Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 17 - FanDuel, DraftKings, Draftday, and Draftster

Another nice week here at the DFSR, with top sleeper Jonathan Stewart paving the way for cashes in most GPPs and cash games. But now? A week 17 quagmire. Who will play? Who will sit? It's hard to say, especially this early in the week. That being said, here is our best guess, with the full caveat that you're going to need to check the news as the holiday week progresses.

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Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers - FD 9800 DK 8600 DD 15750 DFSTR
Peyton Manning - FD 9600 DK 8600 DD 15800 DFSTR
Of all of the big name QBs this week, Rodgers and Manning are the two guys who seem to have the most to play for. Both of them can clinch a first round bye with a win. And since their games are taking place at the same time as the games that they need to know about, we should see their best foot forward. So which would I choose in a vacuum? It's tricky, because both Oakland and Detroit have been similar against the pass this year... but give me Rodgers, simply because Detroit is so darned good against the run. It's close either way, though, because the Lions clearly have more to play for than the Raiders. I'd be happy with either of them in a cash game, to be honest.

Russell Wilson - FD 8600 DK 7500 DD 15650 DFSTR
If you're looking for upside this week, definitely take a hard look at Wilson. The Seahawks have a lot to play for in this game, and Wilson obliterated the Rams by land and by air for 37+ fantasy points in October. The Rams have nothing to play for, and Wilson should be able to run wild.

Ben Roethlisberger - FD 8100 DK 7300 DD 14350 DFSTR
Well, you never know exactly what you're going to get with Big Ben. It seems like he's here one game and gone the next, and how a given team has performed against the pass hasn't totally mattered. So why are we recommending him against the Bengals? Well, Roethlisberger put up 350 yards and 3 TDs against them earlier this month, and the Steelers will play their round 1 game at home with a win in this one. I expect that the Steelers will go for it, and if any of the black and gold get a rest, it will be Le'Veon Bell, and not Big Ben.

Cam Newton - FD 8300 DK 7500 DD 14500 DFSTR
I frankly didn't know I still had it in me to recommend Newton. Good to know I still have a pulse. In case you missed it, Newton has averaged 29 fantasy points in his last two games, and he's rolling in to Atlanta with a chance to miraculously repeat as the NFC South champions. In a dome with the whole season on the line, I think we see some vintage Auburn Cam - pulling out all the stops and carrying the ball 15 times en route to a Panthers division championship. Beyond the narrative? The Falcons have allowed 300 more passing yards than the next worst team against the pass this season. They're dead last. Newton should shine here.

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Running Backs

Arian Foster - FD 8600 DK 7900 DD 14050 DFSTR
Of all of the big name running backs, Foster has the best combination of opponent and likelihood he'll get the carries. "Case Keenum" isn't going to be winning any awards this season, and the Texans still have an outside shot of making the playoffs. The Texans won't be taking any chances - Foster could get 30-35 touches against the league's 7th worst rush defense.

Jonathan Stewart - FD 6600 DK 5700 DD 9100 DFSTR
Well, we gave you Stewart in our week 16 sleepers article, and he paid off big time. And for some reason, the sites are still sleeping on him. While I think this will be the Cam Newton show, the Panthers are quite likely to slow down the Falcons' air attack by pounding Stewart yet again. Even as Cam has come back into prominence, Stewart's touched the ball 20+ times. While Atlanta is worse against the pass, they're no great shakes against the run, either, and I think Stewart is one of the safer RBs going in a clear do or die game for the Panthers.

C.J. Anderson - FD 8300 DK 7000 DD 13150 DFSTR
Anderson saw a whopping 26 touches - 8 of those receptions - in the Broncos' loss to Cinci in week 16. With a ton of playoff implications, the Broncos seem quite likely to pound CJ early and often against an Oakland team that struggles more against a good ground attack than they do through the air. It's implausible to think that the Broncos will be trailing, and if they are up, Anderson should be the one who grinds the Raiders through the final painful moments of the 2014 season.

Joique Bell - FD 7200 DK 6000 DD 11450 DFSTR
I'm all about grabbing guys in games that matter, and Bell is certainly in one of those. If the Lions win, they get a first round bye. Period. With Stafford looking lost recently, and Green Bay's ability to defend the pass and cause turn overs, I think they'll make their best effort to make this a low scoring game. That means they'll need to control the ball. While Reggie Bush's re-emergence is far from a welcome sign, Bell is still the sturdier of the two options, and I view him as pretty darned safe for cash games.

Le'Veon Bell - FD 9400 DK 9500 DD 18050 DFSTR
Speculation is that Bell will get his full run in week 17, though I view it as somewhat risky. The upside, though? I think we all remember Bell's earth-shattering 44 fantasy point soul crushing of the Bengals in their last meeting. If it becomes clear that Bell is going to get his full run as the week chugs along (and again, I suspect he will given the high profile of the game and the home-field implications), Bell could once against be the highest individual fantasy performer in week 17.

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Wide Receivers

Odell Beckham Jr. - FD 9200 DK 9600 DD 16550 DFSTR
This young man is just a pleasure to watch. And while my rule is to favor playing guys in games that matter, I don't think there's any chance the Giants pull the only exciting thing about their team from the fans' view in week 17. Beckham has 25 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games, and to my mind is both the safest and highest upside receiver of week 17.

