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Game Preview
Happy New Year folks and glad we’re kicking off 2015 with some college football action. At high noon we got the Badgers tangling with the Tigers. This is an amazing slate of games today and we’re starting off with some of the best players in the country. Heisman candidates, Nick Marshall from Auburn and Melvin Gordon from Wisconsin, will surely steal the headlines in this one. Gordon broke the NCAA single game rushing record (406 L. Tomlinson 11/20/99) that stood for 15 years and he did it just 3 quarters of play with 408 yards. One week later Samaje Perine from Oklahoma ran for 427 yards. You think Gordon wants that 4th quarter back? Auburn is pretty good at stopping the run, but stopping the run and stopping Gordon can be two totally different things. Wisconsin is also good at stopping the run, but stopping Auburn’s ground game is also different. Marshall is a very dangerous duel threat quarterback and if the Badgers leave gaps Marshall will find them. Cameron Artis-Payne is no slouch by his own rights and although Wisconsin is strong upfront he should still be somewhat effective. If you like teams that run the ball then you will want to watch this one.
Players to Watch
(AUB) Nick Marshall, Cameron Artis-Payne, Sammie Coates
(WISC) Melvin Gordon
Fantasy Analysis
As good as Gordon is I think you can make a strong argument to fade him here. Auburn isn’t exactly a stone wall, but they are kind of tough against the run. Gordon will get his, but it likely won’t be near what he needs to hit value. This isn’t a case of Gordon laying an egg, there’s just considerably better value at the position. I’m a little hesitant on the Auburn guys and for the same reason. Marshall and CAP should be just fine, but there are really solid choices today and you simply don’t need the risk in your cash lineups. I would pass on Gordon for GPP’s as well, but you can run the Auburn guys.
Game Preview
Right about when Nick Marshall runs in his first score Michigan State will take on Baylor in what could be a track meet. Baylor runs a super high pace offense and can spread the ball to the plethora of talent. Bryce Petty may not blossom into an NFL quarterback, but he gets it done on the college level. He’s big strong passer with solid rushing skills. It starts with Petty, but Baylor is loaded with talent; Coleman, Goodley, and Linwood are just a few. Ranked #1 in total offense Baylor is the unstoppable force. The Spartans run a well balanced offense and come in as the #12 ranked team in total offense. State doesn’t have the depth at the skilled positions, but their best is as good as anyone Baylor has to offer. Cook, Langford, and Lippett are amongst the Nation’s best at their respective positions. If Baylor is the unstoppable force then Michigan State is the immovable object being ranked #6 in total defense.
Players to Watch
(MSU) Connor Cook, Jeremy Langford, Tony Lippett
(BA) Bryce Petty, Shock Linwood, Corey Coleman, Antwon Goodley, everyone else
Fantasy Analysis
With a total around 70 this is expected to be a high scoring game. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if this game hit 80, but I have an itch that says this game stays under. While both teams have good offenses they both have good defenses and especially against the run. Langford has his work cut out for him and I think I will be looking elsewhere if I’m going to spend that kind of money at RB. Cook and Lippett on the other hand could pay off and in a huge way. Baylor is well below average against the pass. Some of that is due to teams playing catch up, some is due to teams not being able to run against them, and some of its just their inability to defend the pass. Cook to Lippett could light it up. The Baylor guys are all good, but it’s a tough matchup and they spread the ball around. I feel like there is too much of a “guess” to justify their tags. They are all great GPP plays, as any of the skilled position players could go off. If I had to pick one I think Goodley may be the best value. His price is somewhat discounted due to some poor performances, but it was really just a matter of how the cookie crumbled that day opposed to Goodley suddenly being slow and sucky. Good luck.
