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Game Preview
Bowl season opens in what should be an evenly matched game between Nevada from the Mountain West and UL Lafayette from the Sun Belt. Bowl games can be tricky since often the two teams likely played a majority of their games against a different quality grade of opponents. My guess is ULL would not be 8-4 had they played in the Mountain West, but here they are as a slight favorite playing in their home state. The latter can be a nice boost for a bowl game. Cody Fajardo is only the 2nd quarterback in college football history to pass for 9,000 yards and rush for 3,000 yards. The other is fellow Wolf Pack member, Colin Kaepernick. Nevada must put something in the water. As I have said all year, Fajardo is the kind of QB I like to hitch my wagon to. Any quarterback that offers some ground game raises his floor and when they have a nice passing day they will typically crush their price. On the other side you have the ever-so-dynamic Elijah McGuire and the hard-nosed Alonzo Harris. Harris picks up the tough yards between the tackles and begins to wear down defenses as it gets late in games. McGuire can take it to the house from anywhere on the field and is equally dangerous out of the backfield. They will be a tough duo to contain for Nevada. Terrance Broadway does not have a talented group to throw the ball too, but he is a savvy senior and can make plays when he is called upon.
Players to Watch - Nevada:
Cody Fajardo - FD 11000 DK 8300
Don Jackson - FD 6700 DK 5300
Players to Watch – Louisiana-LA:
Elijah Mcguire - FD 8000 DK 8200
Alonzo Harris - FD 5800 DK 5100
Fantasy Analysis:
I don’t like the way this game shapes up on paper. Both teams like to run the ball and both teams excel at stopping the run compared to the pass, although Nevada kind of dipped towards the end of the year and are statistically barely above average. Neither team is the 85’ Bears, but it’s still something to consider when structuring your lineups. I’m most comfortable with McGuire, as he can be utilized in the passing game to help mitigate the risk against an okay run defense. Both teams lost top wide outs to injury during the year and while one would think the extra targets would boost viability of the remaining receivers, it really hasn’t. At the end of the day price reigns supreme, so we’ll see if any of these guys fall into a price range you can get down with.
Game Preview
The second bowl game on the docket and the second Mountain West team. This time around it’s Utah State (UTST) up against Texas El Paso (UTEP). The best player on field will be Aaron Jones from UTEP, but it quickly stops there for the Miners. UTEP deploys a run heavy attack utilizing Jones on all accounts, but UTST has been well above average at stopping the run most of the year. A one dimensional UTEP offense could have real difficulty moving the ball against UTST. Utah St. has had some QB injuries during the year that has forced some offensive philosophy changes. Utah State’s best offensive weapons are its two receivers, Sharp & Natson, but the inconsistent passing attack has really hampered their game. UTST has since become more of a running team and you should expect the same against UTEP.
Players to Watch-Utah St.:
Kent Myers - FD 8000 DK 5900
JoJo Natson - FD 7000 DK 5500
Players to Watch-UTEP:
Fantasy Analysis:
This game does not offer many fantasy options, especially for cash games. Jones is tempting, but you can expect Utah St. to stack the box and force Showers to beat them with his arm. As good as Jones is I think there is too much risk compared to the field. Utah St. does not have an offensive weapon that dominates and while I think they score around 30pts, I couldn’t tell you where they are coming from. I do like Natson, as he is used out of the backfield and in the passing game. He has been their best offensive threat since Myers took over.
Game Preview:
Another bowl game and another Mountain West school. This time the Rams from Colorado State take on the Utes from Utah. This game features the second highest total on the board at 58 and should be a fun one to watch. Utah deploys a strong run game in the form of Devontae Booker and Colorado St can air it out with the best of them. Booker is a talented back and can do it all. Colorado State is going to have to figure out how to stop him or it could be a long day. Utah, much like UTEP, struggles to pass and you can expect CSU to crowd the line to slow down Booker. Most teams have tried and most teams have failed. On the other side Utah won’t be able to stack the box or drop into coverage. The Rams find more success through the air, but run a balanced attack. Higgins is the one of the best receivers in the country and Utah is going to find out just how good come 3:30pm.
