Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/15/15

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It’s an odd day in the NBA as there is the early, 3:30 game between the Knicks and the Bucks in London and then two games in the evening. This will be an abbreviated picks column because of it. The early slate has me worried on sites like FanDuel that don’t allow late swaps (it’s an eternity between the early game and evening slate).

I’ll focus mainly on the evening games as I think those are a little easier to break down, but will give a couple of quick thoughts on the Knicks and Bucks guys as well.

Early Game

The Knicks are an utter mess right now and there rotations make it a little tough to find value. That’s mostly because they consistently get blown out and subsequently the minutes are all over the place. Combine that with not knowing if Carmelo is going to play (or how much) and you have a total mess. If playing the early slate I would consider Cole Aldrich. But beyond that it’s really buyer beware. There will certainly be some guys who hit value for them (they are all so cheap because again, they suck) but parsing it out ahead of time is super dicey.

On the Bucks’ side, we have some of the same uncertainty but for a slightly different reasons. Jason Kidd yanks around minutes like crazy, making the “safety” on some guys anything but implied. I would definitely consider Zaza Pachulia and Giannis Antetokounmpo but the minutes have dipped in the short term. Khris Middleton is intriguing but again, the run isn’t locked in. This is all mostly to say that this early slate feels like a total stay away for me.

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Evening Slate Big Money

Fair warning: This slate isn’t exactly the most ripe with value. This is for a couple of reasons. One is that you are going to need to have major exposure to the Cavaliers whose two best players will cost you a pretty penny. The Lakers are a tough team to get money in on because they really spread out the minutes. The Thunder have two top end talents and then a bunch of spare parts who are tough to get a read on. It’s a weird one with a ton of superstars playing and very few ways to make effective lineups unless some kind of punt play emerges throughout the day. Which isn’t terribly likely.

Kyrie Irving - FD 8500 DK 9000 DFSTR 6800
Had a horrendous game against the Suns thanks to a poor shooting performance and an ungodly eight turnovers. Don’t expect a repeat and I’m looking for him to bounce back against the Lakers who get shredded by opposing point guards. In fact, the Lakers are the perfect team to cure whatever is ailing opposing point guards. They are by far the worst in the league at defending the position as they allow a crazy 24% more scoring than league average to the position. No other team is anywhere close to as bad in keeping point guards away from the rim. I’m all over Irving today on this short slate and think he represents the best value for the dollar on the day. He will be in 100% of my lineups.

LeBron James - FD 10600 DK 10700 DFSTR 3000
Kevin Durant - FD 10700 DK 10700 DFSTR 8900
It’s not a cop out, but our system has these two guys for nearly identical production and points/$ multipliers today. You can use them interchangeably and I might even advocate that strategy on FanDuel is you build a lineup that allows even the slimmest of wiggle room. They are that close that trying to make a clear distinction in their expectation today isn’t something I can/want to do. But on FanDuel, this is where you can begin spending the bigger bucks. It’s a little different on Draftster where Lebron is still a minimum-priced player because their algorithm bottoms out prices when a player is injured. LBJ is the no-brainer over there. And finally, over on DraftKings I’d probably take Russell Westbrook at the comparative discount.

Evening Slate Bargains

These are a little fewer and farther between
Dion Waiters - FD 5200 DK 4000 DFSTR 4300
J.R. Smith - FD 6100 DK 4600 DFSTR 4300
You are going to have to start someone (or gulp, two guys) at shooting guard tonight. I don’t think I’d be paying all the way up for Harden or Kobe which leaves you a bit stuck. I don’t particularly like either of these guys. But they should each play more than 25 minutes and won’t completely crush your cap. Neither is anything close to safe, but that’s the story with this slate of games.

Donatas Motiejunas - FD 5500 DK 5200 DFSTR 3600
Josh Smith - FD 6100 DK 5700 DFSTR 7000
Even with Smoove’s arrival, Donatas is still playing major minutes for the Rockets as they are running sets with the two of them on the court. On FanDuel I’d probably seriously consider playing these guys together. Smoove is getting enough run and both are fairly/ underpriced for their production. OKC has actual had a lot of trouble this year keeping opposing power forwards from scoring. They are allowing 15% more scoring than league average to the position.

At center hold your nose and play Timofey Mozgov or possibly Jordan Hill

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