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Russell Westbrook - FD 10600 DK 10200 DFSTR 8300
On a short slate, getting the right big money guy in is basically life or death. On tonight's slate? That looks like Westbrook. I don't think I've ever seen a line like 17/15/17 with 4 steals that he put up against the Warriors - who were second at preventing fantasy points to opposing PGs before Westbrook got his hands on them. So what can he do against the Magic's 26th ranked PG defense? Is "the sky's the limit" a dopey cliche? Because it really is. I don't think 60 fantasy points is a likelihood, but he seems the safest guy for my money to put up 5x at these high prices.
Elfrid Payton - FD 5300 DK 5300 DFSTR 4600
PG value is kinda sick for such a short slate. For some reason, the daily fantasy basketball sites ignore guys like Payton, whose situation and production can turn on a dime as his skills develop and his team figures out how to use him. These prices have begun to be simply stupid. He's put up 8x and change, 6x, and 5x in his last 3 games, and it looks pretty sustainable to me. He's a great rebounder for the position, and his defensive skills are translating wonderfully to the NBA. OKC has actually allowed the 6th most scoring to fantasy PGs this season, so this could be another great game for the Magic rookie.
Also considered: Trey Burke. As predicted, he bounced back back from a few unspectacular performances against bad match-ups to put up 5x on this price against the Lakers. It's a tougher match-up with San Antonio, but Burke has been pretty safe on this price regardless of match-up since Burks went down.
Victor Oladipo - FD 7100 DK 6800 DFSTR 6200
I imagine he'll be the top recommendation in many places, and for good reason. Victor crushed these prices in tough match-ups with the Bulls and Rockets (2nd and 9th against opposing PGs), and gets a far more favorable match-up against the Thunder (though they aren't slouches necessarily). Either way, the Magic SG has been playing 37+ minutes per night and making good on his incredible physical gifts.
Tyreke Evans - FD 7700 DK 8300 DFSTR 7300
Eric Gordon - FD 4800 DK 5300 DFSTR 4400
Tyreke ruined everyone's night on Friday, but if Holiday is out, these are my next two best plays at shooting guard tonight. Tyreke's projections are a little off since he'll be playing PG against Toronto (where they've allowed the 10th most Fantasy Points to opposing PGs), and Gordon will take on their league average SG defense. Both are underpriced relative to their production potential, and should see big minutes and a relatively safe output. Last game not-withstanding, for Tyreke.
Also considered: Manu. He's buried this price the last two nights, and our projection system likes him. Seems weird to play a guy who plays 22-23 minutes, but it could pay off.
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Gordon Hayward - FD 7300 DK 7800 DFSTR 6900
Well, Hayward was our top recommendation on Friday, and he absolutely blew the Lakers out of the water to the tune of 31/3/7. As I pointed out before that game - Hayward's minutes are absolutely reliable if the Jazz can hang. The X-factor here is Leonard, of course. He theoretically has the skills to take Hayward out of the game - but on a short slate with not a lot of great plays at SF, you may just have to grin and bear it and hope Hayward pays value while acknowledging that he might not absolutely go off.
Kevin Durant - FD 10600 DK 10700 DFSTR 8600
The Durantula's minutes are fully back. While a blow-out is in play, I don't think you can pinch your pennies on such a short slate. Durant and Westbrook are clicking like crazy at the moment, chewing up tons of usage and delivering for OKC. With Tobias Harris likely out again, that will leave Channing Frye? to cover Durant. He can't. Durant is going to go off yet again, and I think he'll pay whether he plays 3 quarters or 4.
It's a weird position tonight.Quincy Pondexter, who's been getting a lot of run with Davis banged up.
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Power forward is sort of the anti-small forward tonight. Lots of great options here.
Ryan Anderson - FD 5500 DK 5700 DFSTR 4300
If Davis is out again, Anderson rockets up the charts. He'll have off shooting nights to be sure, but the performance we saw against Philly will definitely be the exception rather than the rule. Toronto's certainly not a better match-up, but like Tyreke, getting a value like this combined with the likelihood that he's not played quite as heavily makes him an easy must-play for me if Davis is out. Have a long memory in the NBA - not a short one - if you want to crush DFS basketball.
Channing Frye - FD 3900 DK 4500 DFSTR 4100
On a short slate with some great big money options, you'll need to save somewhere. To me? That's looking like Channing Icabod Frye. He's been playing 37 freaking minutes per game with Harris out, and has paid between 5x-8x on his FanDuel price in that time. Why the hell hasn't his price risen? Laziness? Lack of attention from the sites? Who knows. But he's the easiest of the easy punt plays if Harris is out once again, regardless of a tough match-up with OKC's big men.
Also considered: This looks a lot like a position I'll go cheap at tonight, but if the money works out so you have money to spend, Tim Duncan and Serge Ibaka look like reasonable plays.
Nobody
Playing nobody at center tonight looks like the best play by far. So just leave it blank and spend up elsewhere.
Hmm, it's giving me a lineup error message. One sec.
Omer Asik - FD 4700 DK 4500 DFSTR 5100
It really is a brutal night for centers. Why do I like Asik? Well, he's been solidly in the 5x range on this FanDuel price the last few days, and he's cheap. There are actually a lot of good options at other positions tonight, so I'd love to escape this position relatively unscathed. Toronto's basically league average at allowing fantasy points to opposing centers, so there's nothing to see there - I'll just play Asik and hope for the best.
Also considered: Kanter? Adams? Jesus, this position is horrible.
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Here are my picks for tonight's games.
Payton, Ginobili, Durant, Frye, Gobert, Waiters, Ibaka, Leonard.
http://www.dailyfantasysportslineup.com/draftkings-nba-picks-jan-18-2015/