Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 19 - FanDuel, DraftKings, and Draftster

Round 2! The Wild Card round featured a wild war of attrition, with a lot of big names taking the week off, and essentially nobody really going off. What will round 2 hold? Who knows? But we are here to offer you our best guess.

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Quarterbacks

Tom Brady - FD 9100 DK 7800 DD 13800 DFSTR
It's an interesting week for quarterbacks. Our projection system likes a lot of QBs to be about similar, and thinks it's tough to go too wrong as long as you aren't playing Cam Newton or Joe Flacco, basically. So why do I put Brady atop my personal list? Well, for one thing, I'm ruling out Aaron Rodgers (the top guy in our system) because of the weather. If it's going to be 9-15 degrees out and possibly snowing, I can't play any QB in the game. That's too bad, because Dallas has given up the most passing yards of any team still remaining in the playoffs. But 2nd worse? The Ravens. The Ravens allowed the 9th most passing yards in the NFL this year, and their stout run defense means the Pats will likely keep throwing even when they get up. With a couple of weeks to get healthy, Brady's assortment of weapons (notably Gronk and Edelman) should be firing on all cylinders to make this a weekend to remember in Foxboro.

Andrew Luck - FD 9600 DK 8700 DD 14550 DFSTR
I really struggled to pin any one quarterback down for this second slot, but I'm going with Luck. Here's why. First of all, I think his opportunity is the most secure of any of the big name QBs this week. While our projection system likes Manning, it's slightly unaware of his current potential weak-arm disease. However, the Denver offense should still be able to do enough to stay out in front of the Colts, which means Luck, Luck, and more Luck. And the most reassuring thing? The Colts look happy to transfer a lot of their running projection into the short passing game, as evidenced by the 10 targets aimed Boom Herron's way last week. Luck fared decently against the Broncos in their first meeting - putting up 370 yards and 2 touch downs - though his upside was limited due to two picks. All that said, the weather in Denver looks pretty decent to me, and I think we'll see Luck throw for a bunch of yards once again.

Also considered: Our projection system likes Russell Wilson, whom I think you can absolutely consider for his upside. One has to think that Seattle won't pull any punches in trying to win this game, which could mean more running from Russell - the downside here is that Carolina can't do anything at all on offense, leaving most of this game in Lynch's hands.

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Running Backs

Dan Herron - FD 6100 DK 5300 DD 10850 DFSTR
In short weeks like these, you're going to need to find value somewhere to get any elite guys whatsoever into your lineup. Enter one Daniel "Boom" Herron. Embarrassingly, I missed on recommending Herron last week, even though the news of Richardson's absence made me wind up playing him. But I shouldn't have needed that indicator - it looked for all the world like the Colts were saving their smaller but more talented backs (first Bradshaw, then Herron) and putting miles on Richardson during the season, and that's exactly what they did. Herron touched the ball 22 times en route to 141 total yards and a touch down, and was the Wild Card round's most productive back. The only risk here, I suppose, is that the Colts trail early and need to play catch-up - but I'm fairly confident that Herron's receiving totals at the very least are secure, and that he'll be the week's highest points-per-dollar guy again even against a very tough Broncos run defense.

DeMarco Murray - FD 8900 DK 8400 DD 14450 DFSTR
If you want safety, look no further. The weather in Green Bay this weekend is supposed to be TERRIBLE. Like legendarily terrible - negative wind chills, snow, the whole bit. While Romo led a nice come back against Detroit, the Cowboys are going to want to keep this one on the ground to try and take on Green Bay's run defense, which happens to be the run defense that's allowed more yards than any other left in the playoffs. I think Murray will get 30+ touches, and if the Cowboys don't get blown off the field (which again, will be tough considering the weather), Murray puts up a very safe total with plenty of upside as well.

C.J. Anderson - FD 8700 DK 7600 DD 13150 DFSTR
Anderson turned into one of the safest backs on planet Earth down the stretch for the Broncos, posting 23.8 or more fantasy points in 6 of his last 8 outings. That's just phenomenal. While the Colts didn't allow a huge rushing total this season, their 4.3 yards per carry allowed put them in the lower third of the league. I think he'll take advantage of an Indy team that will be looking pass first, en route to another game of 20+ fantasy point production.