Game Preview
The 3rd game on schedule today is the Citrus Bowl between Missouri and Minnesota. Okay, so this is clearly the red headed step child of games today. While all the other games feature high flying offenses and tons of NFL talent, this game has neither. The total is in the mid 40's so even Vegas thinks this will be a snooze fest. Minnesota runs a conservative offense predicated on establishing the run. David Cobb & Maxx Williams are two Gophers that may have a future playing on Sunday's, but I don’t think it will be enough to come out victorious. Mizzu is pretty tough on the defensive front and although some backs have done well against them, it doesn’t bode well for a Gophers team that needs to run the ball to be successful. Matty Mauk has had a so-so season and would really like to end things on the right foot. Minnesota has been burned by the pass this year so Mauk and Co. should be able to find some success. I think this game will be played pretty even with the difference being the passing ability of Mauk. It's not great, but it should be good enough to eke out a boring victory. Phew, I wasn’t sure if was going to be able to get through that one without talking about the next games.
Players to Watch
(Minn) David Cobb, Maxx Williams
(Mizzu) Matty Mauk, Bud Sasser
Fantasy Analysis
The Vegas total should speak to you. This game doesn’t offer much in the way of upside. Cobb is priced near the upper echelon and for good reason, but this doesn’t scream of the matchup to get giddy about. The only way I see Cobb hitting value is if he scores multiple touchdowns. He's not a tremendous threat in the passing game so without the touchdowns it just doesn’t seem likely he will hit value. Touchdowns are always volatile (more so in the NFL) and I'm just not prepared to hitch my wagon on the hope of a couple TD's. For that reason, I'm out. There isn't much to get excited about on the other side either. Mauk has been way too inconsistent and doesn’t even have the high end upside for a GPP play. I do think, however, Sasser and Hunt are both firmly in play. Mizzu has a crowded backfield, but Sasser & Hunt dominate the target sin the passing game. I would keep expectations modest, but you could certainly do worse at their price points. (Injury Update – Hunt is out – Sasser gets a nice bump under the assumption his targets increase)
Game Preview
Here we go people, the moment we have all been waiting for; NCAA Playoffs baby. By this time the Mummers Parade is over and all the sequins, glitter, and feathery crap that fill the streets of Philadelphia on this glorious day have been packed up for another year. The fate of the string bands has been decided and if you're a follower hopefully your band took home first place. Those of you that have never heard of the Mummers Parade, add it to your bucket list. It’s a must see event held every year on streets of Philadelphia on New Year's Day. Another must see event will be the Grand Daddy of them All, the Rose Bowl featuring the Oregon Ducks and Florida State Seminoles. FSU is the only undefeated team left standing and boy does it feel like Oregon is gonna drop a big number on them. After catching the entire world off guard last year, Famous Jameis took a huge step back this year. It’s easy to point the finger and say the kid didn’t have his head in the game this year with all the off field issues, but the reality is; he hasn’t lost, not once. Say what you want, FSU has emerged victorious in every game this year and that counts for something. Winston can’t afford to have any miscues against this potent Duck offense. Dalvin Cook has been a pleasant surprise for the Seminoles and has crazy quicks. This dude sizzles every time he touches the ball and I think Oregon is going to get a good look, at the back of his jersey. They can also beat through the air with Greene on the outside and O’Leary down the middle. Offense hasn’t been the issue for Florida St., it’s the defense that creates pause. That doesn’t bode well one bit when facing an offense like Oregon. Mariota ran away with the Heisman and there’s a good chance he will run away from the Seminole defense. Oregon is basically 97 deep at every position and their linemen are faster than everyone else’s receivers. Okay, not quite, but you get the point. Mariota, Marshall, Freeman, Tyner, Nelson, Allen, just to name a few. Great game to watch, unless you’re a Florida guy – Blowout alert
Players to Watch
(Org) Marcus Mariota, everyone else
(FSU) Jameis Winston, Dalvin Cook, Rashad Greene, Nick O’Keary
Fantasy Analysis