Players to Watch - Utah:
Travis Wilson - FD 6500 DK 5600
Devontae Booker - FD 8200 DK 8400
Kaelin Clay - FD 5300 DK 4500
Players to Watch – Colorado St.:
Garrett Grayson - FD 10000 DK 7800
Dee Hart - FD 8400 DK 8300
Rashard Higgins - FD 10400 DK 10800
Fantasy Analysis:
There a few viable options from this matchup. Higgins is expensive, but worth the price. He simply dominates when he’s out there. Yes, Utah will try to limit him, but so has everyone else. Dee Hart on the other hand is not worth the price. He is far from consistent and his tag is in the elite level, something he is not. Grayson is good and probably decent value, but he won’t find a ton of my lineups. Booker is high on my list as I think Utah will give him the rock 30 plus times. Or at least they should. His ability in the passing game helps raise his floor as well. Tonga is one of the better TE’s on the board.
Game Preview:
Hey, another bowl game and another Mountain West team. The Air Force Falcons square off against the Western Michigan Broncos. Air Force, as always, will rely upon their misdirection option offense with the occasional pass sprinkled in. The Broncos have a well balanced offense with some talent to go with it. Franklin is one of the better backs in the country and arguable the best in the MAC, although many will argue Kareem Hunt (Toledo) holds that title. Air Force won’t be able to focus soley on Franklin, although that will likely be atop their priority list, because WMU has a pair of decent receivers and a capable QB to get them the ball. Davis & Braverman make a solid due and have held their own throughout the year, more Davis than Braverman.
Players to Watch – Western Michigan:
Zach Terrell - FD 7400 DK 7700
Jarvion Franklin - FD 8700 DK 8800
Corey Davis - FD 8100 DK 8600
Daniel Braverman - FD 5500 DK 5700
Players to Watch – Air Force:
Kale Pearson - FD 8100 DK 6400
Jalen Robinette - FD 5400 DK 4100
Fantasy Analysis:
The four players from WMU can be used in cash games and/or GPP formats, but with the guys from AF it gets a little less clear. Pearson is expected back from injury and always makes for an okay choice given his rushing abilities, but I would want a reliable injury update before safely using him. Robinette is cheap enough that you can consider him in play and Griffin is a decent choice at TE. Brown is strictly a GPP play. While this game doesn’t feature the highest Vegas total I think this will be the highest scoring game of the day and I like the Four Horseman from WMU.
Game Preview:
The final game of opening night and finally and game that does not feature a team from the Mountain West conference. When you have a game featuring two .500 teams it really makes you wonder if we need so many dang bowl games. BG comes into the game ranked above average in both passing and rushing offense, but the eye test tells me a different story. Their passing offense has struggled at times this year and there is no indication that will change this Saturday. The Falcons of Bowling Green will likely utilize their talented backfield led by Travis Greene. South Alabama enters the bowl game at exactly .500 and something tells me they are little more excited to be here than BG. Teams from the MAC expect to play in bowl games, playing in the Crampton Bowl is likely not what BG set their sights on. Bridge has enough ability to pass the ball and BG ranks 118thagainst the pass, but I still think they stick their ground and pound style and take advantage of BG’s better, but still terrible, 101stranked run defense.
Players to Watch – Bowling Green:
Brandon Bridge - FD 7400 DK 6000
Terrance Timmons - FD 6000 DK 4100
Kendall Houston - FD 5100 DK 3800
Players to Watch – South Alabama:
Travis Greene - FD 6500 DK 6000
Fantasy Analysis: While I’m not overly excited to watch the game (I will anyway), I do like some of the value this game offers. Timmons & Houston are near basement prices at RB and both seem to get the ball quite a bit. Timmons is clearly the more talented back and is a lock to return as the starter next year. Houston is technically the starter and gets a few more carries as such, but his unique ability to do basically nothing with them is second to none. Despite Houston’s lack of production I still think he is viable given his price and opponent. Travis Greene is one of the best value plays across the board. He is having a down year (for his standards), but has rushed for over 100 yards in back-to-back games. I think BG feeds him early and often. His price is still reflecting his midseason slump, which can partially be attributed to a minor leg injury. Greene is healthy again. Play him.
If you want to see how these plays and some others fit into cash game lineups for Saturday 12/20/14 FanDuel and DraftKings you can purchase a CFB pack that includes five FanDuel lineups and five DraftKings lineups for $5 by clicking the PayPal button below. This service is separate from our NFL and NBA projection systems.
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