Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 12/30/14

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Point Guard

Ty Lawson - FD 8900 DK 10000 DFSTR 6400
Though we might be accused of overweighting the upside of a player facing off against the Lakers look no further than some of these metrics. The Lakers are allowing a whopping 21% more scoring than league average to opposing point guards along with 18% more assists. This is born out of LA's consistently taking bad shots leading to fast breaks going the other way. Lawson makes a solid cash game play tonight as his floor should be high based on the pace and defensive inadequacies of the opponent.

Jarrett Jack - FD 5600 DK 5900 DFSTR 4300
The Nets don't appear interested in bringing Deron Williams back to the starting lineup any time soon and his loss is Jarrett Jack's gain. Jack's been solid in the starting lineup and his price refuses to climb enough. That's a good thing and though I'm a little worried about the minutes just one day disappearing because D-Will comes off the bench and gets hot, for now I think you can keep it going. The Bulls haven't been good against point guards this season and I'm not letting that matchup dissuade me.

Stephen Curry - FD 10100 DK 11000 DFSTR 8900
More of a GPP option because the Warriors might win this thing by 300 but Curry has some upside against a weaker defense if there's any chance in hell that Philly can keep it close. I don't suspect the latter happens, but on the off chance they keep in the running then Curry could really eclipse this tag.

Strongly consider Elfrid Payton who is looking more comfortable in the starting role.
 

Shooting Guard

Arron Afflalo - FD 5100 DK 6200 DFSTR 5100
Fair warning: I've never actually played Arron Afflalo in a game when he's been good. I try to forget this little piece of bias when I'm making lineups, but man is it tough. Whenever I zig with him, he zags. But the price and matchup are almost too good to pass up here. The Lakers are bad against shooting guards almost any way you cut it and Afflalo should have plenty of opportunities to score. It's the scoring for Afflalo that is so important because he doesn't do a whole hell of a lot else.

Marco Belinelli - FD 4200 DK 4000 DFSTR 3500
Started last game and continues to see heavy doses of minutes. Those should still be there tonight with Parker out again. Like Afflalo above, Marco needs the shot to fall in order to hit value. That hasn't happened too much over the short term. And it's a little funny to throw him in there against a team like Memphis. But this is a guy coming in awfully close to the minimum getting 30 minutes of run in a game that should stay close. There's value in that.

Victor Oladipo - FD 6100 DK 5800 DFSTR 6100
The Pistons are pretty rough on defense and haven't been great against shooting guards on the season. Dipo is often a popular cash game play from the position because unlike the guys above, he doesn't rely completely on scoring. He's versatile like that. That being said, he isn't exactly the safest guy in the world. The turnovers are a real thing. But I like getting him in the mid tier tonight against a Detroit team in transition.

Consider Kobe Bryant whose price continues to drop (with good reason). But he will have a night when he pours in some scoring.

 

Small Forward

Shabazz Muhammad - FD 6000 DK 6200 DFSTR 4900
We saw a good example the other night of what happens when Shabazz doesn't get enough shots up. Things get real rough, real quick. He needs to be chucking and getting to the basket. It's his volume that had him destroying his prices when Brewer was traded. Last game was a predictable blowout against the Warriors. I'm not as worried about it tonight against the Jazz. Few other small forwards in this price range get up as many shots as Shabazz. Love him for cash games tonight.

Wilson Chandler - FD 6000 DK 6500 DFSTR 5000
The other night I looked down my lineups when everything locked and saw that Wilson Chandler was in every single one of them. Then I just started praying. He obliged with a fantastic performance against the T-Wolves. He's playing huge minutes for the Nuggets and as long as the shot is falling is repeatedly crushing these prices. Those salaries have climbed a bit in the short term based on performance but he's still coming in at value considering the opponent.

Nicolas Batum - FD 6000 DK 6600 DFSTR 5600
I like him a lot more if Lamarcus Aldridge sits again with the sniffles. Batum is one of the guys who sees increased scoring opportunities with the big guy out. He was well on his way to value the other night except the Blazers were just housing the Knicks and Batum didn't see the minutes. But the shot was falling which is a great sign for his injury concerns.

Strongly Terrence Ross if Landry Fields is still out. And Lebron James if you've got a ton of money.

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Power Forward

Greg Monroe - FD 6400 DK 7300 DFSTR 6100
However he felt about Smoove as a person, Monroe has to be ecstatic from a basketball perspective that Smith has exited stage Detroit. Monroe's minutes are now locked in and his price hasn't climbed out of the arena from when he was a huge question mark every night. Tonight he'll face off against foul trouble in the human form of Kyle O'Quinn. Monroe has a serious advantage here and I'll be playing him in every single one of my lineups. Power forward has been a constant problem this season and guys like Monroe in this price range make the decisions much easier.

Kenneth Faried - FD 6500 DK 6900 DFSTR 5200
In two PF formats it will be all Faried and Monroe for me. For once, this will be a pretty easy position. Faried has been a total beast the last three games and no matter what Brian Shaw thinks about the dude, he'll be hard pressed to reduce Faried's minutes in the short term. It's only ever been a minutes thing for the Manimal. I'm not worried about it now and that security comes just in time for him to face the woeful Lakers.

Consider Kyle O'Quinn and Markieff Morris but honestly, I'm not getting too far away from the two dudes above.

 

Center

Marc Gasol - FD 9200 DK 9500 DFSTR 8100
Center is very shaky and speculative tonight. Some our system's value plays have serious question marks muddying the waters. That's why I'm willing to spend a little out of the value zone on a guy like Gasol. The last three games with Z-Bo out of the lineup Marc has taken over, averaging 24/10/5 and basically becoming the superstar we already knew he was. Instead of speculating where Z-Bo's lost usage would go (Leuer, Koufos, etc) we should have just known it would end up in the hands of the All-Star center.

Joel Freeland - FD 4000 DK 3600 DFSTR 3000
If you want to go the cheap route, consider Freeland if Aldridge is out again. The last two games, when Joel's seen 25 or so minutes with the starting unit, he's averaging an 8/13 which obliterates these prices. Again, Lamarcus needs to be out again. But if so, Freeland strikes me as pretty safe all things considered.

Mason Plumlee - FD 6900 DK 8000 DFSTR 5000
Still starting. Still a value. Plumlee's been pretty much awesome since joining the starting five and has given the Nets every reason to totally forget about Brook Lopez. The matchup against the Bulls isn't great obviously, but Plumlee's production has been so damned consistent and it's worth it to note that the Bulls haven't been their usual shut-down selves against starting centers.

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