This game offers everything you want in terms of fantasy games. Vegas is calling for a boatload of points and both teams bring tons of offense to the table. So where to go? Mariota is worth every penny and can even be used in GPP’s if you’re careful with the remaining positions. Freeman is one of my favorite value backs, but likely won’t be on the winning GPP lineup. The receivers for Oregon are a little more difficult to figure out. Mariota simply finds the open guy and therefore it’s difficult to project which receiver will be on the receiving end of Mariota’s passes. If I had to choose Nelson is my guy. Winston hasn’t been fantasy worthy most of the year. In the early going his price was well beyond his output. Now that his price has come down its come down because Winston just isn’t getting it done. He wins, but that doesn’t translate to fantasy points. I love Greene in this game from every direction and in every format. Love Greene. O’Leary is the best TE on the board, but you will have to pay to get him. The choice is yours, but don’t sacrifice too much at other positions to land him. He’s good, but he’s still a TE not named Jace Amaro (oh how I still miss you Jace)
Game Preview
The final game of the night and it will be an eagerly anticipated contest between the Buckeyes from Ohio State and the Crimson Tide from Alabama. So Urban Myer is either that amazing of a coach or Ohio St is simply loaded with talent. It's not often a team can lose its Heisman candidate quarterback (Braxton Miller) before the season started only to be replaced by a better Heisman candidate quarterback (JT Barrett) only to be replaced by the 3rd string quarterback (Cardale Jones) who completely dismantled a pretty good defense in Wisconsin. Jones will certainly have his work cut out for him facing a nasty Bama defense Thursday night. Here's the skinny; If Bama has an Achilles Heel, it would be their secondary and unlike his predecessors, Jones' strength is in his passing ability and not his rushing skills. In limited (very limited) Jones attempted 34 passes and he completed 22 of them with 5 going for touchdowns (0 picks), not bad for 3rd string. Ohio State also boasts a beastly running game that seems to be peaking at the right time. Zeke (Ezekiel Elliot) ran for a total of 141 yards in his first three games. In his last three he ran for a total of 448 yards. He finished the year with 1402 and 12 touchdowns on 217 carries (6.5 YPC). Zeke will be facing the nation's #1 ranked rush defense allowing a paltry 88 yards per game. If Ohio State wants to win it appears they will do so through the air. On the other side Bama runs a well-balanced offense led by TJ Yeldon and Amari Cooper. Yeldon had a down year based on expectations, but Cooper bounced back and delivered an outstanding season. Cooper finished with 115 receptions good for over 1600 yards and 14 touchdowns. Statistically Ohio State ranks 15th in total defense and 21st in points allowed at 21.2 pts per game. Considering they didn’t play very many offensive minded teams I think that number could have been worse. Never the less after going through what OSU went through this year with injuries and still finished as one of the best teams in the country says a lot more about their staff, players, and program. The Tide got embarrassed in last year's Bowl game, will it happen again?
Players to Watch
(Bama) Blake Sims, TJ Yeldon, Amari Cooper
(OSU) Cardale Jones, Ezekiel Elliot, Devin Smith
Fantasy Analysis
This is a very interesting game. One, it’s the last game on the docket and there is nothing better than snuggling up with a few cold one watching your fantasy score move from bad to good. The trick is you will have to choose wisely. Considering the two defenses going in this game, the fact that Vegas put the total near 60 should speak to you. As much as I'd like to cash in on the Zeke gravy train the risk facing Bama's run D is simply not worth it. Would I be surprised if he had a good game? No, but there are enough choices out there that it just doesn’t make sense to roll Zeke. I think Jones could really surprise some people in this game and I'm all about using Jones and Smith as my double bubble contrarian GPP connection. I don’t think either will be high starts and if it hits you will create some nice separation from the field. Bama has a few guys that represent strong value. Yeldon had a bad year (sort of), but this is big game and he's a big player, oh, and I love his price on DK. Cooper is a stud, period. You're gonna pay up, but if you can fit him he should serve you well. – OSU wins by a FG.
