Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/21/15

The NBA is in full swing and you’re here to get the best value plays in the industry. Enjoy!

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Point Guards

Damian Lillard - FD 9000 DK 9500 DFSTR 7500
Our system doesn’t love him here, but it hasn’t fully grasped that Aldridge is out tonight. When Aldridge is on the court Lillard’s usage rate is about 24. When the big guy is gone? Damien’s rate goes up to a whopping 36. In what should be a high volume game against the run and gun Suns, Lillard could put up a million shots. His price tag is high but I still think you are getting the money in safer considering the circumstances.

Langston Galloway - FD 4000 DK 3600 DFSTR 3500
How many people in the world, Galloway included, would have thought about three weeks ago that this guy would be near the top of the list of value plays on a given DFS day? Zero? That’d be my guess. But here’s the thing: he started at the two last game against the Pelicans, played more than thirty minutes and 21/5/3. That’s a healthy line and is impressive because he was able to get up 14 shots in a game where Melo also played. I think he sticks in the starting rotation for now and has a great matchup against Philly. His prices are still low across the industry and this is a price + opportunity situation we love.

John Wall - FD 8600 DK 9200 DFSTR 7800
Wall’s been struggling (fantasy-wise) a little of late and has seen his price really come down in the short term. This is a fantastic time to buy the guy even in the matchup against OKC. While they are about league average in allowing scoring and assists to points guards, playing Wall here is mostly about the price. With such a big slate, you’ll be able to work multiple expensive pieces into your lineups. The value is there on Wall and his sick passing.

Mo Williams - FD 6100 DK 6200 DFSTR 5200
A rough game against Charlotte on Monday shouldn’t have you worried about buying Mo in this spot. He’s locked into big minutes at the point (as long as Rubio is out, which you’ll need to check leading into lock), and with so many Timberwolves banged up is called upon to do more scoring. He’s never going to do his 52 point game ever again, but if he’s getting his shot to fall he’ll pay this as long as the T-Wolves don’t get rolled.

Elfrid Payton - FD 5900 DK 5400 DFSTR 4600
I just love the run this guy is getting right now. He’s played 33 minutes or more in the Magic’s last four games and Payton looks like he’ll stick at the starting PG. The price is climbing and this could be the last time he’s on the value list for awhile as the tag might outpace his actual production. But you are still getting him with a little room to spare considering just how well he’s played on this number.

Strongly consider Jrue Holiday against the Lakers if he’s back in the lineup and Jeremy Lin if he draws another start with Ronnie Price (and Kobe) out again

 

Shooting Guards

Tyreke Evans - FD 7600 DK 8400 DFSTR
Eric Gordon - FD 5100 DK 5400 DFSTR 4400
I like these plays a whole lot more if Jrue (and also Anthony Davis) sits again tonight. Because if these guys are playing the one and two against the Lakers then pairing them together in cash games gives you a real high floor. The Lakers are just dreadful against opposing guards, mostly the point guard which Reke would be playing again if Holiday sits. Again, this is very dependent on the Pelicans’ injury situation as everyone gets knocked a little the more guys come back to the starting five. But if the Pelicans roll out the same starting five they had (and lost with) against the Knicks then playing these guys as the two primary scorers looks awfully sweet.

Joe Johnson - FD 6300 DK 6100 DFSTR 5900
If you are worried about the guys above, not to fear, there’s plenty of solid plays at this position tonight. Johnson has seen his price stagnate thanks to about two straight weeks of bad shooting. That’s a problem for a guy whose value is wrapped up quite a bit in his scoring. The bad shooting won’t last forever though. He’s still taking the same volume of shots and the rest of his numbers look in line. Plus he’s playing a Sacramento team allowing worse than league average scoring to opposing shooting guards. It’s lining up nicely for Johnson to get off the shooting schnide here.

Monta Ellis - FD 7600 DK 7100 DFSTR 7400
I didn’t write him up because I was a little gun-shy for Monday’s slate, but our system really love Ellis for a bounceback game. I’m annoyed I didn’t even put him in the “consider” section seeing as how solid a pts/$ play he was at the time even against Memphis. I snuck him into a few lineups though and he went 25/7/2. System likes him again today and I’m back on the horse. Minnesota’s been well below average keeping opposing shooting guards away from the rack. Could be another high volume game for Monta here.

Wesley Matthews - FD 5700 DK 5700 DFSTR
Pretty much the same line of thinking as Lillard’s. He sees a bunch more looks when Aldridge isn’t around.

Consider Ben Mclemore and Courtney Lee as cheaper options.

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Small Forwards

Kevin Durant - FD 10700 DK 10700 DFSTR 8600
On the short slate last night I opted for Westbrook over Durant if you were only able to get one big money player in. They hit about the same value and while you were golden if you played them together I have no such reservations tonight. Durant has been in full beast mode of late as he looks completely recovered from the injury and is playing a full compliment of minutes. Washington isn’t the best matchup in the world but Durant could very soon be over 11K on FD. I think we are still buying low on him.

