Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 12/31/14

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Point Guard

Russell Westbrook - FD 11700 DK 12100 DFSTR 8800
As is always the case with Russell, his fantasy value (at least at these prices) is very much tied to the status of Durant. If KD sits again (he's GTD right now) Westbrook is probably still a value even at these insanely high tags. It's hard to comprehend that. But his usage rate is off the charts and he's, for the most part, delivering. He'd be getting a fast-paced Phoenix team that gets shredded by opposing point guards. If no Durant I'm starting my cash game plays with this guy.

Brandon Knight - FD 6700 DK 7400 DFSTR 6500
As Jeff Teague proved last night, Cleveland and Kyrie Irving have major struggles against opposing point guards. Knight's price has dropped over the short term because of some inconsistent performances and a troubling amount of turnovers last game and rough shooting of late. That's fine. If the Bucks can keep it even a semblance of close, Knight is a guy I'll have some shares of because of all the Bucks he's one of the few without minutes questions.

Cory Joseph - FD 5400 DK 5300 DFSTR 3300
Patrick Beverley - FD 5800 DK 5300 DFSTR 4900
These two have almost no upside but they do have something in common: minutes. That's going to be the theme of the day as the high value just isn't there across the board. Our system has a bunch of guys locked into very similar multipliers and they are trending low. That's subject to a couple of the truly awful defensive teams not going today. So we need to target the minutes for safety. That's where these guys come in. They won't blow it out of the box, but they also won't break your bank.

Strongly consider Isaiah Thomas because the price is still low.

 

Shooting Guard

Marco Belinelli - FD 4200 DK 4000 DFSTR 3500
We gave him as a top play last night and all he did was crush it. Dude has major minutes coming at a very reduced salary. It won't always be like last night of course as he needs his shot to fall in order to really pay off. But the minutes are the key. He is getting over 30 of run and that makes his floor pretty high all things considered. With Parker still out and Belinelli in the starting lineup there's a lot to like about the guy.

Avery Bradley - FD 5000 DK 4000
Outside of last game, Bradley is one of the few Celtics I'm not concerned with when it comes to minutes. That they were down to the Wiz and Bradley wasn't shooting well could have been the story last game. I'm not so worried about it and he falls somewhat in the same camp as Belinelli above. The minutes are there at a very reduced price. He has the chance to crush his tag against a defensively-challenged Kings squad.

Jamal Crawford - FD 5500 DK 4900
Has a good chance to hit value or more if the Clips are just boat-racing the Knicks and Crawford gets some garbage-time run. He doesn't play through blowouts, but he does see some more minutes when the starters don't come back in.

Consider Manu Ginobili though there's a good chance he doesn't play on the back-to-back.

 

Small Forward

Jeff Green - FD 6100 DK 6000
Much like Avery Bradley above, Green is the other Celtic I don't worry about too much when it comes to the minutes. He's up over thirty on the regular. That of course isn't the issue. It's the consistency in the production. That's where you need to worry. But the matchup is there for him today. Sacramento allows 4% more scoring than league average to opposing small forwards and that's where most of Green's value is wrapped. He needs the ball in the hoop to hit value. I don't like him in every matchup, but I like his chances at scoring today so I'll be running the guy.

LeBron James - FD 10600 DK 11700 DFSTR 9500
Look, I know he sat out yesterday against the Hawks. That's not a good sign or course. But if he's cleared to play today, I think you can safely run Lebron out there. Milwaukee gets shredded by small forwards (though of course Lebron is a player all his own) and just generally stink. The blowout potential is there, and it's always weird playing guys coming off a tweak or a missed game, but Lebron is worth the money if he's in there and is where I'm spending big bucks if no Westbrook.

Trevor Ariza - FD 5700 DK 6100 DFSTR 5200
It's not that I love the guy today. And Houston sure has a lot of mouths to feed now. More the issue with today's slate is that solid value is very, very hard to come by. Ariza's value is wrapped up in the minutes and the minutes alone at this point. There's still some chance he catches fire from beyond the arc as he's run a little cold there. But even with Corey Brewer, dude is still out on the court a ton. Need to take the safety where it comes tonight and Charlotte blows against small forwards.

Consider Rudy Gay though I don't say that with a ton of confidence

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Power Forward

Jared Sullinger - FD 6000 DK 5900
It's simple here: if Sullinger gets 30 minutes of run he's an easy play at the PF today. But of course because nothing is ever easy in DFS we must ask ourselves if the minutes will be there. If the last two games are an indication, they will be. And with the way Sacramento "defends" power forwards I think Sullinger sticks in this one. Again, it's never easy with Brad Stevens and Celtics as their rotations aren't ever set in stone.

Tristan Thompson - FD 5600 DK 5500 DFSTR 4700
Basically since Varejao's injury Thompson has solidified his minutes. He's getting huge run and I'm buying completely on that. Upwards of 35 minutes a game is no joke. And even if he's not the primary option on any given night for the Cavs (or even the third or fourth) getting to stand around on the court for that long with his skill set will pay these prices.

Markieff Morris - FD 6000 DK 6300 DFSTR 6000
Once again you can see that power forward is a problem. Why else led off with a dude so freaking inconsistent. He is basically foul trouble waiting to happen which can be a problem against some power forwards. I don't see it as much of an issue against Ibaka, especially if both Durant and Westbrook are playing. This is speculative of course, but the Suns will get Markieff his minutes if all else goes right. And he can pour it on in the right game. A high-scoring affair with the Thunder could be that situation even with Ibaka as a quality defender.

Jason Smith - FD 3800 DK 3800
He's been seeing more minutes of late and more than paying these prices. Amar'e is sitting today and those minutes will trickle down to guys like Smith. I'm actually less concerned with the blowout going this way because the Knicks need to play someone. Think there is plenty of value in this play.

Strongly consider Cody Zeller with Al Jefferson out

 

Center

Cole Aldrich - FD 5000 DK 5500
Oh yes please. Aldrich has been a lone bright spot in the Knicks' never-ending sea of misery. New York is of course a disaster. And Aldrich's price has corrected some simply because he's played so well. But it hasn't shot up enough. Much in the same mold as Mason Plumlee in that he has all of a sudden seen an enormous jump in minutes and had those minutes be super productive, I think you kind of need to play him tonight when possible. The Clippers will surely destroy the Knicks. Have no doubt. But LA has defensive challenges when it comes to opposing big men. You're still getting a solid price on Cole and should get him in your lineups.

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10800 DK 11100
If you are spending up at this position, and I suspect you will, Boogie is the guy. He's just begging to get one of the two Boston big men in foul trouble early. He's a stud no doubt about it and could really pour it on against a smaller Celtic front court. He can crush you in every phase of the game and it should be no different here. On the early slate for FanDuel choosing between him and Aldrich isn't great.

Zaza Pachulia - FD 4900 DK 4200 DFSTR 3500
This is of course if, and only if Larry Sanders is still out with the "flu". The Bucks scare the s@#$ out of me when it comes to their safety because Jason Kidd's taken a page out of Larry Drew's instability playbook. But if Zaza is the lone big man with Sanders and Ersan out then there's little Kidd can screw with.

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