Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/4/15

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Point Guard

Darren Collison - FD 7300 DK 6800
Welcome to a short NBA slate! While Collison isn't an elite fantasy PG, he's been playing a ton of minutes recently, and his price has yet to catch up. Detroit has allowed the 5th most points to opposing PGs, so this looks like a match made in heaven.

Donald Sloan - FD 4500 DK 4700 DFSTR 3600
I don't want to live in a world where I have to play Donald Sloan in a daily fantasy basketball game either, okay? But our projection system is absolutely in love here. If Watson is out and Sloan is going to play 30 minutes, and get those minutes against the very worst defensive matchup in the league (Lakers vs. opposing PGs), then he's looking something like a must-play.

Punts, if Hardaway is out:
Shane Larkin - FD 4100 DK 4000 DFSTR 4000
Pablo Prigioni - FD 3800 DK 4000
Both of these guys are in play for me as pure punt options today. The expensive point guards just have terrible points multipliers in our projection system, and both have significant upside on punt prices if the Knicks continue to have to sit Hardaway. And Milwaukee just might be a team the Knicks can not lose by 30 to, even without Melo.

Also considered: If you happen to find a ton of great punts elsewhere, I can sort of live with Kyle Lowry.
 

Shooting Guard

J.R. Smith - FD 5400 DK 5900 DFSTR
Smith started at small forward for the Knicks, and managed 36 FanDuel points in a game where they got blown out by one of the other of the league's worst teams. With Melo out, Smith looks like he'll be the primary beneficiary. While Hardaway Jr. might cut into this a little bit, I suspect he'll sap minutes from the Larkin/Prigioni combo more than Smith. JR's salary should probably be 20% higher in this playing time climate, so strike while the iron's hot. This price and opportunity are truly match-up proof, which is really something at the normally riskiest position in daily fantasy basketball.

Dwyane Wade - FD 9100 DK 9100 DFSTR
It's the second night of a back to back, and I'm writing this on Saturady night, but Wade has been playing a wealth of minutes. And the last time he played on the 2nd half of a back to back? He scored 45 fantasy points against Utah. On a night where you should be able to get some big money in, Wade looks like a great play against Brooklyn's 23rd ranked shooting guard defense.

Ben McLemore - FD 4500 DK 5000
If escaping this position with some decidedly unsexy upside but a wicked-high floor is your thing, consider Benjamin Mclemore. Unless it's a blow-out, Ben will get his mid-thirties minutes and high-teens fantasy points, and pretty much nothing else. I may be slightly overstating how low his upside is, too, given Detroit's poor shooting guard defense (21st in the league).

Also considered: If Watson is out again, grab Rodney Stuckey. If he's going to play 25+ minutes, he'll easily pay his prices against the Lake-show.

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Small Forward

C.J. Miles - FD 5500 DK 4500
Ceej! Miles has back to back games paying almost 6x or more than 6x this FanDuel price, and it looks for all the world like this will continue until the Pacers get someone back. Also - the Lakers!!! They've allowed the 2nd most points allowed to opposing small forwards this season, and the fast paced Lakers are a perfect fit for Miles' chuckin' style. Pay attention in case something changes, but if it doesn't, this looks like an easy one.

Rudy Gay - FD 8600 DK 8600 DFSTR
Another position where you can consider spending a bit. I don't love Gay in a vaccuum necessarily, but there aren't a lot of great big-money options tonight, and Small Forward is a position without a lot of good mid-range value. Detroit really doesn't have anyone who even remotely matches up with Gay on defense, and he could really realize the full force of his upside tonight.

Khris Middleton - FD 4900 DK 4700 DFSTR 4000
If I had a nickel for every time I said I'd never play another Buck etc etc. I guess I'll just you some Middleton numbers. It's now 4 games in a row that he's played 30+ minutes, and he's paid better than 5x on this FanDuel price in 3 of 4 of those. That's pretty great. And he'll be up against JR Smith, which should be a pretty significant defensive mismatch.

Power Forward

David West - FD 6500 DK 6700
Slow down! You can't play more than 4 Pacers on FanDuel, but I'll be considering West to be sure. The minutes are looking locked in, and he's put up 5x a handful of times on this price recently. The floor is absolutely secure against the Lakers fast-paced no defense approach - they rank dead last when it comes to defending PFs this season.

Ed Davis - FD 5400 DK 5400
Simply the wrong price here. With Davis playing nearly 30 minutes a game, he's been just whipping this price night after night. His floor these days feels like 4.5x this FanDuel price with an upside in the 7x+ range. Play him, if you can figure out how to spend the money elsewhere.

Derrick Williams - FD 4300 DK 3500 DFSTR
Value play of the position if you think the minutes will return. Williams took terrific advantage of Minnesota's front court, and Detroit is actually 5 spots lower when it comes to allowing fantasy points to the power forward position. It might not be the safest cash game play in the world, but expect lots of folks to have Williams in their GPP squads.

Center

Cole Aldrich - FD 5600 DK 6200 DFSTR 3600
The price continues to be dead wrong on Aldrich, and it's frankly puzzling. The guy has shown 45+ fantasy point upside, and seems locked in for 30+. So what gives? I guess they just figure Amare will be back at some point, or Bargnani will cut into things when he's healthy... but - it hasn't happened yet. Until then, this is a position where you're probably going to want to go cheapish. Milwaukee's allowed the 5th most points to opposing Cs this season, and Aldrich is a man possessed.

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10700 DK 11200 DFSTR
It's a shame Aldrich is such a fantastic play, really, because Boogie looks like a great spot tonight as well. For all of Drummond's defensive reputation (due largely to fantasy stats), the Pistons have allowed the 3rd most points to opposing centers this season. Cousins can match the Pistons' athleticism down there, and should also really take advantage of their lack of polish. I think this is the game he stays out of foul trouble and breaks back out.

Also considered: Zaza Pachulia. He's been crushing, and it's the Knicks.

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