Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/23/15

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Point Guard

Langston Galloway - FD 4600 DK 4100
He's done it, folks. He's ascended to the top of the DFSR points per dollar food chain. It's as weird for me as it is for you - but the guy has earned it. In his two games as a starter, he's been deadly consistent - posting 29.4 and 31.5 FanDuel points on 31+ minutes each. Small sample size and all - I get it. But the minutes seem locked in, and the production looks legit. He's not running insanely hot from the field, there's no random 7 steal game in there - Galloway is a real fantasy player. And these prices open up a ton of big money guys elsewhere. For cash games, Galloway's a must play - and there's obviously a ton of upside built into these still too low prices.

Derrick Rose - FD 7200 DK 7300 DFSTR 6500
Rose is off his minutes limit, and on the Bulls, you probably know what that means by now. It means we're going to see a lot more 37 minute games from him, and far fewer 30 minutes and fewer games. If he's going to play mid to high 30s minutes, this price is simply dead wrong. In two of Rose's last three games he's posted 7.5x and 6x on this FanDuel price. It's a big joke. Dallas is middle of the pack against PGs this season, which means that it's a green light for Rose in all formats.

Kyle Lowry - FD 8800 DK 9300 DFSTR 7600
DeRozan's return has certainly cut into Lowry's usage - but that's why Lowry's price has dropped by 10-15% across the industry. And let's not forget a few key factors - Philly's allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing PGs this season, and in their last meet-up, Lowry posted 46.4 fantasy points against them. And that was with DeRozan. If you can save up elsewhere, Lowry gets my full endorsement.

Also considered: Two mid-range priced risky guys: Mo Williams, and Tony Parker. Our projection system LOVES the pair of these guys - both reasonably priced with incredible upside in great match-ups. But there's that pesky consistency things. Either of them could post 7x on these prices without batting an eye... but they could each do 2x-3x as well. GPP plays for me - but they won't sniff my cash games unless there's significant news.
 

Shooting Guard

Tyreke Evans - FD 7500 DK 8300 DFSTR
Eric Gordon - FD 5400 DK 5500 DFSTR 4800
Another night with Holiday out, another night where these two will top our rankings. The case for Tyreke is easy - I love the safety you can get from a guy who's running the point out of the shooting guard position. The case for Gordon might be even easier. With space to do his thing, he's cashing in on the potential the league saw in him as a feature piece in the Chris Paul trade. He's been the surest bet for 5x on this price at this position for a week, and last game tapped into some insane upside, putting up nearly 8x on this price. I don't think you can go wrong with either, but I'll take Gordon for his price & opportunity at the moment. Match-up hardly matters here - but Minnesota is in the bottom third of the league against point guards and shooting guards this season.

Klay Thompson - FD 8100 DK 7900 DFSTR 6900
It was close between him and D-Wade for the "high priced guy who should see a ton of shots and provide a decent return for cash games," but I went with the taller Splash Brother over what's left of Flash. Why? Well, it's a basic safety question. Do you trust D-Wade's hamstring, or his minutes if he tweaks something? I don't. I'll take Klay, who's chugging along merrily in tough-ish match-ups over his last four games, against the mediocre defense of Ben Mclemore.

Also considered: DeMar Derozan. DeRozan's price might never be this low again for his entire career. And he has a match-up like you read about. But those are two BAD games in a row, and I get spooked about fresh-off-an-injury guys when they start "running bad." Great GPP play, but can you stomach him in cash games? I'm not sure I can.

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Small Forward

Robert Covington - FD 5600 DK 5400 DFSTR 5000
Which minutes situation do you believe for Robert Covington? I'm pretty sure that, if Mbah A Moute is out, Covington is a solid bet for 35+ minutes per game. And while this Raps team might seem like a big blowout risk on the surface, they've really cooled off quite a bit after coming out of the gate red hot. Covington is certainly still raw, but on a night where SF is pretty barren, he seems as likely as anyone else at the position to have 5x-6x+ upside.

Wilson Chandler - FD 5300 DK 5500 DFSTR 4700
There hasn't been a player more infuriating to own at the small forward position recently, but I'm not sure that should dissuade us. When they're not getting blown out, no small forward going today is going to get you this many minutes of playing time for this low a salary. But the weird thing? That sort of hasn't mattered for Chandler, recently. I don't know what to say, but we just went through this exact thing with Nic Batum. The guy disappeared for a while inexplicably, his price dropped, and then he exploded in a good match-up. Boston has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season, and it really IS a terrific price. It looks like it might be a good night to follow the old maxim: when a position sucks, get as little money in there as you can.

