Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/5/15

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Point Guard

Damian Lillard - FD 9100 DK 10400 DFSTR 7200
Going to be a running theme today as we pick on the Lakers. They are bad against every position but save their true matador defense for the opposing point guard. The Lakers are allowing 21% more scoring than league average to opposing point guards. That is insane really. The difference between them the second worst team defending the PG is about the same difference as the second worst team and the middle of the pack. If the Blazers avoid the blowout Lillard stands to crush this price and I think he's safe in cash games regardless.

Matthew Dellavedova - FD 3600 DK 4000 DFSTR 3000
Strictly an opportunity thing. With Kyrie out Dellavedova will be running the point and mostly likely sees about 35 minutes in this one. That's enough to make basically a must start in cash games. He isn't particularly good mind you, but dribbling the ball over half court and running around on the court for that long at his prices makes him a solid value play.

Trey Burke - FD 5900 DK 6300 DFSTR 5300
He's seeing huge minutes now that the Jazz are banged up in their backcourt. I don't suspect he continues consistently getting 39 minutes a game, but there is increased usage for him with Alec Burks out now. The Jazz are really short on shooters. And though Burke isn't a great one, that hasn't stopped him from chucking up shots.

Consider Tony Wroten if MCW is out and Derrick Rose as there will be a night when his shot does fall. He's taking enough of them.

 

Shooting Guard

Wesley Matthews - FD 6000 DK 6400 DFSTR 4900
I get tired of saying as much as you probably get tired of reading it, but the Lakers are just that bad on defense this season. They allow 10% more scoring than league average to opposing shooting guards and Matthews is a minutes hog who should see full run tonight as long as the Lakers can hang even just a little. Sure, that's asking a lot, but LA can score some too. Wish the game was in Los Angeles to help possibly keep the Lakers alive, but I'm willing to risk it because Matthews could possibly hit value even in a boat race.

Dion Waiters - FD 5400 DK 5600 DFSTR 4300
He's been a mini pile of garbage in the short term, but as I'll outline later with Love, Waiters will most likely be called on to put up a bunch of shots. Where we thought he'd see even more minutes with Lebron out and didn't, I just don't see how the Cavs don't run him out there for over 30 minutes. If he's in the starting lineup then he is a must play.

Arron Afflalo - FD 5200 DK 5800 DFSTR 5000
Our system consistently loves the guy. The biggest problem with Afflalo is he is much like JJ Redick in that if he doesn't score, then you are totally sunk on him. He does very little else on the basketball court and his price reflects as much. Minnesota is about as bad against opposing twos as the Lakers. This is risky, there is some upside for Afflalo at these prices, but you need to recognize that if the shot isn't falling then you are in big trouble.

Consider Monta Ellis if you want to spend up some.

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Small Forward

Andrew Wiggins - FD 6200 DK 6300 DFSTR 5000
Shabazz Muhammad - FD 6200 DK 6700 DFSTR 5100
I'd consider playing them both together or swapping them here and there as they are pretty much the same prices across the board. Wiggins has been much better of late, but I still think there is enormous value in Shabazz even with the mini-minutes reduction last game. For cash games I'd lean toward Wiggins, but again, I think you can run them together considering Shabazz is playing the two in this offense. These are the T-Wolves primary scoring options right now and until Kevin Martin comes back, that will stay intact.

Nicolas Batum - FD 6000 DK 6400 DFSTR 5100
Great matchup against the Lakers and starting to find his shooting stroke. Batum is a do-everything three with a skillset that, in the past, has kept his floor higher. He needs to score a little bit more, a little bit more consistently for me to feel great about getting him in there. But the price has been down this season because of his shooting troubles. If you think that is getting ironed out as he gets healthier then I like him in the mid tier of value against the crappy Lakers.

Wilson Chandler - FD 5800 DK 6400 DFSTR 5000
Honestly, these small forwards are all falling in the same range for me today. This is a position to get exposure to a few different guys in GPPs because really any of them could blow up. Their multipliers in our system are nearly identical. Chandler doesn't strike me as safe by any means, but on nights where the three is dropping he'll crush these prices.
 

Power Forward

Kevin Love - FD 8500 DK 10600 DFSTR 7400
I am sure this isn't the way Cleveland envisioned the season going. But now, all of a sudden with Lebron and Kyrie sidelined for this game the Cavs are missing about 34 shots per game. That, if you aren't into math or anything, is a ton. Love hasn't had the fantasy impact some expected this season as his scoring is down about 10% and his rebounding is down about 25% from his career averages. But with no one else to turn to, the Cavs will have to go to Love. I suspect he will put up a ton of shots in this one and volume alone will help keep his value high. That, and the Sixers being a defensively challenged squad will make him a solid play all around.

Kenneth Faried - FD 6800 DK 7400 DFSTR 5400
Is the top power forward play in our system and I only have him second because I think our algorithm is a little low on Love considering some of the outside factors. But I'll be playing these two together whenever possible. Faried's play has made it very difficult to pull the minutes trap door on him lately. And this is a fantastic matchup. Last time he faced the T-Wolves all the Manimal did was go 26-25. You read that correctly. He feasted on Thad Young and has the same advantage tonight. I'm not pencilling him in for that line again of course, but he should be in your lineups without a doubt.

Nikola Mirotic - FD 5100 DK 5300 DFSTR 3000
I really want to play three (or even four) power forwards tonight which isn't often the case. Assuming Dunleavy is out again tonight then Mirotic becomes a crazy value play. The Bulls are nothing if not consistent with their minutes. Mirotic started last game and played 38 (33 in regular time as it went to OT). That kind of run is all you need to see when he comes in at these prices. He crushed his price and that was even with shooting 20% from the field. The shot falls and he's helping you win a GPP.

Strongly consider Thomas Robinson as the Blazers are real thin in the front court right now. Thaddeus Young is also an interesting upside play. He torched Denver for 23/6/4 last time they played.
 

Center

Cole Aldrich - FD 5600 DK 6500 DFSTR 3600
Mason Plumlee 2.0 is what this guy is. I mean that strictly from a DFS value as their games are completely different. But much like Plumlee, it is taking forever for Aldrich's price to correct. That's great news for you and I suspect that even with a tough matchup against Marc Gasol tonight, you are still getting the money in good. The only thing that threatens him tonight is foul trouble. He struggled defending Boogie when they and had his worst game as a starter against DeAndre Jordan the other night. I don't think he's a near universal play like last night, but you are getting your money in safe all things considered.

Rudy Gobert - FD 5300 DK 5900 DFSTR 4000
Like Aldrich above, Rudy has a tough matchup against Hibbert. For all of Roy's offensive issues this season, the Pacers are allowing 16% less scoring than league average to opposing centers and 12% less rebounds. That's a big problem for Gobert even with his minutes and cheap price. I still think he is a value, but don't expect a repeat of the other night.

Marc Gasol - FD 9000 DK 9700 DFSTR 8100
On the other side of things, I can see Marc just brutalizing Aldrich in this one. Blowout is a factor, but with Z-Bo still out, I suspect the Grizzlies will force it down low the Gasol and work on a slower Knicks frontcourt. He's more a safe cash game play for me as the points are a near guarantee. Will have to have some things go right for him to crush his price. He and Aldrich have similar levels of risk but for completely different reasons.

Consider Gorgui Dieng
 

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