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Andrew Luck
I’m only putting one quarterback on the list this week because I think Luck stands out above the rest of the group in terms of passing touchdowns. Our system thinks you are basically rolling the dice with the other three. Luck throws the most of the group, has the most passing touchdowns on the season and works in an offense that’s content to throw the ball a ton in the red zone. The last piece is the key. The Colts air it out when they get close and because of it Luck stands the highest TD expectation on the day. It helps a little more that Vegas thinks the Colts will be playing from behind in this one. Now, Luck hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game since November 30th. That’s a minor concern. The Patriots were a middle of the pack team against the pass this season both in terms of average yards per game and average yards per attempt. They aren’t elite, but don’t stink either. I think the volume is what gets Luck there in this game and three touchdown passes is a totally reasonable expectation.
Daniel Herron
He is the top expected total yardage guy in our system this week and it isn’t particularly close. The Colts sent a clear statement about game plan last week with Herron. In an effort to keep control of the ball and keep the rock out of a high-powered offense’s hands, they ran Herron 23 times over the course of the game. Of course it helped that they were leading the game and could afford to play some ball control late. But Herron is the clear number one back here and there’s reason to believe they will want to take a similar approach against the Pats rather than getting into a total shootout. Herron tops out the list because of what he does on the ground but also really raises the bar because of how much Luck looks his way in the passing game. He had eight catches last week and ten the week before. That’s some high volume all around. I’m going for it with Herron on ScoreStreak this week and putting him
Marshawn Lynch
This second spot is a little tougher. I (and our system) am inclined to go with Lynch here for a simple reason: no other player going this week stands to see the ball as much as Skittles. He faces a Packer defense ranked 23rd in total rushing yards allowed this season and should see the bulk of carries in this one. I suspect the Seahawks will be happy to pound the ball on offense in an effort to just keep the Packer offense off the field, and let the Seattle D do work for bits and pieces throughout. I am not over the moon excited about the yardage expectation here and would think about just putting him in the third slot. But he should definitely be in your top three.
Julian Edelman
Rob Gronkowski
As many an NFL coach has learned over the years, it’s nearly impossible to predict the Patriots’ gameplan on a week-to-week basis. That’s why they are so freaking good. They think outside the box, don’t get overly committed to one strategy and just keep other teams off balance. Case in point: last week they just completely abandoned the running game early and Brady threw the ball a whopping fifty times. That was his fourth highest total on the season. Now I think that they go to the air again this week, mostly because they have the weapons to do so. But there’s the other issue of the last time they faced the Colts. You remember that one. It’s when Jonas Gray came out of nowhere, rushed for 201 yards and basically never did anything ever again. The Pats are good like that. This is all to say, that in a must-win game, it stands to reason they will do what they do best. Allow Brady the chance to make quick, high-efficiency passes en lieu of the running attack. And if that is the case, Edelman and Gronk are his two biggest targets. They had 14 and 13 targets respectively for 7 and 8 catches. That’s enough to put them in the second two groups this week and call it day. I’m not totally positive one of them hits 11. I don’t think anyone is a favorite for that on this slate. But these guys are the target monsters you want to look out for.
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