Demaryius Thomas - FD 9000 DK 8500 DD 14350 DFSTR
While he lacks Beckham's transcendent upside (simply due to the total number of options the Broncos have), I still view Thomas as the second safest high priced guy this week. He's the 2nd most targeted receiver in the league, and again, this game absolutely matters for the Broncos. While Sanders caught the TDs last week, Thomas has twice as many red zone targets this season (an incredible 34).

Roddy White - FD 7000 DK 6300 DD 10700 DFSTR
With Jones continuing to suffer from various ailments, White has continued to draw a ton of attention from Matt Ryan. With a lot of value elsewhere carrying a high price tag, White represents an awfully cheap price tag for a guy who should see 9-10 targets in a game that matters. And this time of year, playing in a dome really helps ball-catchers as well. Roddy's easily the safest guy in the $7,000 range on FanDuel this Sunday.

Kelvin Benjamin - FD 7400 DK 6200 DD 10000 DFSTR
If you're looking to catch lightning in a bottle in a GPP, look no further than Kelvin Benjamin. Benjamin has been targeted 12 or more times in 4 of the last 5 weeks, and if the Falcons do put up some points early, he'll be the guy the Panthers employ to get them back in the game. The problem with Benjamin, of course, is the rate that he and Cam actually connect on those targets - his 5/12 from week 16 will attest to that - but no WR in his price range possesses the upside that Benjamin does against the league's worst passing defense.

Marques Colston - FD 6200 DK 5600 DD 9150 DFSTR
Kenny Stills - FD 6000 DK 6000 DD 9150 DFSTR
A once promising season has gone to hell for the Saints. While the Saints are eliminated from the playoffs, however, there's no early indication that they won't show up and give it a shot against the Bucs and their 6th worst pass defense. I expect Jimmy Graham to be absent from this game as the Saints look toward next year, but both Stills and Colston have something to play for. Stills will try and cement himself as a real receiver in this league, and Colston needs 50 yards to put up 6 consecutive seasons of 900 yards. I'm not sure I love either in a vacuum, but if you're going to spend up elsewhere, you're going to have to save some money somewhere, and both of these two make reasonable options.

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Tight Ends

The Pats have cinched things up in the AFC East, which makes tight end even less certain than usual! Thankfully, we're here to help.

Jermaine Gresham - FD 5200 DK 3200 DD 7300 DFSTR
Andy Dalton looks utterly broken out there right now - totally afraid to try and go down the field to AJ Green (0 catches on 4 targets last week) or even over the middle to Sanu (1 catch for 16 yards). That left Gresham, who caught 9 balls for 63 yards and a touch down. I think the Bengals will try and do whatever they can on the ground in this game, but I'd be shocked if Gresham didn't get at least 8 targets. He's also one of the few TEs plaiyng in a game that matters. This is what passes for safety in today's NFL at the tight end position.

Martellus Bennett - FD 5700 DK 5300 DD 10500 DFSTR
This is totally contingent upon Cutler playing, but if he does, you can go ahead and read everything I wrote about Bennett last week before Clausen happened. With Marshall out of the picture, both Bennett and Jeffery stand to see a big increase in targets. And while the Bears have nothing to play for, I imagine they'll still show up to the field and go through the motions from down to down. For my money, Bennett has the best upside by a mile of the TEs priced under $6k, if only because it's the worst year ever for tight ends.

Zach Ertz - FD 5400 DK 5100 DD 8100 DFSTR
So, Zach Ertz got 18 targets last week. I have no idea. It doesn't seem like that's likely to continue, but it felt negligent to not let you know. I imagine the Eagles will be plenty pleased to try and give the Giants a sour ending to the season, and I don't know why Ertz would disappear after being so heavily targeted last week.

Kickers

Just a strategy note on kickers, since I figure I'll share what's working well for me this season.

I've been taking kickers against teams that don't have spectacular defenses in decent weather conditions. I don't look at the kicker's individual "skill" at all, just opportunity. Typically kicker will be the very last spot I fill, and while there are situations I'll avoid (I wouldn't play kickers against Seattle, for instance, or any team that's a 6.5 point or more underdog), I think you can justify playing just about any other kicker in a GPP format especially. Don't sweat this too much - just pick a guy that fits in with the rest of what you want to do and go from there.

Defense & Special Teams

The Denver Broncos
It's a combination of the Broncos playing for something, the Raiders having won their personal super bowl last week, and the Broncos actually having a pretty good defense. The Broncos have allowed the 2nd fewest running yards this season, which means it will be up to Derek Carr to get the job done. Lots of balls in the air could mean a pretty happy Broncos secondary.

Houston Texans
The Jaguars have been one of the most generous offenses to opposing fantasy defenses all season, and now they are faced with A) the fact that losing would benefit them and B) a Houston team that has an outside shot of playing in January. The Jaguars will start Toby Gerhart at running back, and Blake Bortles at QB. Bortles has averaged 174 yards passing per game in the last 5 games. Gerhart has tallied 3.3 yards per carry this year. I love the Texans here for safety and upside.

Miami Dolphins
As strange as it sounds, I think the Jets' Super Bowl was almost beating the Pats last week. Defeated and deflated (and better off with a loss than a win), the Jets will travel to Miami to play against a Dolphins team that would likely appreciate the moral victory of ending the season on a high note and over .500. The Jets passed for 65 yards in their last meeting with Miami. I think we see a monumental blowout, here.

Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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