Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/3/15

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Point Guard

Trey Burke - FD 5500 DK 5800 DFSTR 5300
Here's what I wrote about Burke last night, and since his game hasn't started yet as of this writing, I'll quote myself:
The minutes are back with a vengeance, and it doesn't look like anything he's done with those minutes is entirely unsustainable. With Burks gone, those shots have to go somewhere, and Burke could very well be one of the primary beneficiaries.
Different night, same story. Minny allows 5% more points and assists to opposing PGs, and Burke looks like one of the safer options on the board.

Chris Paul - FD 9900 DK 10900
Might as well get the elephant in the room out of the way. Listen - no one can kill you for playing Paul tonight. I'll certainly roll him in GPPs. But in cash games? Gulp. Philly is just SO susceptible to a blow out here that I'm not feeling the safety I might otherwise. All that being said, I imagine he'll be a tremendously high start %, and if Philly gets hot from 3 or something, Paul could be the highest points per dollar big money play of the night.

Cory Joseph - FD 5300 DK 5100 DFSTR 3500
With Parker missing Saturday's game, Joseph starts to look awfully attractive once again. Make no mistake about it, Joseph can definitely disappear in the wrong match-up, but this one looks pretty decent to me. The Wiz are below league average in terms of allowing both points and rebounds to opposing PGs, and Joseph's minutes should be relatively secure in what should be a close game.

Also considered: Kemba Walker

 

Shooting Guard

A note on SG tonight - I really don't like any of the big money guys, so I'll be going in the mid-range or with cheap guys where possible. If I can punt today, this is where I'm doing it. I also wouldn't punt elsewhere to spend up at SG.

Victor Oladipo - FD 6300 DK 5600
The Magic have quietly increased their young shooting guard's minutes to the point where these prices are unlikely to remain at current levels. Oladipo features decent scoring and elite steals, and all those minutes on the court lead to a fine compliment of boards and assists as well. In this match-up he'll draw the Hornets, who don't have a real SG to defend him while Stephenson is out.

Wesley Matthews - FD 6000 DK 6100
The NBA's leading 3 point shooter has four great games in a row, and gets as much opportunity from this position as anyone in this price range. His minutes can disappear in a blow-out, but this game with the Hawks should be relatively close, giving Wes plenty of opportunity to pay value. Not really an upside play for me, but I think he's pretty safe going up against Kyle Korver.

Tony Allen - FD 4300 DK 3700 DFSTR 4500
I'm writing this before the Memphis-Lakers game, but Allen has looked pretty consistent in his return from injury thus far, and he's got a nice match-up with Denver's undersized back court. The Nuggets have allowed 7% more scoring and 18% more rebounds to opposing SGs this year, and I think Allen hustles his way to value and more en route to a 10% higher price inside the month.

Also considered: Jamal Crawford

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Small Forward

Tobias Harris - FD 6900 DK 7300
Small forward feels a little bit like a slog for me, today. So I'm bringing forth one Tobias Harris as the top selection of the group. Why? Well, Charlotte's problems on the wing have led opposing SFs to score 11% more points than league average, which places the Hornets toward the bottom of the league in terms of defending the position. In a game that should be fairly competitive between these two bad teams, I think Harris' minutes are fairly secure, and his production should follow.

Robert Covington - FD 5600 DK 5500 DFSTR 4700
So, the Clippers are going to beat the Sixers by 400 points in this game. That seems relatively assured. But! The Clips have relatively decent defenders at most positions - except Small Forward. They've allowed 11% more points to opposing SFs than league average, and are league average in terms of allowing rebounds. Covington should be a main option for Philly while the Sixers are still alive.

Gordon Hayward - FD 7700 DK 8100 DFSTR 7100
Like Burke, Hayward should be one of the primary beneficiaries of Alec Burks' season ending injury. The only thing is, his price hasn't climbed to reflect that just yet. He's playing 36 minutes every single night, and Minnesota's league average defense shouldn't stand in the way of Hayward getting his. More upside here than many realize, I'd say.

Also considered: Andrew Wiggins, Matt Barnes

Power Forward

Kenneth Faried - FD 6900 DK 7400 DFSTR 5500
What are we supposed to do about this Kenneth Faried thing? It looks for all the world like he's underpriced at $9,000 these days, much less $6,900. Aside from the "dead legs" game against the Lakers, he's averaged 19 rebounds in the other 4 games he's played. Averaged! And two of those front courts (Brooklyn and Chicago) do a decent job stopping opposing PFs. Memphis is tough and all, but with Z-bo ailing I think this could be another absolute monster for the Manimal.

Thaddeus Young - FD 6500 DK 6200
Back to back games with uncharacteristic foul trouble have people sleeping on Thaddeus Young, but not me. His current rotations have him slated for 32 minutes when the Wolves are in the game, and that should be the case against Utah. If he plays 32 minutes, I think he's a shoo-in for an easy 4.5-6x on these prices, and think his price will end up 10% higher than this by season's end.

Blake Griffin - FD 10300 DK 11300 DFSTR 8800
The case for Griffin is the same as the case for Paul. First of all, who is supposed to cover him in this game?? I've always felt that Blake has a tendency towards front-running, and this has all the feel of a traditional lob-city brow beating. But for 3 quarters, or 4? That's the age old question. In an up-tempo game, I think he could pay it either way.

Also considered: Pau Gasol, Cody Zeller

Center

Marc Gasol - FD 9100 DK 9700 DFSTR 8100
With few clear punts at the center position today, I think it might be a night where we consider spending up. With 40 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 (before tonight's Lakers game), Gasol is one of the safer big money options that currently exists - especially with him needing to pick up the slack sans Z-bo. Denver has allowed 11% more points to Centers than league average this year. Looks like another game for Gasol to take over.

DeAndre Jordan - FD 8100 DK 8700 DFSTR 6300
Everything I said about Blake and Paul above, though DeAndre feels a little less safe to me.

Also considered: Enes Kanter

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