And I'm not worried about the little knee thing - he wasn't listed on the injury report, and should be a full go for Sunday's tilt.

Patrick Beverley - FD 5200 DK 5200 DFSTR 4800
Our projection system loves Beverley here whether Dwight plays or not. And if Dwight plays? I personally like him a ton more. He was shooting 12-16 times per game with Howard out in November-December, which is up from his normal range of 8-10. And, of course, the match-up here is ridiculous. The Lakers are the league's worst at allowing fantasy points to opposing PGs, and a fast paced game could see Beverley compiling a massive total in points, boards, and steals. He scored 27.2 fantasy points against them with Dwight out in December. So, yeah. Great spot.

Brandon Knight - FD 7500 DK 7600 DFSTR 6800
I was tempted to put John Wall in this spot, but I decided to go with Knight instead. The Spurs are a tough opponent, but Knight has just been fantastic recently, and the price is absolutely reasonable for the 40+ fantasy point upside that Knight can provide. Is he a cash game play? Nah. But for GPP purposes, his upside outstrips most plays at the position if the Bucks can manage to stick around.

LATE BREAKING PUNT: Well, late for me. Brandon Jennings just got hurt, and it looks like Augustin will be a fantastic punt today. Arguably the play of the day if Jennings' injury is as serious as it looked.

An early slate special: Westbrook could absolutely clown Kyrie in this one.

Shooting Guard

Tyreke Evans - FD 7500 DK 8200 DFSTR 6900
Eric Gordon - FD 5400 DK 5700
The big world keeps on turning, and these two guys keep being under-priced relative to their production with Holiday out. If other situations are any indicator, their price will correct just in time for Holiday to return. But for now? I'll be getting while the getting is good. They seem like the safest plays in the world for cash games, and either of them is a hot shooting/assist night from putting up a monster. I like Tyreke quite a bit better (because Dallas has allowed 8% more fantasy points than league average to opposing PGs this season, and that's really where 'Reke is playing), but I'll take either happily.

Brad Beal - FD 6200 DK 6300
I don't think you can play him in cash games simply because his minutes are so variable depending on the game script. But here's my GPP case. First of all, it's pretty tough to blow Denver out in that thin air. When the Wiz don't blow their opponents out, Beal will stay on the court for 36-39 minutes. And when he runs hot from behind the arc or in the secondary stats, we get games like his 40+ fantasy point outburst against Brooklyn. Denver is about league average at preventing points scoring, but has gotten crushed at the position in terms of allowing rebounds and assists. Could be an interesting play.

Also considered: Kyle Korver, if you aren't spooked by the recent run bad. Also - James Harden - his usage should go up with Dwight out, though this game could be over before it starts.

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Small Forward

Wilson Chandler - FD 5300 DK 5600 DFSTR 4800
If there's one thing I want everyone to take away from playing daily fantasy basketball, it's this: you must pay attention to why players are struggling. Chandler had run insanely bad from behind the arc for a long stretch, depressing both his price and his ownership percentage. But Chandler wasn't going to shoot 20% forever, and came back with a huge game against the Celtics. In close games, Chandler will play nearly 40 minutes. If he plays 40 minutes, a $5,300 price tag is simply a joke. Might they get blown out here? Sure. But I'll take my chances if it allows me to get a star elsewhere.

Chandler Parsons - FD 6200 DK 5900 DFSTR 5600
Here's your cash game play of the day at the position. The Pelicans have no natural defender at the small forward position, and tend to rotate through a rather sad looking cast of characters there. In games where Parsons plays 35 minutes or more, he's essentially a lock for 4.5x-5x on this FanDuel price. There's no reason to think the Pelicans shouldn't be able to stay in the game at home, leaving Chandler with his full assortment of minutes at the position the Pelicans have the greatest trouble defending.

DeMarre Carroll - FD 5400 DK 5100 DFSTR 4600
Carroll is one of the surest-fire minutes guys in the game - locked in for 29-32 regardless of what happens. This limits his upside, to some degree, because his production is relatively priced in. But it allows for a nice safe investment on nights when he's got a good match-up. Tonight is one such night. The Wolves have allowed 14% more scoring than league average to opposing small forwards, and Carroll should be primed to take advantage.

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Power Forward

Keep an eye on: Donatas Motiejunas and Joey Dorsey. If Dwight is out, both of these guys become PHENOMENAL plays - though you'll need to play Dorsey at center on FD.

Brandon Bass - FD 4400 DK 4400 DFSTR 4200
With Olynyk out until at least the all-star break, Bass is going to anchor almost every team's cash game lineups night after night. GPPs, too. The Celtics were running the freaking offense through him against the Nuggets, and he responded - putting up a 17/9/5 line with a block and 3 steals to boot. If you're counting at home, that's 43.3 fantasy points. On a sub $5k salary. Just ridiculous. And not a fluke - he topped 35 fantasy points in his previous start. Might the Celts get blown out here? Yes. But who cares - let your opponents make the mistake of not playing him. Don't make it yourself.

Paul Millsap - FD 7800 DK 8200 DFSTR 7600
On a day that should feature a decent amount of value, I love Millsap as a spot to spend up a little bit. Millsap is fresh off a 22/10/3/2/2 performance against the Thunder, and gets a far more favorable match-up with Minnesota tonight. While the Wolves have been respectable at defending against scoring, they've gotten blown up for 11% more rebounds to opposing power forwards than league average, and gotten far more shots blocked as well. I think Millsap should safely pay value here, with upside for more if the game stays close.

Pau Gasol - FD 9100 DK 9200 DFSTR 8200
A little early game mojo for you. I love love love Gasol matched up against Bosh in this game. Gasol is another guy like Beal, listed above. When the game is close, his minutes can go sky high. This leaves room for very nice value if things break his way. Miami may have a tough time hanging, but Gasol could positively crush this price in this nationally televised contest.

If you can make the money work... I don't mind investing in Anthony Davis at all. He should overwhelm Dirk. Only reason he's not higher is I'd like to see him have a game at his pre-toe self before going too crazy.

Center

Marcin Gortat - FD 5900 DK 5500 DFSTR 5900
If there's a safer bet to pay 5x from the center position today (aside from Joey Dorsey if Dwight's out), I'm all ears. Denver has gotten bulldozed for 20% (!!) more points than league average from opposing centers this season. 20%! That's just so bad. Gortat's minutes are secure, and I'd be shocked if he doesn't pay value today.

Timofey Mozgov - FD 5100 DK 5200 DFSTR 4700
Okay, it's an early game special, and many of you won't play the slate. But it really is a fantastic spot for Mozgov. Cleveland seems perfectly aware of how to use him, and unlike Denver, they aren't shy to play him 30+ minutes when he's looking good. OKC is a tough match-up, but he recently dominated tough match-up Joakim Noah for 15 points and 15 rebounds. He put up 14 and 12 against Boogie. Moz is a legit NBA center, and in what should be a high octane contest, I love his odds to put up a great line.

Joey Dorsey - FD 3700 DK 3400 DFSTR 3000
It's the third time I've mentioned it, but it bears repeating. He's averaged 21 fantasy points in his last two games as a back-up on fewer than 20 minutes per - if this boosts to 25-30, he could put up a monster.

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