Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/16/15

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Point Guard

Mo Williams - FD 6200 DK 5800 DFSTR 5100
Over-reaction theater? Or a solid value play? Well, Doug gave you Mo Williams right before he put up 52 on the Pacers, so we're not trying to jump in front of any parades here. Our projection system doesn't even know Mo put up 52 against them, no. But it does know Mo. What does it know about Mo? It knows Mo is playing minutes, and he's the main offensive weapon the Wolves are sporting at present time. Phoenix has been basically league average against PGs this season, but Mo's price is still wrong if he's going to be in the high 30s of minutes per game at this usage rate.

Trey Burke - FD 6000 DK 5500 DFSTR
Burke saw a big spike in production when Alec Burks went down, but his production has leveled off to a more sustainable level since. That sustained level has seen him just missing value on this price basically every night. So what's different about tonight? The opponent, of course. The Lakers have allowed a dismal 25% more scoring to opposing point guards this season, and Burke will obviously be the primary beneficiary of their defensive ineptitude. Should be a great night for him unless everything goes terribly wrong.

Derrick Rose - FD 6800 DK 6600 DFSTR 6100
The industry is down on Rose after getting snake-bit by him earlier this season, but if you've paid attention to what he's done since returning from injury, you've been pleasantly surprised. He's paid high 4x and 5x+ on this FanDuel price so far, and few in the industry have taken note. Boston has allowed greater than a league average number of fantasy points to opposing PGs this year, and our projection system positively loves Rose on this price if he is going to play 30+ minutes here.

Chris Paul - FD 10000 DK 9700 DFSTR 8500
Paul will likely be a huge start on a night where I'm sure punts will be in abundance. The reasons are simple: Kyrie's defense is as bad as advertised (though Hoopsstats has the Cavs clawing back up to being only the 10th worst team against PGs this year), and Paul should be able to drive the lane and wreak havoc in there. Our projection system actually prefers Russell Westbrook in the "big money PG" department, so I'm straying a little bit here. Why? Well, it's a question of upside. Golden State is terrific against PGs, and while Westbrook could still pay value, I have a hard time seeing him going off. Paul, on the other hand, could put up 20+ with 15+ assists in this one and it wouldn't shock me a bit.

Punt possibility: Why not CJ Watson? Getting a guy who gets 30+ minutes of run with the ball in his hands for $4,500 isn't the easiest thing in the world to do. Does he suck? Kinda. But that doesn't mean he can't give you 6x on this FanDuel price.

Keep an eye out for: The Jrue Holiday situation. An ideal match-up against the Sixers, but he's considered day to day with an ankle. If he sits, give a big boost to Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon at the SG position.
 

Shooting Guard

Tyreke Evans - FD 7700 DK 7900 DFSTR
I mentioned that I'd consider Tyreke depending on Holiday's status, but our projection system frankly loves him either way. Even on a modest 33 minutes, it has Evans being the best shooting guard play of the day against the hapless Sixers' defense. Bump that to the high 40s that Evans has seen with Holiday out, AND factor in the increased usage? You have the no-brainer of the year. Don't sweat the blow-out: play Tyreke in all formats.

Bradley Beal - FD 6400 DK 6100 DFSTR 5700
I'm not sure how many times I've ever recommended Beal in this space, which is weird, because I just love the dude's game. Well, not that weird, I guess, because guys with likable games tend to be overpriced. Unlike many SGs, Beal does a lot of things well. He rebounds the position, can dish it to others, and is a good bet for contributions on the defensive end as well. You've got to love the minutes security, and the production has really followed recently, with Beal paying value or approaching it in each of his last four games. But why do we like Beal in particular on this night? Brooklyn's horrid shooting guard defense. On a per minute basis this year they've been the very most generous team to opposing SGs. Beal should crush tonight, and gets the green light in all formats.

J.R. Smith - FD 6100 DK 4600 DFSTR 4300
For my last SG slot, I'm going to go with one JR Smith. For better or worse, Smith is the starting 2 guard, and the Cavs lack of wing depth means he's been playing as many as 40+ minutes a game. Our projection system has him at 35 minutes right now, and he should be able to produce against whichever of the Clippers wings tries to guard him. The Clips have no natural defender for LeBron, so they're going to have to pile on him - which should leave Smith with a healthy amount of looks and production.

Also considered: Kyle Korver, for safety. Lou Williams for GPPs.

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Small Forward

K.J. McDaniels - FD 4700 DK 5100 DFSTR 4200
I know, it's the Sixers. But hear me out. KJ has been wreaking havoc with his 14 foot wingspan recently, and the minutes are looking positively stable. The Sixers get blown out every game, so they're content to get him his 33 minutes regardless. If he does get those minutes, he'll get them against a Pelicans team that is playing Tyreke out of position, and has allowed the 2nd most points per minute to opposing small forwards this season. Has all the makings of another 5x-6x points per dollar performance for McDaniels.