Game Preview
Ahhh, TGIF. After a crazy New Year's Day of games things settle down a bit today. Honestly, the only game I care to watch is KST vs UCLA, but that’s not on until 6:45pm EST. Until later you will have to get your fix watching Houston take on Pittsburgh. Pitt finished the year with an upset win at Miami and they will look to ride the momentum wave against the Cougars and their feisty defense. The Panthers have two key players on offense that will likely determine outcome of the game. James Connor is a big bruising back who stands 6'2" 250lbs and can be a real load to take down if he gets to the second level. Houston will really need their 31st ranked rush defense to play up a few levels. Connor finished the year with over 1600 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns on 277 carries. Connor is no stranger to receiving 30 plus carries in a game and you can expect Pitt will give him the rock as often as it needs too. When they're not handing off to Connor they are getting the ball to their dynamic play maker, Tyler Boyd. Boyd can boogie with the best of em and making big plays is his specialty. Houston is a good, but not great team. Their offensive (60th) and defensive (19th) are respectable, but in terms of quality wins, not so respectable. Their road victory at Memphis is their best win. They beat up on the scrubs, but struggle with teams that can match their talent and Pitt can match their talent. Houston does a little of everything on offense, but Pitt will have to track the duel threat ability of Greg Ward Jr or he will burn them on the ground. Farrow is the between the tackle back and Jackson is a little bit of a dash guy. You can expect to see a heavy dose of both. Greenberry is a solid talent at WR, but he may find little room against Pitt's 19th ranked passing defense. This will either be a high scoring game or a total snooze fest.
Players to Watch
(Pitt) James Connor, Tyler Boyd
(Hou) Greg Ward Jr, Kenneth Farrow, Deontay Greenberry
Fantasy Analysis
Another game that just doesn’t say much to me. Both teams rank better defensively than they do offensively and sometimes that can result in some sort of stalemate. This could turn into a field position battle with both teams keeping things conservative on offense. Connor is pretty much a beast and will get his, but at his price he needs to score and points may be at a premium. Boyd is an awesome GPP play, but in terms of cash games I will look for safety elsewhere. The same goes for Houston. Farrow will see the most volume, but will he score? You could do worse, but I likely won't be playing Farrow too much. I really won't be playing anyone from this game this game too much. Boyd will see a fair amount of my GPP lineups, but few of my cash lineups. It gets even cloudier on the Cougar sideline. All their guys are really tough to insert with any amount of confidence. Uggg, just move on.
Game Preview
Im not sure if I love the name or hate it, but either we gots more football to consume, analyze, and regurgitate. Taxslayer Bowl, really? Whatever. We have basically moved on from the exciting games and/or teams, but it’s still football and im still going to watch Iowa take on Tennessee in the Taxslayer Bowl. How many times you think I can squeeze in Taxslayer Bowl in this post? Neither team is overly exciting to watch, but at least Tennessee has some young up and coming talent. Joshua Dobbs is a fine QB and may develop into a real threat amongst the college ranks. Dobbs only played in 5 games, but in those games he accounted for 14 touchdowns with 6 coming in the ground. That’s not a bad average to have. Jalen Hurd is young talented back and really didn’t emerge as the lead back until the second half of the season. Hurd was a little banged up at the very end of the year, but is expected to be 100% and could have a nice day. Iowa is led by savvy veteran Jake Rudock and the big bruiser Mark Weisman. Weisman only ran for 800 yards, but he found pay dirt 14 times. My guess is Jake won’t be playing on Sundays, but he serves his purpose on Saturdays. Never spectacular, but rarely awful, Rudock just runs the offense and takes care of the ball. Iowa is about average on offense with an above average defense. Tennessee ranks poorly on offense, but the starters you will see in Taxslayer Bowl weren’t the same guys all year. The real key is if Dobbs can handle the spotlight of a Bowl game or will the inexperience shine through. I think his talent will rise to the top and Tennessee ekes out a slim victory in the Taxslayer Bowl.
Players to Watch
(Tenn) Joshua Dobbs, Jalen Hurd, Pig Howard
(Iowa) Jake Rudock, Mark Weisman
Fantasy Analysis
I looked at Dobbs long and hard and he may still find his way into some of my lineups, but I’m just not sure this is the matchup to trot him out there. Iowa is better against the pass and Dobbs isn’t exactly polished in that department to begin with. Sure, he can make plays with his legs and ultimately that could pave the way for him, but it seems a little risky. Hurd is totally in play, but more so because of his price. He is way underpriced considering his upside. Hurd found his way into my King of the Campus lineup so take that for what it’s worth. Moving on.