Draymond Green - FD 7300 DK 7700 DFSTR 6100
Full disclaimer: Small Forward is a wasteland, today. But I do kinda love Draymond Green. Why? Well, his price has dipped after a long stretch of improbably huge Warriors blow-outs. Now, this is obviously a risk against the Kings as well, but there are so few good small forward options today that I'm willing to roll the dice. The Warriors have made blowing other teams out look routine recently, but it's actually less probably in the NBA than popular perception would have you believe. You don't have to travel too far back in Green's game log to see him paying 4x-6x on these prices, and it sure looks like a buy-low opportunity.

The big elephants in the room: Durant and Lebron. I don't know what to tell you, but our projection system simply isn't a fan of the production you can get from these two from a points per dollar perspective. Now, if you can find great ways to save elsewhere? Obviously, these guys can fill it up in a sort of salary independent way. And it's not the worst thing to upgrade from lousy guys at the position instead of upgrading from great cheap guys like Langston Galloway. Still, I wouldn't go out of my way to build around these two tonight.

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Power Forward

Taj Gibson - FD 5500 DK 6100 DFSTR 5500
If Noah is out again, you're looking at one of the easiest plays at any position. It's unclear to me why sites don't update situations like this more readily (RIP: Draftstreet), but here we are. If he's going to play high 30s minutes, Gibson's floor is something like 4.5x his FanDuel price. His ceiling is probably 8x. He's literally match-up proof at these prices, but if you care, Dallas is in the bottom third of the league at defending the PF position from a fantasy point of view.

Anthony Davis - FD 11200 DK 11100 DFSTR 8800
Brow, brow, brow brow BROWWWWW. If you can afford to - and you should be able to on a big night like this - our projection system would have you believe that Anthony Davis is easily the best big dollar play of the night. Any fears that the toe would bother him were assuaged when he soul-crushed the Lakers for 51.1 FanDuel points on 37 minutes in his first game back, and in this game he draws an even better match-up. Minnesota has allowed the most points in the league against opposing power-forwards this season, and Davis will undoubtedly anchor every single one of my cash game lineups tonight.

Pau Gasol - FD 9100 DK 9300 DFSTR 8300
Clearly a big step down from Davis, but if you just can't make the money work on Davis (or if Noah comes back, bumping Taj), I'm looking right at Pau. The Bulls' elder-statesman big man is playing a fortune of minutes with Noah out, and while he obviously draws a tougher defensive match-up in Tyson Chandler, a lot of Pau's top of the key game should be fairly resistant to Chandler's wiles. I don't think it's the highest upside play of the night, but there's a seriously high floor here in what should be a close game - I'm figuring on 4x this FanDuel price at a minimum.

Center

Dwight Howard - FD 8100 DK 7800 DFSTR 7800
Feels like I haven't written much about Dwight this season, but he's quietly been a pretty consistent option at this price point. In what should be an up and down game that stays fairly close, I really love Dwight against Phoenix's rotating cast of sub-par defenders at the center position. He's locked in to a 35 minute rotation in close games, and you're telling me he can't give me a fantasy point per minute against Alex Len and Miles Plumlee? Well, stop. Because he can. If you can afford him, I think he makes a fine option to spend up to tonight, especially in the absence of a lot of fantastic value plays at Center that we often see.

Nikola Vucevic - FD 8900 DK 8700 DFSTR 7400
Two quiet games against elite center defenses (Memphis and OKC) had the daily fantasy hoops community down on Vucevic, but not us! We played Vuc a decent amount in his 46.5 fantasy point performance against Andre Drummond, and will highly consider riding his hot hand tonight as well. The DFS community has a short memory, but Vucevic was on a streak of three straight 50 fantasy point performances before coming up short against OKC and MEM. The Knicks barely have anyone who even plays this position. Vuc might literally kill them. Something like 25 & 15 seems eminently possible.

Henry Sims - FD 4300 DK 4300 DFSTR 4700
This is dependent on Nerlens Noel's status, but if Sims is going to get 28+ minutes, our projection system thinks he's an absolute beast. Valancunias is banged up, and the Sixers sort of don't have anyone else to be a big body if Noel is missing. What really makes this play is the price safety - on a night where center is shallower than usual, you could do a lot worse than to escape the position and pay a few thousand for Sims while paying up for great big money plays elsewhere.

Also considered: Jonas Valancunias, but monitor the situation with his calf before committing to anything!

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