Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/20/15

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This is a totally brutal slate. You have the Spurs and Nuggets who jack their guys minutes around like crazy (albeit for different reasons), the Thunder who have two top end guys and a bunch of spare parts, and the Heat who don't have much that you feel safe playing. If you were ever going to take a night off, this might be the one to do it.

Top Plays

Russell Westbrook - FD 10600 DK 10200 DFSTR 8300
If I had to take just one big money player today it would be Westbrook. And yes, I know when I am saying that I am essentially choosing between him and Durant. It's not easy to choose of course. And I didn't want to just give you both guys because that would be too easy. Our system has Westbrook as a clear points/$ favorite over KD. Miami has been torched by point guards this season in the scoring department with opponents scoring at 5% more than league average from the position. Westbrook is of course other-worldly and should be able to dust whoever the Heat put on him. Meanwhile, Miami and Deng have been above average against small forwards. I get that this isn't always a perfect way to determine value as dudes like Durant and Westbrook are much more than just static position players. But I do think Westbrook has the better part of the matchup and there are other small forward options whereas point guard is very thin.

Tim Duncan - FD 8200 DK 8500 DFSTR 8000
It's always weird getting bigger money in on a guy like Duncan considering the Spurs' tendency to just sit their starters or play them reduced minutes. But on the short slate I think I can make the case for Duncan here. For starters, this is a one and done for the Spurs. Their big minutes question marks come on back-to-backs. I think Duncan plays his thirty minutes. And if that is the case then he is getting run against a Denver team that allows worse than average scoring to opposing power forwards. The game in Denver has me thinking the Nuggets can possibly keep it closer and I think you will get money in good against those scared off by Duncan getting Pop'd.

Kawhi Leonard - FD 7800 DK 7400 DFSTR 6300
Wilson Chandler - FD 5600 DK 5600 DFSTR 4900
These are the two reasons I think you can somewhat safely avoid Durant tonight. They will line up against each other and while Kawhi is obviously the much better of the two (and the more expensive) their low tags plus locked in minutes make me feel as comfortable as I can getting away from KD. Again, it's not easy fading a guy like Durant. But this is about positional scarcity and upside. Having two solid small forward options makes things just a little bit easier. Chandler's price has fallen in the short term thanks to three bad shooting games in a row. He's very much in play at these prices and Kawhi hasn't missed a beat since coming back from injury.

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The Center Carousel

Now that Bosh has been moved to a PF on FanDuel, that site doesn't have a center listed for more than $5,500. That has to be some kind of record no matter the slate. On DraftKings and Draftster it's a little different as on the former you can roll Bosh (though I probably won't) and the latter has multi-position eligibility. What you are stuck with then is a bevy of high-risk cheap guys who have a whole host of question marks that mainly revolve around playing time. It's pretty amazing really in that just about every center on this slate plays between 17-23 minutes, has moments where they go off, other games where they completely disappear and you are going to be stuck spinning the roulette wheel and hoping for the best. My suggestion would be to construct the rest of your lineups and mix and match the center money in at the end.

Odds and Ends

If Dwayne Wade sits out again tonight (it does appear he'll play) you can consider playing Shabazz Napier and Mario Chalmers.

It's worth noting that in his last four games (and basically since joining the Thunder) Dion Waiters has shot about 50% from the field. This is significantly higher than his 42% career numbers. Not to say he'll regress in this one game, but his price has come up in the short term thanks to a nice run. Buyer beware here. The volume of shots is for sure encouraging in his new home. But Miami defend shooting guards really well and depresses scoring to that position.

He stunk yesterday but I'm still liking J.J. Hickson on this price.

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