Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/9/15

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Point Guard

Jarrett Jack - FD 5900 DK 6400 DFSTR 4900
Deron Williams is out tomorrow, and when he is, Jack plays a ton of minutes. What makes him the top overall point guard tonight is the combination of these minutes and the opponent. Philly has allowed the 2nd most points to opposing point guards this season, which should make this a match-up made in Heaven.

Elfrid Payton - FD 5300 DK 5300 DFSTR 4600
It's shaping up to be a night to go cheap at PG. The reason? The Lakers and Sixers happen to be playing teams with cheap point guards. Payton's been great recently, posting 9x and nearly 5x this FanDuel price in his last three games. What you've really got to love about Payton is the all around production. In his last game he managed just 2 points scored, but put up 25 fantasy points on the back of his excellent rebounding and steals skills, which pair nicely with his above average passing. He makes for a particularly great match-up with the Lakers, too, because Orlando is probably not good enough to utterly soul-crush them. You might find a reason to spend up today. But me? I'm going cheap.

Mo Williams - FD 5500 DK 5500 DFSTR 4800
The cheap PG carousel continues! Mo's minutes are looking a lot more steady these days, and he put up a Chris-Paul-esque 23/3/11 against Phoenix a couple of nights ago. The Bucks are a significantly tougher match-up for opposing PGs, but Williams has the ball in his hands so much that I doubt it will matter - at least at these prices. I'll say this a few times tonight, I imagine, but Williams is simply a guy who's priced wrong if these are the minutes he's going to play.
Editor's note: Monitor Mo's status as it gets closer to game time. He sprained his ankle late his last time out, and no one really knows the severity as of this writing. Zach LaVine becomes an interesting play if Mo sits.

Also considered: Our projection system loves Derrick Rose, but you'll forgive me for being a little gun-shy after the way he's been shooting recently. If spending is your thing, our projection system doesn't hate Russell Westbrook. But the cheap guys are so elite that I'll probably look elsewhere.

Shooting Guard

Victor Oladipo - FD 6600 DK 6100 DFSTR 6000
Now that the Magic have somewhat sorted out their rotation, guys like Victor Oladipo are really rising to the top of the fantasy pile. This match-up is particularly amazing for Oladipo because of LA's fast pace. He'll have more opportunity to generate his elite steals, and should compile a nice point total against a defensively indifferent Kobe Bryant. Great for all formats, this one.

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 6200 DK 6600 DFSTR 5700
I am listing him here partially to let you know that Jason Kidd personally cost me $28,500 by not playing Giannis in the 2nd half 2 nights ago. I was in 9th place in the FanDuel Slam, finished 7 points out of first, and no one above me had him. /beat. For real, though. There's no news on why he was benched, so one has to imagine it was just a #bucks thing and that Kidd just wanted to give him a breather in a blow-out. Before last game, the Greek Freak was one of the most consistent fantasy shooting guards in the game, paying 5-6x on this FanDuel price with regularity. Minny allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing SGs, so this should be a great spot to take him.

Joe Johnson - FD 6900 DK 6300 DFSTR 5700
If safety is your thing, consider Joe Johnson. Williams being out means a boost in usage for Johnson, and the match-up with Philly is obviously elite. They're only the third most generous team to opposing SGs, but Johnson should be able to make it work.

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Small Forward

Khris Middleton - FD 5200 DK 4800 DFSTR 3800
#bucks! Middleton is one of the most fun guys in daily fantasy basketball to root for when he's right, and right now, he's right. I just wrote right a lot. I like to write right. Right? Right. Middleton's high-energy game seems to be clicking with Kidd's coaching style - he played the first 12 minutes of the Philly blowout - and he's been playing 30+ minutes with regularity. The Muhammad/Wiggins combo hasn't done a whole lot to hold down opposing SFs this season, as they're 5th worst against the position on the season. I like him for safety and upside.

