Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 12/25/14

Merry Christmas! Or Hannukah. Or, holidays. Let's just talk basketball.

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Point Guard

Derrick Rose - FD 7100 DK 6900 DFSTR 5700
The former MVP draws the most favorable match-up in basketball - being a point guard against the Lakers. They play fast, they don't care, and aren't talented. That pretty much sums it up. And what I really love about Rose here? He put together two nice games on this price against far better defensive teams in his last 2. If he averaged 27 points (regular points, not fantasy) against the Raps and Wiz, what could he do against the Lakers with all eyes on him? I'm blushing thinking about it.

Russell Westbrook - FD 11300 DK 12000 DFSTR Gulp. It ain't easy paying such a premium for Westbrook, given that we were just taking him for $1,500 less than this last week. So what's the case? Well, it's hard to imagine Westbrook not absolutely torching a gimpy Tony Parker on Christmas. And with Durant out, the Thunder need to win every single game that they can. This will mean Westbrook, Westbrook, and more Westbrook. Now, I don't know if I can give him to you in a GPP format because it's just hard to have upside on these prices, but Westbrook will most certainly fill it up here if you can save elsewhere with your punts.

Kyrie Irving - FD 7600 DK 9300 DFSTR
Irving's priced has dipped down to the point where he's actually any intriguing play again. While I don't know if he'll ever be a pass first point guard, it's a welcome sign to see him setting a career high in assists two games ago (with 11) and playing a much more efficient game. But the usage is down. Way down. The flipside? Irving plays 37+ minutes in most games. That's a lot of run. He's put together nearly 5x in his last two games, and could quietly put together another high assist game in what rates to generally be the Lebron show.

It's worth noting: Tony Parker appears to be accidentally $3k on DraftKings tonight? Seems like a pretty clear mistake. Probably need to play him there, assuming he's going. Also, keep an eye on Kirk Hinrich. If he's out, Aaron Brooks is an interesting punt.

Lastly - I'm looking at Reggie Jackson. With Durant out, he's been the primary minutes beneficiary.

Shooting Guard

Jamal Crawford - FD 5000 DK 4700 DFSTR 5800
A normally shallow position, SG often takes a bath on a short slate. Christmas is no exception. But there is one cream of the crop option from my perspective - Crawford. Since his bounceback game against Denver, Crawford has seen an uptick in minutes, and has posted 25+ fantasy points in each of his last 3 games. Golden State has played tougher D this year, but one area they really struggle is preventing opposing shooting guards from making buckets. They've allowed 11% more points than league average to opposing two-guards. Since points are pretty much how Crawford makes his living, this looks like a really safe spot.

Bradley Beal - FD 6500 DK 6400 DFSTR
Beal is interesting to me, because his sudden interest in crashing the boards combined with his 2-3 steals a game is raising both his ceiling and his floor. While the Knicks play a slow pace, Iman Shumpert's absence is crushing their ability to defend opposing shooting guards. This match-up reminds me of the match-ups with the Clippers and Jazz earlier this month, and a 35+ fantasy point performance is definitely in play.

Dwyane Wade - FD 8800 DK 8400
I sort of hate buying into narrative, but if Wade can go, is there any chance he doesn't go all out against Lebron and the Cavs? With Bosh gone and things looking a lot like the pre-Lebron days, Wade should put together a ridiculous usage rate in this one. I'm a little concerned about the injury stuff, but our projection system likes Wade well enough regardless of narrative.

Also considered: Jimmy Butler
 

Small Forward

LeBron James - FD 10500 DK 11800
LeBron hasn't really been performing on these prices recently, but our projection system pictures a break-out. And I guess I probably don't need to sell the story to you - his first game back to Miami, squaring off against his former Robin, etc. etc. From a quantitative perspective, Miami has been below average against opposing small forwards this year, and their rotating cast of characters at the position is going to have a heck of a time sticking the reigning MVP.

Luol Deng - FD 5900 DK 6500 DFSTR
Deng draws the short stick when it comes to defensive match-ups in this one, but I highly suspect he'll see the continued usage bump with Chris Bosh missing. The Heat really doesn't have any other options. Since Bosh has been out, Deng has posted 5x on this price in 4 of the last 6 games. I think that the game will play at a faster pace than usual due to heightened emotions, and that Deng will fill in his usual role quite nicely.

A big cliff: It's hard to pick the position after the top two guys, for me. Our projection system likes Pierce and Butler, but I'm not so sure. Melo has looked decent since coming back. Kyle Anderson starts for Kawhi, but might not get the full run of minutes. Meh. I'll play Lebron and Deng, in all likelihood.

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Power Forward

Tristan Thompson - FD 4800 DK 5100 DFSTR
Simply a case of the wrong price for what he can do. With Varejao gone for good, Thompson will almost certainly be 25% more expensive than this in a few weeks. Thompson really thrived in the starting lineup earlier this season, and will generally draw the opposing team's worst big man with Love and James on the floor with him. The Heat are incredibly thin in the front court, and Thompson should pay 4-5x easily.

Pau Gasol - FD 8700 DK 9000 DFSTR 8000
The Lakers! They've allowed 11% more points to opposing PFs this season, and there's the whole revenge game thing going on as well. I imagine the Bulls will be pleased to give him the ball early and often, especially because he'll be opposed by be below-the-rim Boozer.

Tim Duncan - FD 9300 DK 8900 DFSTR 8600
The Big Fundamental has been playing out of his mind recently, posting numbers that would match up with anyone this side of Anthony Davis. For all of Ibaka's defensive renown, the Thunder have allowed 6% more points than league average to opposing PFs, and been league average in terms of allowing rebounds. And Ibaka's high-octane athleticism isn't exactly the antidote for Duncan's skill-set. I think Duncan posts a monster, especially with Leonard out once again.

Also considered: Amar'e Stoudemire

Center

Steven Adams - FD 4500 DK 4400 DFSTR
Just like all of the Thunder, the Big Kiwi sees an uptick in usage with Durant out, as opposing defenses ultimately learn that Westbrook will shoot 95% of the time unless triple teamed. While a lot of Adams' buckets will come in the form of put-back dunks and other easy stuff around the rim, who cares? He's averaged almost 10 boards a game in his last 8, and should be able to continue this against the Spurs on Christmas.

Joakim Noah - FD 7500 DK 7000
It's a weird day for centers. DeAndre is expensive, the Heat, Spurs, Knicks, and Cavs don't start a fantasy player at the position, Gortat's minutes are all over the place, and Jordan Hill has been horrible. Who does that leave? Joakim Noah! I like the match-up with Hill quite a bit, and the up-tempo game should help Noah pay this fairly safely via boards, blocks, and buckets.

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