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Wide Receivers

Julian Edelman - FD 7300 DK 6400 DD 12350 DFSTR
Not the guy you expect to see on the top of the list this week? Remember, these lists are about points per dollar, not necessarily raw points totals. So what's going on here? Well, before Edelman was sidelined, it was clear that he had re-emerged as Brady's favorite non-Gronk target - drawing double digit targets in each of his last 4 games and 5 of his last 6. What's more, and a lot of people don't know this, he was Brady's most targeted receiver in the red zone by far. He was targeted 20 times there this season - 25% more than Rob Gronkowksi. I think he'll go right back up to getting 10+ targets in this game, and believe he's the safest receiver on the board when all factors are considered.

Demaryius Thomas - FD 9100 DK 8500 DD 13350 DFSTR
Of the big money receivers going this weekend, Thomas stands out ahead of the rest, for me. We saw that Dez is capable of disappearing last week, and I'm not sure how his deep-threat game is going to translate to an awful weathered Lambeau field. And Jordy Nelson? Same story. Say what you want about Peyton Manning losing some zip or whatever, but Thomas has shown that he's Manning's most comfortable target. He went for 100 yards in 10 of his last 13 games. He led the NFL in targets, and was second in receptions to Antonio Brown. If there's a case against him, it's that he was held to one of his worst games against Indy earlier this season - but the Broncos also blew the Colts out by 22 in that game. Vegas projects a much closer one here, and I think Thomas gets his full run.

Steve Smith - FD 6600 DK 5800 DD 9450 DFSTR
I can't get a sense as to what's going on with Darelle Revis this week, but if you think Revis will cover Torrey Smith, then Steve Smith becomes an excellent play to help you spend up elsewhere. It's now back to back games with 12.6 or more FanDuel points, and second receivers have fared pretty well against the Pats this year. There's some risk here, of course - he might get shut down completely if Revis covers him the whole game - but I think there's a mountain of upside as well.

Also considered: TY Hilton I like Hilton just about as much as Thomas, but you can't play everyone, and I had to choose one of them. The main thing on Hilton's side is that Luck looks like he's going to go down throwing to him - his 14 targets last week were the second most of the season. The downside? He got held down by the Broncos their last time around, even with the Colts trailing the whole time.

A one hit wonder: Don't expect the same from Terrance Williams this week. Just don't. Totally different weather, totally different opponent, totally different game script.

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Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski - FD 7900 DK 7100 DD 14000 DFSTR
Not a whole heck of a lot to say, here. It's a must win game for the Pats, and Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. The last time he scored single digit fantasy points was October 16th, and one sort of has to think that Gronkowski was used this year in a way that was meant to just tantalize fantasy owners. I don't think Belichick will mess around in this one - it's going to be Gronk left right and center until the game is firmly in hand.

Jason Witten - FD 5500 DK 4800 DD 9150 DFSTR
Man, the weather has really got to be a concern in playing any receiver in that game in Lambeau, but if I had to choose one, it'd be Witten. First of all, playing Witten will allow you to go a LOT safer at some other position. There's no equivalent player at his price range at the other positions (unless you are talking about Herron, but I'd suggest that you could play both) for safety and upside. The Cowboys can't really go out there and run the ball every single time, and short passes will be a way they can break it up. Witten seems like the most logical guy to plug in there, by a mile.

Kickers

Just a strategy note on kickers, since I figure I'll share what's working well for me this season.

I've been taking kickers against teams that don't have spectacular defenses in decent weather conditions. I don't look at the kicker's individual "skill" at all, just opportunity. Typically kicker will be the very last spot I fill, and while there are situations I'll avoid (I wouldn't play kickers against Seattle, for instance, or any team that's a 6.5 point or more underdog), I think you can justify playing just about any other kicker in a GPP format especially. Don't sweat this too much - just pick a guy that fits in with the rest of what you want to do and go from there.

Defense & Special Teams

Seattle Seahawks
If ever there was a time that there could be a 100% start, I suppose it'd be now. The Panthers' offense looked terrible against the Cardinals defense last week, turning the ball over, and generating basically nothing. What are they supposed to do against the one defense in the NFL that's legitimately great against both the run and the pass? They're going to get swamped. Skunked. Befuddled. This one is the play of the day for safety and upside, and I don't think it's close.

New England Patriots
Outside of Cam Newton, Flacco is easily the worst QB remaining in the playoffs. While you can make a case for dreaming on some upside by taking Green Bay against Dallas in the terrible weather, I like thinking about the Pats in a game where their defense will be playing from ahead. Forsett really struggled against the Steelers, and Flacco might not be able to get anything going with one of his receivers stranded on Revis island. This will probably be a separation play, but there's absolutely a scenario in which the Patriots pay the highest points per dollar total of this weekend's slate of games.

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