Andrew Wiggins - FD 6900 DK 6600 DFSTR 5500
Man, Wiggins has turned into a fun player to watch pretty darned early in his young career. Is the Kevin Love trade awkward yet? Wiggins is showing all the promise in the world, using his 6'8'' frame to wreak havoc and create mismatches on both ends of the floor. And he's getting all the coach love he can handle - playing 37-41 excellent minutes per night. And now he gets the Bucks and their 7th worse SF defense? Could be the highest guy at the position, and seems as safe as safe can be.

Wilson Chandler - FD 5600 DK 5700 DFSTR 5200
As usual, small forward is a little bit tough today. Chandler? He strikes me as a great cash game play. In case you're a new reader, we value one thing above all else for our cash game/double up purposes: minutes security. And Chandler has that in spades. I'm frankly not worried about the recent decline in production - a lot of that can be contributed to FG% variance, rather than a skills decline. I don't really love him for upside - even in the games where he was shooting 20 times he was only paying 5x on this price - but I think he'll match up well with Gay and the Kings' 8th worst SF defense.

Power Forward

Tristan Thompson - FD 6500 DK 6700 DFSTR 5400
Foul trouble robbed us of a better Tristan Thompson game the last time around, but I'm a lot more bullish on him this time around. With a lot of big men, fouls and foul trouble are a part of the equation, but Thompson has averaged fewer than 3 fouls per 36 minutes for his career. And Golden State doesn't bang the ball down low quite as much as many teams do. The Warriors are about league average against opposing PFs, and I still think we're getting a great buying opportunity on Thompson before his price climbs 10-15% as these minutes stick.

Paul Millsap - FD 8300 DK 8600 DFSTR 7800
With a lot of great value on a bigger slate, it might prove tough to get a lot of money in the middle of the table with good value. I think Millsap is a great spot to pay up. I don't see a lot of obvious cheap value at PF, and Millsap has been rock-solid in his last 10 games, with just his last game against the Grizzlies' bruising front court standing out as a disaster. Otherwise he's a pretty solid bet for 4-5x on most nights, and Detroit's in the bottom 1/3 of the league against PFs.

David West - FD 6400 DK 6300 DFSTR 6000
Serge Ibaka - FD 7100 DK 6400 DFSTR 6600
I put these guys together because of the price similarity, but they're to be deployed differently. I like West in cash games against a Boston team that's in the bottom of the league when it comes to defending opposing PFs, but I don't think he'll post a monster. A guy that could, though? Ibaka. He posted an absurd 8 block outing his last time out, and I see no real reason for the temporary dip in boards. I don't love the safety because, well, he hasn't been safe recently - but anything's possible if he's going to be out of his mind defensively.

Also considered: Greg Monroe, of course. The minutes getting jerked all over scares me for safety, but the upside is undeniable.

Sleeper Central: JJ Hickson! You may wind up having to spend at PF tonight to make the money work, but don't ignore what JJ did in 30 minutes with Mozgov gone. He's filled it up in the past with starters minutes, so this could be a thing.

Center

Jusuf Nurkic - FD 5000 DK 5600 DFSTR 3200
Nurkic disappointed on his lofty expectations in the first game with Mozgov gone, but don't give up, dear reader. The fiery Bosnian is a literal blocks machine, and will do enough to pay on off shooting nights on basement prices like these. There will be games where he plays 30 minutes, and even if he plays 22, he is a very safe option on a $5k FanDuel price tag.

Zaza Pachulia - FD 5500 DK 5900 DFSTR 4200
While the $5k centers du jour have come and gone (Aldrich, Gobert, now Nurkic), Zaza has chugged along happily in the absence of Larry Sanders. He puts up 6x this price with regularity, and while Dieng has held opposing centers down nicely this season, Zaza's price is just downright wrong.

Also considered: A lot of centers kind of just look the same, to me. But for a price differential, look at Marc Gasol. On a night to night basis, he's one of the safer 9k investments out there.

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