Game Preview
This is a very interesting game. UCLA is led by Brett Hundley and by all accounts he will be the best player on the field by a country mile. No disrespect to Tyler Lockett (more on him later). Hundley plays the premium position in football so he already gets a bump in value, but factor his measurable and you see why he is the best player in the Alamo Bowl. He stands 6’3” 222lbs, nice size for a QB and he can move, but that’s not to say he is a running QB. Hundley completed over 70% of his passes on the year, which doesn’t happen by accident. He doesn’t have the gaudy passing numbers, but I think that should reflect poorly on Hundley for a litany of reasons (litany = I just saved 5 minutes of your life by summing up my long winded explanation in one word). K-State is well above average as a team defense, but not so much at defending the pass. Hundley doesn’t have a ton weapons to chuck it too, but it’s been that way all year and he’s found a way to get it done. Hundley may be the best player on the field, but Tyler Lockett is the best play maker. Lockett is small in stature, but he plays like a giant. He takes handoffs, he returns kicks, and most of all, he finds the holes in the defense. If UCLA lets Lockett get loose it will be a long day for the Bruins. I think in the end Hundley finds a way to sneak a win. Tight game, but not as tight as the Taxslayer Bowl.
Players to Watch
(KST) Jake Waters, Tyler Lockett
(UCLA) Brett Hundley, Paul Perkins
Fantasy Analysis
This game offers some decent options. I think Hundley will decent performance and should be considered across all formats. His ability to pass or run makes him a tough player to game plan against. Paul Perkins is like CD (Certificate of Deposit) – it’s a crappy return, but it’s a guaranteed return. Perkins seemingly does the same thing every game regardless of opponent, but volume is an issue. Payton and Duarte are decent options, but nothing special. Stay away from K-State running backs, but Sexton and (obviously) Lockett are squarely in play.
Game Preview
As Friday inches towards an end we have one final game to put you to bed, Washington vs Oklahoma St. I don’t know, does it feel like we have been through too many bowl games to really care anymore? The Championship game is really the only thing people are looking forward too at this point. Not me, I live for this stuff. Both these teams are bit weird. They look great one week and terrible the next. Washington is probably the better team, but this one should be fairly close. Freshman quarterback, Mason Rudolph, will look to build off his victory over, in-state rival, Oklahoma. The jury is still out on Rudolph, but if last game is any indication he could really surprise this Huskie secondary, which ranks 115th against the pass. Probably a bigger issue for Oklahoma St. than the offense is their defense. They rank in the bottom quartile in total defense and are especially bad against the pass (106). I wouldn’t call Washington a passing team by any means, but they have the weapons to beat ya if you’re sleeping. This one will be closer than the experts think, but not as close as the Taxslayer Bowl.
Players to Watch
(Wash) Cyler Miles, Jayden Mickens
(OklaSt) Mason Rudolph, Desmond Roland
Fantasy Analysis
This game could see a ton of points on the board and you will want exposure if and when the fireworks go off. Rudolph is super sneaky play and I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if he is part of the winning formula. The Okie run game is suspect at best and Washington’s secondary couldn’t stop me or anyone else, so Rudolph has the opportunity to go bananas. He is super cheap too. Brandon Sheperd was Rudolph’s favorite target and could be a connection you will want to invest in. Washington is a solid team, but in terms of DFS, it’s kind of blahh. Mickens is a solid low end receiver, but they just spread the wealth too much too really key in on a guy. Don’t love the Huskies
If you want to see how these plays and some others fit into cash game and GPP lineups for Thursday and Friday 1/1-1/2 you can purchase a CFB pack that includes:
5 DK Thurs-Fri Lineups
2 FD Thursday Lineups
3 FD Friday Lineups
for $5 by clicking the PayPal button below. This service is separate from our NFL and NBA projection systems.
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I purchased the lineups for $5 but how do I access them?