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Peyton Manning
Andrew Luck
I’m including these two guys as the top two in terms of passing touchdown expectations for a couple of reasons. The first is obvious: they rank one and two over the course of the season for passing touchdowns. If prior practice is any indication of future performance (which it isn’t obviously, but in this case I’ll take it) then why not get money in on the two guys who throw it into the end zone the most? (It should be said that Rodgers is in third but only by one passing TD.) The other piece that has these two as the top plays rather than Discount Double Check is the flow of this game should lend itself to a high-scoring affair. Vegas has the over/under at 54, the highest on the day with the Broncos giving seven. With the most points projected and two teams that really enjoy throwing in the red zone, then you are going to get your most passing TDs here. Slot them in as one and two in your ScoreStreak squads and then start hoping for a shootout.
Demarco Murray
All-purpose yards is tough this week. With so few teams going and those teams that are often choosing to spread their fantasy love all over the squad, you are left with very limited options in terms of big yardage upside. To start, I wouldn’t feel confident putting anyone in the highest slot because no one is close to a favorite to get there. Even the second slot, frankly, seems dicey. I’ll take Murray as the highest projection simply because he, among any other player on this slate, should touch the ball the most. That ideas alone is worth it. The Cowboys will need to rely on Murray to carry the load in order to keep the ball out of the hands of Rodgers and company. Green Bay allowed 4.3 yards per carry during the regular season so it isn’t as if they are a stout run defense. And Murray was able to put up 97 yards against a much more formidable Lions’ D last week. Again, I’m not comfortable with the ultimate upside but he’s as safe as it comes in terms of yardage this week.
CJ Anderson
After Murray it gets real weird, real quick. I don’t feel great about any of the options. Every team has serious question marks when it comes to who is going to handle the ball. Most squads spread it around in a number of different ways. Even Anderson gave up some run duties late in the season. But I’m banking that as more a conservation ploy by the Broncos than an actual strategy. What helps Anderson is that he can be heavily involved in the passing game. He had two games this season with 8 catches and is good for a few looks out of the backfield in each one. That definitely helps keep his floor a little higher than some of the other backs. We are just hoping Ronnie Hillman doesn’t see the field.
Demaryius Thomas
Through sixteen games this season Thomas saw single digit targets exactly four times. The rest of the time dude was getting looked at early and often. In seven of his games he saw 12 or more targets and had double-digit catches three times. He is slightly above Edelman for me because of the volume and the volume. While Thomas saw a ton of targets this season, he just didn’t convert them at nearly the same rate. While Edelman converted 68% of his targets, Thomas sat in at only about 60%. But the volume for Demaryius is a real thing and makes up quite a bit for his lack in efficiency.
Julian Edelman
I mentioned him above so it wasn’t really a big reveal to throw Edelman here in this slot. With him coming back from the concussion I expect him to go right back as Brady’s safety valve in this offense. Because yardage isn’t a huge concern for us in this format, only the receptions, I can take Edelman for that second slot and feel pretty comfortable with it. There are a few other guys I would strongly consider here like Jordy Nelson and TY Hilton, but I think you get some separation on Edelman because it just doesn’t seem as sexy to take the guy.
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