Andrew Wiggins - FD 7300 DK 6900 DFSTR 5200
Isn't "getting Wiggy with it" a thing? Feels like it should be. If not, you heard it here first. Anywho, Andrew Wiggins. This young gentleman/former scholar is playing absurd minutes on a team with no present that wants to watch their rookie produce. And wants to stick it to Kevin Love and the Cavs. Wiggins has cooled off slightly after a long stretch where he was posting 4.5x on this price every single night, but that should all change this evening. He'll draw Phoenix, whose fast pace and terrible defense at the position has allowed the most points to opposing small forwards this season. Dream spot for the Rook, and I think he goes off.

Gordon Hayward - FD 7300 DK 7700 DFSTR 6900
Hayward played reduced minutes in his last two contests, presumably due to the fact that his team was busy getting blown out. Against the Lakers? That shouldn't theoretically be much of a problem. Before the last two contests Hayward was comfortably settled in at 35 minutes per game, and had paid ~5x on this FanDuel price in three straight games before running up against two tough match-ups. Looking for a big bounce-back in this one.

LeBron James - FD 10600 DK 10700 DFSTR 4900
If you do find a way to get some big money guys going tonight, LeBron looks for all the world like the dude you're going to want. As I mentioned in the shooting guard section, the Clippers have no one who can naturally defend this position, much less the best player at the position, much less the best player in the world at any position. I'm writing this before the Lakers game has started, but LeBron dispelled any of my fears in his first game back, and I think he eviscerates whoever the Clippers send as a token defender in his direction.

Power Forward

Anthony Davis - FD 11100 DK 11200 DFSTR 9000
I may have jumped the gun by recommending LeBron as the top big money play tonight. Philly is truly awful against opposing power forwards, and the world class Davis has been logging incredible minutes and putting up likewise insane production. The one X factor here is this weird toe injury. If the Pels decide they can hang in this one without Davis, Ryan Anderson becomes the no-brainer play of the year. Either way, play some Pelicans power forward in this contest.

Derrick Favors - FD 7800 DK 7900 DFSTR
Another man with a fantastic match-up, and another guy who tends to rise to the occasion to squash awful teams. While Favors had been well established as a GPP only guy for a while, he's managed to reign in the foul trouble recently, and has paid 5x on this price in 4 of his last 5 games. Facing the Lakers as a power forward happens to be one of the best situations a player can be in. Do you see where this is headed? Play the man.

Jared Sullinger - FD 6600 DK 6700 DFSTR 6200
Underrated stat alert: Chicago has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per minute to opposing power forwards this year. I suppose it's because they defend so many other positions quite well that a lot of offenses will choose to attack the less than nimble Gasol. Well, given that Sullinger is also Boston's most reliable scoring option, this could make for an interesting night. The most convincing stat to me was seeing that Chicago is getting KILLED on the glass by power forwards - ranking dead last in the category by a half a rebound per 48 minutes to Detroit. So, Sullinger is looking like a pretty good option to me.

J.J. Hickson - FD 4500 DK 4500 DFSTR 4500
It always feel semi-unsexy to play a guy who only plays low to mid 20s minutes per game, but with Mozgov gone, Hickson's resume is speaking for itself. Paying this price is looking like an inevitability at the moment, and what I really love about him is that these minutes are his floor. If Denver gets blown out in Dallas (and they very well could), Hickson could see a 20% bump in minutes with no problem whatsoever. If that happens, you're looking at a potential monster.

Center

Rudy Gobert - FD 6500 DK 6200 DFSTR 4600
Gobert is playing 35+ minutes per game, and his incredible physical gifts have translated. He's put up 5x-6x+ on this price against some great centers: Dwight, Noah, the OKC combo - so this match-up with the Lakers? A match made in Heaven. Anything is possible here. I think he's a lock for 35 fantasy points with room for more against one of the league's most generous defenses for opposing centers.

Hassan Whiteside - FD 5700 DK 6000 DFSTR 3300
Mister Whiteside has seen his price climb dramatically after his earth-shattering breakout against the Clips and subsequent solid performances thereafter. If you think he's going to keep playing high 20s in minutes, it seems absolutely insane to not start the guy independent of match-up. One has to think Boogie will go all out to stop the buzz-worthy rookie, but Whiteside's physical gifts give him such a high floor that it might not matter. The only danger here is foul trouble, I guess, but it's hard to imagine him not slamming home alley-oops as usual.

A huge mess of guys: After these guys, our projection system has a big collection of dudes who are pretty similar. You can try out a free trial if you want to peek behind the curtain.

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