Chandler Parsons - FD 6200 DK 5900 DFSTR 5600
Minnesota has been very much a pile of garbage against small forwards this season. They are below average is just about every phase of the game against this position and Parsons should be able to exploit the Robbie Hummel/ Chase Budinger duo when out there (assuming Kevin Martin isn’t back tonight pushing Wiggins to the three). Parsons can pull some disappearing acts for sure, which makes me a little hesitant about using him in cash games. But he’s been off many a DFS radar for a fair bit now. The last two games have been good, and this is a solid matchup.

Jeff Green - FD 5600 DK 5000 DFSTR 5300
I’m not a huge fan of playing guys coming off the bench in cash games, but am willing to make the exception for Green. Had him as a top play for Monday’s games and he went 11/8/3/2/1 in 32 minutes. The run is the key as though he isn’t starting, he has a great role for the Grizzlies as a scorer they need. That he did this much with Conley back was also a solid sign. Like the matchup with Toronto who’s been shuffling some pieces around lately trying to find the right fit.

Nicolas Batum - FD 5300 DK 5400 DFSTR 5100
I’m putting him on here because he is far and away the best SF option on this slate, but he is for sure playing hurt right now and his wrist isn’t fully recovered. Who knows what happens with Aldridge out, and dude’s price has dropped a ton. The minutes are still there. But man, if he can’t shoot then you have issues.

Consider Wesley Johnson if Kobe sits again. Also Dorrell Wright could be interesting if he sees more run with Aldridge out.

 

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis - FD 11100 DK 11100 DFSTR 9100
The price has come down just a hair on Davis in the short term because of a little absence thanks to injury. It appears that he is (expert opinion coming here) an important to the Pelicans as they lost to the lowly Knicks on Monday. With Davis back though you are getting a super matchup against the Lakers. While LA is much more susceptible to getting overrun by guard play, they are just bad in general, allowing for solid volume across the board. There may be just enough value on this slate to sneak Davis and Durant into lineups together if you’re so inclined. I don’t think it’s the worst strategy (though so much can change between now and lineup lock and there’s no guarantee Davis plays).

Ryan Anderson - FD 4900 DK 5600 DFSTR 4300
This is only if Davis doesn’t play and you have a steady hand. Anderson has been a f#@$ing mess the last three games with Brow on the shelf. He’s shot an appalling 23% in that span (with a little foul trouble thrown in one game for good measure). But man, if he snaps the cold streak from beyond the arc, regressing even slightly to his career mean, then he is crushing this price and you can win a GPP with him. I refuse to believe he’ll continue being this bad. And to be honest, there’s even a case for him in GPPs if Davis is back. If Davis is out I’m running Anderson everywhere. There, I said it.

Channing Frye - FD 4300 DK 5000 DFSTR 4100
If Tobias Harris is out again today then consider Frye a top punt option. Frye has been playing major minutes for the Magic in Harris’ absence and the volume has him easily paying these prices. I never root for injury, but Frye starting again tonight really opens a lot of doors in cash games because you are getting money in very cheap and very safe on him even if there is a threat of the Magic getting stomped by Detroit.

Here’s to somewhat hoping you can play these guys tonight in some fashion because I really don’t love the rest of the position. You can consider Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett if you could feel at all confident about 25 minutes from the latter.

Center

Chris Kaman - FD 4600 DK 4400 DFSTR 5500
Meyers Leonard - FD 3900 DK 3200 DFSTR 3000
I have a decent amount of Blazers on this list tonight, but that’s what happens when a guy who averages 20 shots and ten rebounds a game is suddenly absent. There’s a lot of production that needs to go around. Kaman is a fantastic play tonight because of Aldridge sitting as the big guy is the Blazers second highest usage player (overall) when Lamarcus sits. That’s pretty amazing all things considered. He gets the added bonus of facing a Suns team that’s well below average against centers. I’m all over Kaman tonight. Price is fantastic and everything is lining up for him to really crush his price.

Leonard is much more speculative. The Blazers are hard to pin down with minutes when their starters go down. He’s more a GPP play for me.

Nikola Vucevic - FD 8700 DK 8700 DFSTR 7500
If you want to get some bigger money in on this position then Vuce could be your guy. He’s coming off two subpar games but they were against OKC and Memphis, both of whom defend the position about the best in the league. Detroit and Andre Drummond aren’t anywhere near the same class. The Pistons allow worse than league average scoring and rebounding the opposing center. Vuce is in a nice spot, especially if Harris is still sitting.

Mason Plumlee - FD 6600 DK 6500 DFSTR 5500
Our system like Plumlee tonight and it doesn’t even know about the last time he faced Boogie. In that game about a month ago Plum-Dog went 22/4/3 (steals) while only committing two fouls in a very tough matchup. I’m like him considerably less than the guys above, but he’s in the mix for sure.

Consider Andre Drummond

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